WI the Russian steamroller actually happens 1914-5

Galba Otho Vitelius

I was uncertain about doing this, other than the title question being clunky, to get this to happen you probably have to change Tsarist Russia to the point where you are overwhelmed by butterflies.

But it might be fun to discuss anyway. What if the Russian steamroller really happened in 1914-5, and the Tsarist Army had the same success as the Red Army in 1944-5? Meaning they are sitting in Berlin and Vienna in 1915?
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't know if you're a war gamer, but I'd really suggest trying out the game "1914: Twilight in the East". It is the single best modeling of WW1 I've ever come across for 1914 and by far the best on the Eastern Front I've seen. Super tedious and tough to play, but if you want accuracy you're coming to get mind-numbing complexity. In that came the issue of logistics and WW1 combat basically turn the entire Eastern Front into a giant shoving match, especially when you consider that radios mostly did not exist outside of the army-army group level; communications were one of the biggest problems, especially invading enemy territory, because you lose contact with advancing units, while the enemy has land line telephones to communicate with. Getting WW2 style quick victory offensives is impossible and even with a mass advance of multiple armies you end up with a nightmare of logistics, open flanks, communication breakdown, and the reality that you can't really just steamroll an opponent except on open ground and with vast numerical superiority. The Russians tried to 'steam roll' in East Prussia in August-September 1914, Central Poland in late Autumn 1914, and in the Carpathians in winter 1914-15. They all failed miserably and it turns out a much more flexible army using interior highly developed rail lines and good intel will just hit you on your weak flanks and kill you when your own communications were a mess. More than just about anything it was the inability for the Russian 2nd Army HQ to stay in touch with it's corps that resulted in the disaster of Tannenberg. In the Carpathians weather and terrain added the defenders in holding the line, resulting in around 1 million Russian casualties. So the Russian steamroller was basically a myth in the again of rail roads and land lines, because the defender could redeploy by rail and stay in communication via land line, while the advancing Russians had to rely on foot and horse and lacked radio to stay in mobile communication. You can point your steamroller in one direction and ride it to oblivion, because turning it isn't an option.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
wiking said:
I don't know if you're a war gamer, but I'd really suggest trying out the game "1914: Twilight in the East". It is the single best modeling of WW1 I've ever come across for 1914 and by far the best on the Eastern Front I've seen. Super tedious and tough to play, but if you want accuracy you're coming to get mind-numbing complexity. In that came the issue of logistics and WW1 combat basically turn the entire Eastern Front into a giant shoving match, especially when you consider that radios mostly did not exist outside of the army-army group level; communications were one of the biggest problems, especially invading enemy territory, because you lose contact with advancing units, while the enemy has land line telephones to communicate with. Getting WW2 style quick victory offensives is impossible and even with a mass advance of multiple armies you end up with a nightmare of logistics, open flanks, communication breakdown, and the reality that you can't really just steamroll an opponent except on open ground and with vast numerical superiority. The Russians tried to 'steam roll' in East Prussia in August-September 1914, Central Poland in late Autumn 1914, and in the Carpathians in winter 1914-15. They all failed miserably and it turns out a much more flexible army using interior highly developed rail lines and good intel will just hit you on your weak flanks and kill you when your own communications were a mess. More than just about anything it was the inability for the Russian 2nd Army HQ to stay in touch with it's corps that resulted in the disaster of Tannenberg. In the Carpathians weather and terrain added the defenders in holding the line, resulting in around 1 million Russian casualties. So the Russian steamroller was basically a myth in the again of rail roads and land lines, because the defender could redeploy by rail and stay in communication via land line, while the advancing Russians had to rely on foot and horse and lacked radio to stay in mobile communication. You can point your steamroller in one direction and ride it to oblivion, because turning it isn't an option.
Click to expand...
Very useful information! Indeed, thanks for sharing this information, Wiking! :)

Also, does this mean that Russia's bad performance in World War I was essentially predetermined?
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

One note of caution. During World War II, the Germans and Austro-Hungarians launched the Golice-Tarnow offensive east of Krakow on May 30th, 2015. In two months they pushed the Russians out of Galicia (and the Russians had taken less time to overrun Galicia), and by September 30thth, four months later, had reached a line roughly along the Tarnopol -Barnovichi (west of Minsk) - Riga axis. The line on March 30th ran roughly along Memel - Warsaw -Krakow.

Obviously things went a lot more quickly in World War 2, the Germans covered pretty much the same territory in under two weeks during Barbarossa.

However, more or less the same distance in four months of the summer of 1915, going the other way from the frontline, puts the Russians in Budapest and Berlin. This suggests the logistical problems of making such an advance could be overcome. The Russians just got beat.

Now you can protest that the German army was so much better than the Russians at this or that, but that is the point. The POD is that the Russian army has its act together compared to the German army at least as much as the Germans did over the Russians IOTL, and gets lots and lots of luck.
 

