WI The 'Rough Wooing' ends in a bitter marriage?

perfectgeneral

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Scotland is defeated before France can make a difference and Mary is married off to protestant Edward VI in 1548. A youthful match of half siblings, but politically vital.

Could this have happened? What consequences? Would Elizabeth get to live?

Somerset's only undoubted skill was as a soldier, which he had proven on expeditions to Scotland and in the defence of Boulogne-sur-Mer in 1546. From the first, his main interest as Protector was the war against Scotland.[74] After a crushing victory at the Battle of Pinkie Cleugh in September 1547, he set up a network of garrisons in Scotland, stretching as far north as Dundee.[75] His initial successes, however, were followed by a loss of direction, as his aim of uniting the realms through conquest became increasingly unrealistic. The Scots allied with France, who sent reinforcements for the defence of Edinburgh in 1548
 
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Scotland is defeated before France can make a difference and Mary is married off to protestant Edward VI in 1548. A youthful match of half siblings, but politically vital.

Could this have happened? What consequences? Would Elizabeth get to live?

OK first of, Mary Stuart and Edward VI arr NOT half-siblings, their cousins. Mary Tudor and Edward VI are the siblings. Second of all, Why would Elizabeth's live be threatened? As for your question it depends. If it looks the Scots are going to be comepletly overrun and Mary would be captured, whos to say that Mary of Guise wouldn't be secreted away to France? Second of all, even if Mary is forced to marry Edward, will they have children? will Edward VI live longer or still die at 15? Third, if they live and have children, then we'll see an early Union of the Crowns. However, since this Union would be at gunpoint, I would guess that Mary would grow up to be resentful of Edward and England, similar to Anne of Brittany, and there would be definite uprisings in Scotland in favor of either Mary or a Stewart cousin.
 

perfectgeneral

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That will teach me to 'research' on twitterpedia.

Yes, Mary Stuart.

Mary Tudor, Lady Jane Gray and Elizabeth all had claims (?) to the thrown and in OTL Liz was under threat by rival factions as her claim got stronger.

The key question is the impact of the early forced union. Boulogne was still part of the Pale with Calais before the peace deal with France.

Does a more sucessful regent (Somerset) retain the reigns of power for longer? Rebellion from within the union is harder as the quelling forces can be based locally. An earlier British culture might change a few things too.
 
The quelling forces can only be placed locally to the extent there are Scots that support a personal union, really.

And there is no "British culture" naturally appearing from a personal union that is resented by the Scots.
 
Think the success of any personal union would largely depend on who was appointed regent of Scotland and their ability to control the realm.
The best bet is that Scots Parliament under Arran accepts the treaty of Greenwich in 1543 before war begins which in OTL they didn't pushing Henry VIII to declare war. Under that Mary was not to come to England until she was 10 in 1552.
Key players will be Arran (regent of Scotland and heir presumptive of Mary - he switched religions frequently and intially pro-English then pro-French), Cardinal Beaton (pro-French and was eventually murdered an arch rival of Arran's for the regency), the Queen Mother Marie of Guise (who took the regency in 1554) and Matthew Stuart Earl of Lennox (arch rival for the succession to Arran and married to Henry's niece Margaret Douglas).
In terms of what might happen - given the age of the young couple the chance of children before Edward's death are slim. Nor is the marriage going to extend his life as it was unlikely to have taken place before his 1553 death.
Mary's future might be significantly improved depending on her education as a future Queen of England rather than a future Queen of France - if the English get her across the border earlier than planned then it is likely her religious upbringing will mirror Edward's irrespective of her mother's view. If she stays in Scotland until 1552 it is likely that she will remain Catholic depending how much influence the English can exert and the political situation north of the border. No guarantees though and of course she will be much more politically aware of the Scots situation than she had been in France.
You do wonder what Edward's 'device' might have looked like if Mary had been protestant and in England at the time of his illness and death (which under the treaty of greenwich she would have been). Mary was excluded by Henry VIII's will but could have been an obvious protestant choice and would guarantee the council more years of minority rule in this tl instead of Jane Grey and that might put Mary Tudor in a very difficult position if she does unseat Mary Stuart who will of course still be a child in 1553.
As to Elizabeth - well one of Henry VIII and Arran's considerations was to marry Elizabeth to Arran's eldest son (Arran would continue to press the offer and even got the Scots Parliament to agree to the offer in 1559) and given no rough wooing it might have happened if Edward's council were keen to shore up its relations with the Scots regent.
 

perfectgeneral

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Thanks for that. I wonder if this could have led to a more lenient position on Catholicism, yet converts are notorious for being more zealous.
 
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