WI: The Rye House Plot Had Been Successful?

[Kellan Sullivan]

OTL, that the Rye House Plot - that is a plot to murder BOTH Charles II andhis brother, the duke of York - failed had a lot to do with timing. A fire in Newmarket caused the king and duke to return home early,and the plot was thwarted.

But what if there'd been no fire and Charles and James HAD been murdered/whatever it was the plotters planned for the succession. What happens in England now?

@VVD0D95 @isabella @Valena

 

[VVD0D95]

OTL, that the Rye House Plot - that is a plot to murder BOTH Charles II andhis brother, the duke of York - failed had a lot to do with timing. A fire in Newmarket caused the king and duke to return home early,and the plot was thwarted.

But what if there'd been no fire and Charles and James HAD been murdered/whatever it was the plotters planned for the succession. What happens in England now?

@VVD0D95 @isabella @Valena

Chaos I tbink. A lot of people will be searching for the culprits. Rhe perps will be divided between either putting Monmouth on the throne, declaring a republic or putting mary on the throne

 

[isabella]

Chaos I tbink. A lot of people will be searching for the culprits. Rhe perps will be divided between either putting Monmouth on the throne, declaring a republic or putting mary on the throne

Agreed. Caos would surely follow that and we can not know what will happen with the succession

 

[VVD0D95]

Agreed. Caos would surely follow that and we can not know what will happen with the succession

Agreed. Could definitely see the Dutch and rhe French taking advantage

 

[NedStark]

Imagine a country having 2 regicides in less than 2 decades...

 

[Mikestone8]

Chaos I tbink. A lot of people will be searching for the culprits. Rhe perps will be divided between either putting Monmouth on the throne, declaring a republic or putting mary on the throne

The perps won't get to decide. The Army and the Lords-Lieutenant of the Counties would all be for Mary. The perps would be arrested and publicly disembowelled.

 

[VVD0D95]

The perps won't get to decide. The Army and the Lords-Lieutenant of the Counties would all be for Mary. The perps would be arrested and publicly disembowelled.

Fair

 

[JamesHunter]

Imagine a country having 2 regicides in less than 2 decades...

TBF at least this one would be the more "normal" kind as opposed to putting the King on trial and executing him. Its unclear how well things would go for the plotters however as they don't seem to have planned to well and (unlike the events of five years later) they may not be able to count on mass public support. While the balance of probability is that Charles was a Catholic (or at least extremely sympathetic to them) by this point there isn't the ability to stir up hatred as there would be with an open Catholic like James, who in any case has two Anglican daughters and seems unlikely to produce a son so the usual reasons to do nothing still hold at this point (as they would until Prince James was born). Add in its only thirty years since a vicious civil war ended and they need more than this to justify doing in a King for the second time in two generations and get control of the country.

Obviously the big question is Dutch support; can they get it, and can they justify the (inevitable) demand from William that he rule with his wife and with full powers without the "imminent threat" of an ongoing Catholic dynasty? Incidentally I assume (alongside reasons like ruling alone) the plotters probably would have found or manufactured "proof" Charles was a Catholic as well to bolster the case for murdering him?

 

[NedStark]

The perps won't get to decide. The Army and the Lords-Lieutenant of the Counties would all be for Mary. The perps would be arrested and publicly disembowelled.

William would then claim the power. And given England's naval and army strengths under the Stuarts, William would most likely get his way.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

who in any case has two Anglican daughters and seems unlikely to produce a son

I never understood this "mentality" of the people in 1688, that JFES was a "changeling" because James couldn't father kids anymore. He and Katherine Sedley had had a kid as recently as '85/86 IIRC, and Mary of Modena was only 30. Henrietta Maria had been older than that when Minette was born and despite the whole ECW going on, nobody ever alleged Minette was a changeling.

William would then claim the power. And given England's naval and army strengths under the Stuarts, William would most likely get his way.

Would he? Or would Monmouth be able to garner more support locally. True Charles II is dead with no chance of "posthumously legitimating" his eldest, but a dead Charles also can't refute the allegation that Jem Monmouth isn't legitimate. Not to mention the fact that Jem was able to have support for his OTL rebellion would suggest that he does have a chance. After all, Will deliberately screwed Monmouth over to get a rival out of the way (making noises about supporting Jem then said support not materializing; not to mention thoughtfully supplying a list of Monmouth's co-conspirators in the Hague to his uncle/father-in-law). Which would suggest that at least some foreign governments certainly saw Jem as an alternative.

That said, Jem, while a good commander, was also not the brightest crayon in the box politically (that was his wife, FWIG), so it could be interesting to see how it shakes out. OTL, William had an invading army and local support (plus a rival who was Catholic). Here, William has an invading army, presumably very little local support, and a rival who's a Protestant. That Jem's a bastard is awkward, but not insurmountable. William has no kids, so when he dies, who gets the throne? Jem's got several by this point (IIRC). Not to mention that in 1688, William had had time to "prepare", in 1683, the Plot would've been sudden, so little to no prep. Equally, in 1688, William had foreign support (including from the pope and the emperor), would he have that in 1683?