Karelian

You'd need a pre-1900 POD, a Czar with a keen understanding of military affairs, willingness to break age-honored traditions and by sacking a lot of important nobles his predecessors has appointed, and enough internal stability to give time for the reforms to have effect.
As it was, the OTL Russian Army of 1914 had failed to enact such ground-breaking solutions as setting up military-owned tanning agent and uniform factories to manufacture stockpiles of boots and uniforms for reserves.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Galba Otho Vitelius said:
One note of caution. During World War II, the Germans and Austro-Hungarians launched the Golice-Tarnow offensive east of Krakow on May 30th, 2015. In two months they pushed the Russians out of Galicia (and the Russians had taken less time to overrun Galicia), and by September 30thth, four months later, had reached a line roughly along the Tarnopol -Barnovichi (west of Minsk) - Riga axis. The line on March 30th ran roughly along Memel - Warsaw -Krakow.

Obviously things went a lot more quickly in World War 2, the Germans covered pretty much the same territory in under two weeks during Barbarossa.

However, more or less the same distance in four months of the summer of 1915, going the other way from the frontline, puts the Russians in Budapest and Berlin. This suggests the logistical problems of making such an advance could be overcome. The Russians just got beat.

Now you can protest that the German army was so much better than the Russians at this or that, but that is the point. The POD is that the Russian army has its act together compared to the German army at least as much as the Germans did over the Russians IOTL, and gets lots and lots of luck.
Click to expand...

The Germans hit a exhausted Russian Army. They hit a division size element in the flank with a full corp. The Russians were low on reserves and supplies. Morale had suffered due to attacking in high mountains in winter.

In 1914, the Russians attack Germany on the defensive on terrain the Germans had been planning to fight on for a couple decades. There is a big difference in attacking an exhausted army and a fresh army on well understood terrain.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
BlondieBC said:
The Germans hit a exhausted Russian Army. They hit a division size element in the flank with a full corp. The Russians were low on reserves and supplies. Morale had suffered due to attacking in high mountains in winter.

In 1914, the Russians attack Germany on the defensive on terrain the Germans had been planning to fight on for a couple decades. There is a big difference in attacking an exhausted army and a fresh army on well understood terrain.
Click to expand...
So, if Russia mauls Austria-Hungary and the Germans can't intervene in time, can Russia advance all of the way up to Budapest (against the exhausted and mauled Austro-Hungarian Army, of course)?
 

Deleted member 1487

CaliGuy said:
So, if Russia mauls Austria-Hungary and the Germans can't intervene in time, can Russia advance all of the way up to Budapest (against the exhausted and mauled Austro-Hungarian Army, of course)?
Click to expand...
Logistics via the Carpathians demonstrate that there is no such thing as the Russians advancing more quickly than German intervention.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
wiking said:
Logistics via the Carpathians demonstrate that there is no such thing as the Russians advancing more quickly than German intervention.
Click to expand...
So, having Russia break out into the Carpathian Plains was never a real possibility, correct?
 

Aphrodite

Karelian said:
You'd need a pre-1900 POD, a Czar with a keen understanding of military affairs, willingness to break age-honored traditions and by sacking a lot of important nobles his predecessors has appointed, and enough internal stability to give time for the reforms to have effect.
As it was, the OTL Russian Army of 1914 had failed to enact such ground-breaking solutions as setting up military-owned tanning agent and uniform factories to manufacture stockpiles of boots and uniforms for reserves.
Click to expand...


there aremany pods quite late that would give Russia a much greater military capablity. Even a departure of 1910, could make the Russians the masters on land by 1914- unless it so alarmed Austria andd Germany into striking first

For example, keeping naval spending at the 1908 level would free up 500,000,000 rubles before 1914. That would solve all their supply problems

The also had about 400,000,000 in petty cash Spending that on their railroads and infrastructure would have them at the 1917 level

Or they could of imported weapons and raw materials rather than buy locally. This would have saved them aboutv80-100 million rubles a year

To give you some idea how much this would buy:

Rifles cost about 40 rubles
bullets 44 per thousand
76 mm guns- 1850 rubles
carriage 1500
shrapnel shell 7 rubles

Locomotives 20,000
Wagons about 1,000

The Russians could easily have been unstoppable without a very costly response from Austria and Germany
 

Aphrodite

wiking said:
Logistics via the Carpathians demonstrate that there is no such thing as the Russians advancing more quickly than German intervention.
Click to expand...

Not if we consider how the political interplays with the battlefield. WWI is really a struggle for allies and success on t he battlefield decides how the neutrals respond.

Assume a decisive Russian victory at Tannenburg and that they close the trap on COnrad in the South. Both are doable but require a lot to break the Russian way. NOw do the Ottomans join the war knowing that the Germans have been defeated in East Prussia and the Austrians are driven to the Carpathians? Doubtful

Do Romania and Italy sense that Austria is going down and they need to pounce now? Very likely.

The Bulgarians are not joining any war at this point either.

So how long do the Austro-Germans last without the Ottomans and Bulgaria and with Italy and Romania in the warearlier as well as suffering about an extra 300,000 casualities? Morale will quickly crumble and you could easily see the war over by Christmas with the Russians in the catbird seat.
 

Aphrodite

wiking said:
Read about that battle. It was physically impossible sans ASB intervention.
Click to expand...

Not at all and there are many threads at this site that would contradict you. For example, just sending recon aircraft to the north would have told Remmenkampf to punch throught the cavalry screen and bring about a collapse

Other PODs would be Zilinsky better coordinating the offensive, the first Army delaying their movement two days or the Germans trying to retreat acrossthe Vistula which they considered after Gumbenien. And these are oly PODs post August 1914
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top