WI: The Qing Dynasty survives until World War 1 and enters(with the central powers)?

What if the Qing Dynasty survives a couple more years and postpones its collapse just long enough to enter World War 1? The Qing Dynasty enters the war on the side of the central powers to get revenge on Japan for the First Sino-Japanese War, as well as Britain for the unequal treaties in the Opium Wars. Russia would have an absolutely massive front to defend against the Qing Dynasty, which would almost certainly help Germany. Japan would invade Manchuria and mainland China for earlier than in OTL, and would be very successful due to Japan's modernized military. World War 1 would be far bloodier than in OTL with a war in China. How deep would the Japanese push into China? Would it also descend into trench warfare? Would the British, French, and Siamese make a combined force to invade Qing China from the south? Would the Central Powers win World War 1 with a far more successful Eastern Front due to the massive border between Qing China and Russia? How would the post-war years be different with Japan invading mainland China almost 20 years earlier?
 
In the unlikely situation that the Qing reforms of the early twentieth century are enough to keep it going until WW1 (and assuming that proceed on schedule,) and assuming that the Qing are strong enough militarily to enter the war... they're far more likely to join the Entente.

Russia spent the 19th century playing an impressive double game of taking vast chunks of territory off the Qing while also being the closest thing they had to a Great Power patron. The Qing economy was largely based on loans from the City of London. The Triple Intervention was an anomaly in that regard.

More to the point, the only power that has territory that the Qing claim but doesn't have many troops to defend it is Germany.

So, even if we assume a much stronger Qing- there's no real reason for them to join the Central Powers. They'll either join the Entente early, in the hope of claiming German concessions, or late in the war like China did OTL, in the hope of getting a seat at the peace table. Or they'll simply stay neutral and enjoy a few years of limited foreign interference.
 
In the unlikely situation that the Qing reforms of the early twentieth century are enough to keep it going until WW1 (and assuming that proceed on schedule,) and assuming that the Qing are strong enough militarily to enter the war... they're far more likely to join the Entente.

Russia spent the 19th century playing an impressive double game of taking vast chunks of territory off the Qing while also being the closest thing they had to a Great Power patron. The Qing economy was largely based on loans from the City of London. The Triple Intervention was an anomaly in that regard.

More to the point, the only power that has territory that the Qing claim but doesn't have many troops to defend it is Germany.

So, even if we assume a much stronger Qing- there's no real reason for them to join the Central Powers. They'll either join the Entente early, in the hope of claiming German concessions, or late in the war like China did OTL, in the hope of getting a seat at the peace table. Or they'll simply stay neutral and enjoy a few years of limited foreign interference.
By all means, the most sensible decision would absolutely be to join the Entente or stay neutral. But this is the Qing dynasty we're talking about here, and they have a knack for making abolutely terrible decisions. Refusing to reform in the Hundred Days' Reform and funding the Boxers in the Boxer Rebellion are some examples of their terrible decisions. The Qing Dynasty made absolutely terrible decisions in World History, and I think they would not be so bright here as well. I think Japan would try and enter the war even earlier to try and make sure China won't get Tsingtao. By that point Qing China, being the terrible decision makers that they are, would have had enough of Japan at that point and entered the war on the side of the Central Powers.
 
They also made plenty of decisions that weren't stupid. It's easy to forget now, but between the fall of the Taiping and the Sino-Japanese War many outside observers thought they were witnessing a successful industrialization effort.
Besides, to have made it to WW1- and to do so while in a position to start a major war (rather than wink at the Boxers) supposes that one of two things has happened:
Either the reformers have stabilized the ship post Cixi, in which case they're extremely unlikely to join the central powers.
Or the state has been captured by the military under Yuan Shikai, in which case they're looking inward while he works out a way to have Pu Yi quietly abdicate in favor of the new dynasty.

I'm sorry, but I really don't think a Central Powers Qing is likely.

I think you need to be more sure of what you're asking-
Is it "What would a Qing China that survived to 1914 do in World War One?" To which the most likely answer is- not much, beyond possibly supporting the Entente.
Or is it "How does Qing China get to the point that it is strong enough to join a side in a World War, and does so against its traditional diplomatic interests?
Because the latter is interesting, but probably needs a POD in the nineteenth century.
 
I could imagine a large Japanese force being landed in Shandong to seize both the Chinese province and the German port of Tsingtao. I would expect that Japan would keep Shandong after the war, though it had to relinquish it back to China IOTL.

