WI: the raid on scarborough is a decisivr german victory

In December 16th 1914 the German fleet sorted out and attacked the harbor at Scwrpbpruh. On the way home a British squadron of ten capital ships, mistakenly believing this to be a smaller segment of the fleet, skirmished with the German screen. The German commander, under strict orders not to risk his fleet, went home, thus arguably wasting Germany's best chance to seriously challenge the royal navy at sea- had they stood and fought they would have decisivelg outgunned the British, with 22 capital ships against ten on the British side.

Changing this would probably require different standing orders, but assuming the mercurial kaiser bill can be swayed to risk his toys, what would the broader ramifications of a major British defeat here be? Multiple sunk capital ships (probably not the whole squadron- relief and shelter are too close and I can't see the Germans sticking around for long- but with a bit of luck I can see the germana sinking at least the battlecruisers and maybe one or two of the bbs) on top of the raid would at this early stage seriously upset the balance of power at sea. It would also perhaps convince germany to invest more in the high seas fleet- not a winning strategy IMO, but delaying USW probably averts the Lusitania disaster for example. More significantly a british debacle this early on has significant implications. Does Gallipoli still happen? Does Italy still join the entente, or is their entry delayed or even averted? Do we see earlier upheavals in Ireland?
 
There is actually already a new thread on this:
 
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