WI: The Russian Empire collapses after WW1?

So basically, what if, instead of the Soviets taking power in 1917 and managing to keep Russia as a unified country Russia dissolved into a collection of smaller successor states following the end of WW1? What would those states be, how could they come about? One possibility, off the top of my head, is that
February never happens and Nicholas keeps Russia in the war until the country just breaks up. Another is that The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is never signed and The Germans overrun the nascent Soviet government. In this case I imagine that we see a lot of Bolsheviks hung and the various nationalist movements at the periphery of The Empire declare independence while a German backed rump state rules over the old Muscovite heartland.
 
It bit depends how war would end and how empire would collapse. But probably at least Finland and Poland would break up.
 
So basically, what if, instead of the Soviets taking power in 1917 and managing to keep Russia as a unified country Russia dissolved into a collection of smaller successor states following the end of WW1? What would those states be, how could they come about? One possibility, off the top of my head, is that
February never happens and Nicholas keeps Russia in the war until the country just breaks up. Another is that The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is never signed and The Germans overrun the nascent Soviet government. In this case I imagine that we see a lot of Bolsheviks hung and the various nationalist movements at the periphery of The Empire declare independence while a German backed rump state rules over the old Muscovite heartland.

But this is what happened OTL. The russian empire did collapse. And then the soviets regained control of the territories lost.
 
The Bolsheviks didn't keep Russia an unified country. The Bolshevik takeover directly triggered 5-6 declarations of independence and Russia's dissolution; later they managed to conquer some of the lands formerly part of Russia.

Also, break-ups usually don't suddenly come out of nowhere, they have their own logic and progression.
Note that OTL's break-up of Russia was gradual: the first revolution allowed a bunch of autonomous regional governments and power structures to be established as legal and (more or less) official entities within the Russian Republic. Then there was a second, Bolshevik revolution/coup, and those regional governments and power structures declared independence.

So if there's no February Revolution (let alone October), and those autonomous governments and parliaments are never established - how exactly are those new nation-states supposed to be born?
Born by some kind of violent revolt? That's extremely unlikely. The Russian Empire's peripheral nations didn't much like the Empire, but they sure as hell didn't want to be taken over by Russia's chief competitors either. With the Ottoman and German Empires ominously lurking in the background, they won't want to rock the boat - most if not all of them saw Russia as the lesser of two evils.
Born by CP victory and dictate? That's possible, but the Central Powers lost in OTL even though they knocked Russia out. Why would they be winning in this scenario?
 
I mean bear in mind that it took the most insane faction of all in Petrograd to actually split the empire into warring states, even when the Bolsheviks did seize power in the initial months it gained almost entirety of Russian empire under its control. It was German invasion and Czechoslovak mutiny that really balkanised Russia into red and white countries.

Even if Nicholas holds on with the support of the ruling classes, eventually at some point in 1917 Petrograd will seize power from him and the Soviet/Duma will probably gain the support of the vast majority of the empire, ethnic Russians and non ethnic Russians aswell as the army.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Bolsheviks didn't keep Russia an unified country. The Bolshevik takeover directly triggered 5-6 declarations of independence and Russia's dissolution; later they managed to conquer some of the lands formerly part of Russia.

Also, break-ups usually don't suddenly come out of nowhere, they have their own logic and progression.
Note that OTL's break-up of Russia was gradual: the first revolution allowed a bunch of autonomous regional governments and power structures to be established as legal and (more or less) official entities within the Russian Republic. Then there was a second, Bolshevik revolution/coup, and those regional governments and power structures declared independence.

So if there's no February Revolution (let alone October), and those autonomous governments and parliaments are never established - how exactly are those new nation-states supposed to be born?
Born by some kind of violent revolt? That's extremely unlikely. The Russian Empire's peripheral nations didn't much like the Empire, but they sure as hell didn't want to be taken over by Russia's chief competitors either. With the Ottoman and German Empires ominously lurking in the background, they won't want to rock the boat - most if not all of them saw Russia as the lesser of two evils.
Born by CP victory and dictate? That's possible, but the Central Powers lost in OTL even though they knocked Russia out. Why would they be winning in this scenario?
Radical idea, but what about a larger Entente intervention in the Russian Civil War in order to help more parts of Russia become independent (so that the Bolsheviks won't conquer these parts)?
 
Radical idea, but what about a larger Entente intervention in the Russian Civil War in order to help more parts of Russia become independent (so that the Bolsheviks won't conquer these parts)?

Why not? Then again - if the Entente countries can muster a significantly larger intervention than they could in OTL - why not try to overthrow the Bolsheviks with it, instead of nibbling at the fringes?
 
Any experts on the dissolution of the manchu Empire, the Subsequent failed Chinese Republic, and the Warlord era? We might gain some insight by a description how that happened?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Any experts on the dissolution of the manchu Empire, the Subsequent failed Chinese Republic, and the Warlord era? We might gain some insight by a description how that happened?
Is Stephen Rynerson a member of this forum? He looks like an expert on this topic and he posts on the AxisHistory forum.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Why not? Then again - if the Entente countries can muster a significantly larger intervention than they could in OTL - why not try to overthrow the Bolsheviks with it, instead of nibbling at the fringes?
Overthrowing the Bolsheviks and helping the new Russian government establish order in all of Russia afterwards is a (much) larger task than merely preventing the Bolsheviks from reconquering the fringes of the former Russian Empire, no?
 
Overthrowing the Bolsheviks and helping the new Russian government establish order in all of Russia afterwards is a (much) larger task than merely preventing the Bolsheviks from reconquering the fringes of the former Russian Empire, no?

Well, if they do manage to overthrow the Bolsheviks and secure the transfer of power to a White government, that's it. Everybody can go home, enjoy some rest, and no longer spend blood and money on the problem.
On the other hand, if they merely garrison the fringe lands against the Bolsheviks, they can't just go away - the Bolshevik threat isn't going away either. They'd have to stay and garrison them 5 years later, 10 years later...even as the Bolshevik state consolidates itself and grows stronger. An expensive task with no end in sight, and growing more and more expensive and/or dangerous each year.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, if they do manage to overthrow the Bolsheviks and secure the transfer of power to a White government, that's it. Everybody can go home, enjoy some rest, and no longer spend blood and money on the problem.
On the other hand, if they merely garrison the fringe lands against the Bolsheviks, they can't just go away - the Bolshevik threat isn't going away either. They'd have to stay and garrison them 5 years later, 10 years later...even as the Bolshevik state consolidates itself and grows stronger. An expensive task with no end in sight, and growing more and more expensive and/or dangerous each year.
Technically speaking, though, the White government needs to be sufficiently strong to consolidate its power throughout all of Russia.

However, your point here is nevertheless certainly a very valid one.
 
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