Whether Japan could successfully seize all of Manchuria... I doubt it. For one thing, Russia would never accept Japanese dominance in the region unless absolutely unavoidable, and would risk the European Eastern Front to occupy its own swathe of Manchuria. Of course, when Russia collapses (it it is a matter of when, not if), Japan could fill the vacuum, but they might end up too overstretched.

At the end of the war I envisage Japan in control of Shandong, the Liadong Peninsular, and parts of southern Manchuria bordering Korea.

A slightly different question... would Japan feel more confident in propping up the Far Eastern Republic if they gained control of parts of Manchuria earlier?
 
They also made plenty of decisions that weren't stupid. It's easy to forget now, but between the fall of the Taiping and the Sino-Japanese War many outside observers thought they were witnessing a successful industrialization effort.
Besides, to have made it to WW1- and to do so while in a position to start a major war (rather than wink at the Boxers) supposes that one of two things has happened:
Either the reformers have stabilized the ship post Cixi, in which case they're extremely unlikely to join the central powers.
Or the state has been captured by the military under Yuan Shikai, in which case they're looking inward while he works out a way to have Pu Yi quietly abdicate in favor of the new dynasty.

I'm sorry, but I really don't think a Central Powers Qing is likely.

I think you need to be more sure of what you're asking-
Is it "What would a Qing China that survived to 1914 do in World War One?" To which the most likely answer is- not much, beyond possibly supporting the Entente.
Or is it "How does Qing China get to the point that it is strong enough to join a side in a World War, and does so against its traditional diplomatic interests?
Because the latter is interesting, but probably needs a POD in the nineteenth century.
Good points you have made. I wasn't suggesting that every decision that Qing China makes is a mistake, but I am simply saying that they have had a knack, historically, for making very terrible decisions. The POD I would choose for this TL would be Yuan Shikai choosing to side with the Qing Dynasty in 1911. This would leave the Qing Dynasty in power, but it would be controlled by Yuan Shikai, who acts as a military dictator with the Qing monarchy as a mere powerless figurehead. Yuan already tried to make himself have complete power over China when he tried to reinstate a Chinese monarchy with the Yao Dynasty in 1915. In this timeline, Yuan is the defacto ruler who essentially has complete and total rule over China except in name only. Now, about the Chinese military: it wasn't completely backwards and it didn't have only 19th century technological weaponry. China underwent lots of military reform following their defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, leading to them reforming some military units. These units were known as the new army. The most successful of these unites was called the Beiyang Army. China's military, especially the Beiyang Army, had gotten a lot stronger since the First Sino-Japanese War, meaning that, at least from Yuan Shikai's perspective, China is militarily able to engage in a large-scale war. The Chinese army was far stronger in this time period than in 1895. Militarily, at least from China's perspective, they will do well. Because Japan would rush to get Tsingtao earlier due to potential Chinese entry with the Entente, Yuan Shikai's China would know that their military is far more modernized and would be able to survive a large-scale conflict. What do you think would have happened if the Qing entered the war on the side of the Central Powers? I really am curious about the greater Asian involvement in World War I.
Side Note: This is one of my first posts, so please don't be super annoyed if what I'm saying makes no sense. :)
 
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At the end of the war I envisage Japan in control of Shandong, the Liadong Peninsular, and parts of southern Manchuria bordering Korea.

A slightly different question... would Japan feel more confident in propping up the Far Eastern Republic if they gained control of parts of Manchuria earlier?
They'll have to back out for the same reasons they did OTL: financial issues at home, the pending Soviet threat focused on retaking it, and international pressure to withdraw.
 
They'll have to back out for the same reasons they did OTL: financial issues at home, the pending Soviet threat focused on retaking it, and international pressure to withdraw.
Would international pressure to withdraw even exist if China is part of the Central powers? I honestly don't think Britain and France would care as it would weaken a Central Power greatly. Russia of course would, but they would have to deal with defending the massive Russo-Chinese border and with the Eastern Front of World War I so much that I don't think they would have enough devotion to opposing Japanese dominance in East Asia.
 
Would international pressure to withdraw even exist if China is part of the Central powers? I honestly don't think Britain and France would care as it would weaken a Central Power greatly. Russia of course would, but they would have to deal with defending the massive Russo-Chinese border and with the Eastern Front of World War I so much that I don't think they would have enough devotion to opposing Japanese dominance in East Asia.
The Entente, UK in particular, never minded Japanese help but they were always dead set against an ascendant threat in the Far East. What do you think fueled Japanese militarism?
 
