WI The Russians Take Constantinople in 1829

In the summer of 1829, Russian troops moved into the Ottoman Empire, and came within 40 miles of Constantinople. When his generals asked for the go-ahead, the Tsar chickened out. But what are the consequences if the Russians move on the city and, most likely, win? Will the Ottoman Empire collapse afterwards? And if it does, how would this affect the balance of power in Europe, and the world?
 
I think the British might actually get involved on the Ottoman side like they did in the Crimean War. Of course they would have to get involved before the Russians actually capture the city. Then it would turn into an earlier version of the Crimean War. The Russians might gain ground in the balkans, but the British will do whatever it takes to keep the Ruskies from getting access to the Med.
 
I think the British might actually get involved on the Ottoman side like they did in the Crimean War. Of course they would have to get involved before the Russians actually capture the city. Then it would turn into an earlier version of the Crimean War. The Russians might gain ground in the balkans, but the British will do whatever it takes to keep the Ruskies from getting access to the Med.

The huge problem is this is the middle of the Greek Revolution. Britain and the other Western powers were currently attempting to leverage Greek independence, and western fleets had trashed the Turkish and Egyptian fleets at Navarino two years prior. Sure, they can certainly decide to support the Ottomans... but Western opinion, awash in pro-Greek sentiment was pretty against the Turks. I can totally see Britain and the west doing nothing and instantly regretting it later. Sure, the Greeks will get their freedom, but at what cost?
 
I can totally see Britain and the west doing nothing and instantly regretting it later. Sure, the Greeks will get their freedom, but at what cost?

The cost is bound to be catastrophic. Just think of it! Russians sailing their ships through the straits without having to fight a war over it first every time! :p
 
I smell a Russowank TL:p

No seriously, it´s going to be a cold war with lots of hot war. Containment of Russia would be the top priority of british foreign policy.

Ottoman empire collapses earlier but not immediatly. Maybe the result of a war between Britain and Russia leads to a Turkish puppetstate.

I wonder how it effects Japan, China and Iran later on. I can imagine Britain seeing some benefits in a stronger China.
 
A lot of Muslims die. That's for sure. I wouldn't know if the Russians have the means to hold on to the city.

Well, the war has to be fought, and the plundering will be bad at first, but in 1829 nobody has the means to carry out industrial ethnic cleansing, if that's what you're alluding to.

I'm not sure Russia can even leverage much more out of it even if they take Constantinople, other than winning lots of fame and drawing lots of atttention to themselves.

They might gain protectorate over the Danubian principalities, Greece may get a boost in its independece quest, maybe the Russians demand some Gibraltar-like entity to allow passage through the straits without having to rely on a mere treaty - and that's the best of worlds for the Russians, tbh.
 
well.... here's a possibility. perhaps with applied diplomatic pressures (threats of war after the war) during treaty, the western powers might manage to make russia agree to give constantinople to the greeks. maybe to sate the russians they get special trading rights or something

is this possible?
 
I actually wonder if the Russians were actually hold the city. For once, it'd be an exclave. It looks ugly on maps, but that's beside the point. As RGB was just telling me, 1829 is too early for any industrial style cleansing. We're not going to see an Orthodox and Greek Constantinople restored. If anything, I imagine the Russians extracting terms out of the Turks: some boundary changes in the north and possibly in the Caucasus, the Greeks finally gain their independence, and at most perhaps the Danubian Principalities come under Russian protection and tribute. Nationalism in the Balkans didn't yet exist aside from in Greece (which was a totally different situation, with Greece having been in contact with the Enlightenment and it's ideals). In the rest of the Balkans Nationalism was still in the proto-crystalized state. an independent Bulgaria won't spring from this victory, for instance.

Besides, control over Constantinople for the Russians. It was never a practical part of their foreign policy. It was often leveraged for propaganda purposes but I wonder if they actually took the city, they'd keep it. Or if they would even want it. They'd probably simply use it for leverage for other goals and return it. The capture would be a grave loss for the Ottomans... but they aren't going to collapse. Maybe Muhammad Ali could make a gambit to take over the whole empire in the 1830s, and replace the Sultans. But the empire isn't going to collapse and disintegrate. It's not going to collapse because simply, what would replace it?
 
You're probably right but it doesn't mean there wouldn't be no bloodbath. The Russians might take Constantinople for themselves or create a puppet state to control the Straits.
 
Maybe Give Constantinople to Greece in exchange for unrestricted Russian use of the straits and Naval Bases on Aegean Islands?
Wouldn't that make the new Greek state horrifically overstretched? Assuming you make Constantinople contiguous with the rest of the Greek state, you have a huge amount of Turks in the new state who arn't going to appreciate Greek rule too much, especially when the Greeks havn't even conquered the areas themselves. Its much too early for a Greaco-Wank.

It seems like one of the big winners from an Ottoman collapse (which was possible if they were hit hard enough, the Ottomans were very vunerable in the early 19th century, and after their 1829 defeat in OTL, they were barely sovereign) would be Mehmet Ali Pasha. He could pose as a champion of the Muslims of the empire defending them from encircling Christian powers, and the British might support him in this effort to create a new buffer against Russian ambitions in the Middle East. However, I don't see it as very likely that he gets to Constantinople as the Russians will be far too powerful for him to challenge directly, however he may pose.
 
A reminder: The Russians are not going to want the Ottomans to collapse because then who will they negotiate with? How will the negotiation results be enforced without an Ottoman authority? The Russians don't have the time and money to do that, not with how pissed off Britain and friends are going to be.
 
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