 

[Mikestone8]

William had foreign support (including from the pope and the emperor), would he have that in 1683?

He wouldn't need it. Those who were loyal to James n 1685 would now be loyal to Mary. The English army wouldn't disintegrate as in 1688. OTOH William would have no excuse to bring a Dutch army with him, so would probably have to settle for being Mary's Consort.

 

[pompejus]

so would probably have to settle for being Mary's Consort.

Which he wouldn't. In that case he will probably stay in the Netherlands.

Mind you, I think that something similar to the marriage between Philip II and Mary would occur, giving William at least quiet a lot of influence and power. That said, I suspect that unless he can actualy be king in both name as well as power, he would probably spend a lot more time in the Netherlands than in England.

 

[VVD0D95]

Which he wouldn't. In that case he will probably stay in the Netherlands.

Mind you, I think that something similar to the marriage between Philip II and Mary would occur, giving William at least quiet a lot of influence and power. That said, I suspect that unless he can actualy be king in both name as well as power, he would probably spend a lot more time in the Netherlands than in England.

Probablt a lot better for Mary, as orl, people started grumbling about William and his Dutch followers

 

[JamesHunter]

Probablt a lot better for Mary, as orl, people started grumbling about William and his Dutch followers

He'll still be the power behind the throne (just at one remove as he's busy elsewhere most of the time) and it will probably still settle the Anglo Dutch conflict. Obvious question is would this avert the second hundred years war? Or would Anglo French relations still get bad enough for repeated warfare even without William directly stirring the pot?

I never understood this "mentality" of the people in 1688, that JFES was a "changeling" because James couldn't father kids anymore. He and Katherine Sedley had had a kid as recently as '85/86 IIRC, and Mary of Modena was only 30. Henrietta Maria had been older than that when Minette was born and despite the whole ECW going on, nobody ever alleged Minette was a changeling.

No legitimate births in nearly two decades so people had gotten used to the idea that the Protestant succession was secure on Mary and Anne. Adding in that James was 50 and most probably figured "Well it won't be for long and he won't be able to do much." Then he has a son (who he intends to raise Catholic) while setting off the bomb of English bigotry with a move towards some tolerance. In an environment like England of that time it was never going to end well...

 

[VVD0D95]

He'll still be the power behind the throne (just at one remove as he's busy elsewhere most of the time) and it will probably still settle the Anglo Dutch conflict. Obvious question is would this avert the second hundred years war? Or would Anglo French relations still get bad enough for repeated warfare even without William directly stirring the pot?


No legitimate births in nearly two decades so people had gotten used to the idea that the Protestant succession was secure on Mary and Anne. Adding in that James was 50 and most probably figured "Well it won't be for long and he won't be able to do much." Then he has a son (who he intends to raise Catholic) while setting off the bomb of English bigotry with a move towards some tolerance. In an environment like England of that time it was never going to end well...

I think things may get tense, given England’s colonial interests but I can’t see the, getting quite as heated as otl without William there to stir 5ings.

ivr always wondered why no one thought to simply kill james ii off and have james iii under a Protestant regency?

 

[JamesHunter]

I think things may get tense, given England’s colonial interests but I can’t see the, getting quite as heated as otl without William there to stir 5ings.

ivr always wondered why no one thought to simply kill james ii off and have james iii under a Protestant regency?

William was still likely to show up and try and enforce his wife's rights. Worse the country is already very unstable and you'd have a two decade long regency led by regicides. Given its only 40 years since the last regicide its a public relations nightmare.

 

[VVD0D95]

William was still likely to show up and try and enforce his wife's rights. Worse the country is already very unstable and you'd have a two decade long regency led by regicides. Given its only 40 years since the last regicide its a public relations nightmare.

I suppose it depends on who is the one on the regency, after all, I imagine Anne would be on the council, and regicide could be hung erc no?

 

[Mikestone8]

I think things may get tense, given England’s colonial interests but I can’t see the, getting quite as heated as otl without William there to stir 5ings.

ivr always wondered why no one thought to simply kill james ii off and have james iii under a Protestant regency?

That point had also occurred to James, which was why he was so quick to flee the country.

 

[isabella]

@Kellan Sullivan: keep in mind who the rumors was diffused by people who had everything to lose from the birth of James‘ son and others believed it as they trusted the sources (James II’s daughter Mary was told by her sister Anne who baby James was not truly their half-brother)

 

[VVD0D95]

That point had also occurred to James, which was why he was so quick to flee the country.

I deed but only in December, before that he was happy as larry