The Entente, UK in particular, never minded Japanese help but they were always dead set against an ascendant threat in the Far East. What do you think fueled Japanese militarism?
Yes, the British were opposed to Japanese total dominance in east Asia as shown in the British not supporting the 21 demands from Japan given to China. But if China was a Central power, I think the British would encourage the Japanese to invade more and more of China even though it was previously opposed. Something similar to this happened in the middle east in OTL, as Britain had previously staunchly opposed a Russian conquest of the Ottoman empire. When the Ottoman empire joined the Central Powers, however, the British told Russia that they would give Russia Constantinople and the strategic positions on the Bosphorus which Russia had desired before the war in exchange for helping the British with an attack on the Ottomans. (The Russians did help with their navy in OTL, but Russia never got Constantinople due to the failure of the Gallipoli Campaign)The Russians were unable to get it before due to British interest in maintaining the European balance of power.
 
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Yes, the British were opposed to Japanese total dominance in east Asia as shown in the British not supporting the 21 demands from Japan given to China. But if China was a Central power, I think the British would encourage the Japanese to invade more and more of China even though it was previously opposed. Something similar to this happened in the middle east in OTL, as Britain had previously staunchly opposed a Russian conquest of the Ottoman empire. When the Ottoman empire joined the Central Powers, however, the British told Russia that they would give Russia Constantinople and the strategic positions on the Bosphorus which Russia had desired before the war in exchange for helping the British with an attack on the Ottomans. (The Russians did help with their navy in OTL, but Russia never got Constantinople due to the failure of the Gallipoli Campaign)the Russians were unable to get it before due to British interest in maintaining the European balance of power.
Only desperation made the UK offer Constantinople. Asia was a sideshow I don't think would merit giving the Japanese that sort of foothold.
 
Asia was a sideshow I don't think would merit giving the Japanese that sort of foothold.

Would Britain risk war with Japan to expel them from China? Especially after such a devastating global conflict, perhaps one that lasted longer and cost more lives that IOTL. Britain wouldn't like Japanese expansion, of course, but whether there would be willing or (politically) able to do so is doubtful.

On a slightly different topic, I think we can expect the New Territories of Hong Kong being ceded in perpetuity to Britain. Could Portugal annex some land close to Macau to improve its defensibility (assuming they joined the war as IOTL)?
 
I can see Portugal gaining Macau, but there is no way China stays divided forever and Portugal's problems are still going to crop up down the road.

In fact, it's very likely the UK drifts away from Japan and gradually builds up China as a bulwark against Russian and Japanese expansion broadening the Great Game. Also, investment and aid would combat German and American influence. This may lead to a better situation for the Nationalists.
 
Good points you have made. I wasn't suggesting that every decision that Qing China makes is a mistake, but I am simply saying that they have had a knack, historically, for making very terrible decisions. The POD I would choose for this TL would be Yuan Shikai choosing to side with the Qing Dynasty in 1911. This would leave the Qing Dynasty in power, but it would be controlled by Yuan Shikai, who acts as a military dictator with the Qing monarchy as a mere powerless figurehead. Yuan already tried to make himself have complete power over China when he tried to reinstate a Chinese monarchy with the Yao Dynasty in 1915. In this timeline, Yuan is the defacto ruler who essentially has complete and total rule over China except in name only. Now, about the Chinese military: it wasn't completely backwards and it didn't have only 19th century technological weaponry. China underwent lots of military reform following their defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, leading to them reforming some military units. These units were known as the new army. The most successful of these unites was called the Beiyang Army. China's military, especially the Beiyang Army, had gotten a lot stronger since the First Sino-Japanese War, meaning that, at least from Yuan Shikai's perspective, China is militarily able to engage in a large-scale war. The Chinese army was far stronger in this time period than in 1895. Militarily, at least from China's perspective, they will do well. Because Japan would rush to get Tsingtao earlier due to potential Chinese entry with the Entente, Yuan Shikai's China would know that their military is far more modernized and would be able to survive a large-scale conflict. What do you think would have happened if the Qing entered the war on the side of the Central Powers? I really am curious about the greater Asian involvement in World War I.
Side Note: This is one of my first posts, so please don't be super annoyed if what I'm saying makes no sense. :)

Welcome to the site!

Certainly, if Yuan backed the Qing in 1911 it makes setting up his dynasty much easier.

But as I said before, there's still a fundamental problem with a POD that late- it doesn't give any reason for China to back the Central Powers. Yuan and his successors didn't try to historically. Why would they now?

If you want greater Asian involvement in WWI, don't look to China- look to the subcontinent. An Indian rising is difficult to engineer, but much more possible than a China that enters the Central Powers. Furthermore, there actually were German efforts at engineering one.

Also, far more than China- a front in India actually has the potential to massively divert British resources, whereas a Chinese front simply wouldn't threaten the Entente. The Russians and Japanese both outmatched the Beiyang Army individually, even during the war. Together, they'd smash it.
Plus, if Yuan was foolish enough to join the Central Powers it would almost certainly lead to a full civil war as the KMT and anyone else who put their hands up got given Japanese and British arms.

I'm not annoyed- as I said, it's a fascinating period for China. But there's nothing wrong with accepting that the original framing of the question may not be helpful. As I said before, if you want the Qing to join the Central Powers and be strong enough to make a difference, you really need a POD in the nineteenth century.

As a very rough handwave- a more successful self-strengthening movement leads to a narrow victory in 1895. Korea still probably leaves the Qing sphere, but the stalemate is seen as the teething pains of a modernising power rather than the revelation that China was a paper tiger.
Consequently, those Britons who believed that China is their natural ally in the region win out. There is no Anglo-Japanese alliance in 1902. The British continue to maintain economic influence, but Japan worries more and more about strategic isolation. With no great power backers, it backs down over the growth of Russian influence and never goes to war with the Czar.
The Qing continue to reform. Corruption remains rampant, but infrastructure is slowly developing. The end of the eight-legged examinations sees the co-option of more and more youthful talent into the bureaucracy- young men who would join the KMT in our timeline become the basis of a generation of modern mandarins. There is more and more tension, however, between the Manchu court and the powerful Han leaders of the civil service and military. Li Hongzhang is an unofficial regent for the first part of the twentieth century, but after he dies it becomes more and more clear that his protege Yuan Shikai wants to exercise power in name as well as practice.
For Korea's part, the next twenty years seem to go well. The newly-minted Empire remains in terror of annexation by one of its three most powerful neighbors, but cautious steps towards building a modern state continue. Korea slowly drifts towards Japan- its reformers caught between fear of becoming a colony and the knowledge that China and Russia are more likely to simply annex them.

Meanwhile, in Europe- because there is no humiliation of 1905, Russia is perceived as far stronger and more dangerous than it is. Germany behaves more cautiously, France more boldly. Franz Ferdinand has an uneventful trip to Sarejevo in 1914.
By 1917, Russia seems poised to overtake the Kaiserreich. It has had a decade of social upheavals, but nothing apparently crippling. There is probably a paper Duma. Britain is worried enough about clashes with Russia in the Straits, Central Asia and the Far East that it backs away from its understandings with the Entente.
Germany has come to believe that if it is to defeat the Entente it must move now. When a crisis breaks out- perhaps a Russian agitator named Trotsky throws a bomb at the funeral of Franz Joseph in Vienna- Berlin makes its move.
Within months, it's war. Germany and Austria-Hungary against Russia and France. Russia seems not to be quite as fearsome as it initially appeared, but compared to OTL the eastern front is a far more close run thing. In the west, France awkwardly batters itself against the Rhineland and Alsace.
In 1918, the French push through to the Rhine. Despite initial setbacks in Poland, Russia is pushing into East Prussia. Faced with the threat of the Czar becoming the master of Europe, the British cabinet issues an ultimatum to the Entente to come to a Conference of London. A week later, the UK joins the Central Powers. It looks for the chance to open new fronts in Russia that don't involve fighting in the highest reaches of Central Asia. One consequence of this is a determined push by London and Berlin to get the Ottoman Empire to join the Central Powers.
The second is that in 1919 the Qing send units to close the Trans-Siberian railroad. Though the Qing-Russian fighting reveals the astounding weakness of both supposedly modernised armies, it also leads to one of the bleakest and most brutal fronts in the history of warfare as large, under equipped forces struggle across a vast and ungoverned terrain.
The tide is turning against the Entente- Russia is now trying to supply fronts on the Baltic, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Central Asia and the Transbaikal. Reluctantly, it agrees to cede all interests in the Korean Peninsular and southern Manchuria in exchange for Japanese (and, nominally, Korean) entry into the war.

As 1920 begins, the alliances are-
The Entente of Russia, Japan, France, Romania, Italy and Korea against the Central Powers of the UK, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans, Bulgaria and China.

How it plays out after that... I don't know. Just a few fun thoughts, not a serious attempt at plausibility. There is more handwaving involved than the Queen acknowledging a hundred parades.
As always in the Great War, much comes down to where the Americans jump.
 
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Welcome to the site!

Certainly, if Yuan backed the Qing in 1911 it makes setting up his dynasty much easier.

But as I said before, there's still a fundamental problem with a POD that late- it doesn't give any reason for China to back the Central Powers. Yuan and his successors didn't try to historically. Why would they now?

If you want greater Asian involvement in WWI, don't look to China- look to the subcontinent. An Indian rising is difficult to engineer, but much more possible than a China that enters the Central Powers. Furthermore, there actually were German efforts at engineering one.

Also, far more than China- a front in India actually has the potential to massively divert British resources, whereas a Chinese front simply wouldn't threaten the Entente. The Russians and Japanese both outmatched the Beiyang Army individually, even during the war. Together, they'd smash it.
Plus, if Yuan was foolish enough to join the Central Powers it would almost certainly lead to a full civil war as the KMT and anyone else who put their hands up got given Japanese and British arms.

I'm not annoyed- as I said, it's a fascinating period for China. But there's nothing wrong with accepting that the original framing of the question may not be helpful. As I said before, if you want the Qing to join the Central Powers and be strong enough to make a difference, you really need a POD in the nineteenth century.

As a very rough handwave- a more successful self-strengthening movement leads to a narrow victory in 1895. Korea still probably leaves the Qing sphere, but the stalemate is seen as the teething pains of a modernising power rather than the revelation that China was a paper tiger.
Consequently, those Britons who believed that China is their natural ally in the region win out. There is no Anglo-Japanese alliance in 1902. The British continue to maintain economic influence, but Japan worries more and more about being strategic isolation. With no great power backers, it backs down over the growth of Russian influence and never goes to war with the Czar.
The Qing continue to reform. Corruption remains rampant, but infrastructure is slowly developing. The end of the eight-legged examinations sees the co-option of more and more youthful talent into the bureaucracy- young men who would join the KMT in our timeline become the basis of a generation of modern mandarins. There is more and more tension, however, between the Manchu court and the powerful Han leaders of the civil service and military. Li Hongzhang is an unofficial regent for the first part of the twentieth century, but after he dies it becomes more and more clear that his protege Yuan Shikai wants to exercise power in name as well as practice.
For Korea's part, the next twenty years seem to go well. The newly-minted Empire remains in terror of annexation by one of its three most powerful neighbors, but cautious steps towards building a modern state continue. Korea slowly drifts towards Japan- its reformers caught between fear of becoming a colony and the knowledge that China and Russia are more likely to simply annex them.

Meanwhile, in Europe- because there is no humiliation of 1905, Russia is perceived as far stronger and more dangerous than it is. Germany behaves more cautiously, France more boldly. Franz Ferdinand has an uneventful trip to Sarejevo in 1914.
By 1917, Russia seems poised to overtake the Kaiserreich. It has had a decade of social upheavals, but nothing apparently crippling. There is probably a paper Duma. Britain is worried enough about clashes with Russia in the Straits, Central Asia and the Far East that it backs away from its understandings with the Entente.
Germany has come to believe that if it is to defeat the Entente it must move now. When a crisis breaks out- perhaps a Russian agitator named Trotsky throws a bomb at the funeral of Franz Joseph in Vienna- Berlin makes its move.
Within months, it's war. Germany and Austria-Hungary against Russia and France. Russia seems not to be quite as fearsome as it initially appeared, but compared to OTL the eastern front is a far more close run thing. In the west, France awkwardly batters itself against the Rhineland and Alsace.
In 1918, the French push through to the Rhine. Despite initial setbacks in Poland, Russia is pushing into East Prussia. Faced with the threat of the Czar becoming the master of Europe, the British cabinet issues an ultimatum to the Entente to come to a Conference of London. A week later, the UK joins the Central Powers. It looks for the chance to open new fronts in Russia that don't involve fighting in the highest reaches of Central Asia. One consequence of this is a determined push by London and Berlin to get the Ottoman Empire to join the Central Powers.
The second is that in 1919 the Qing send units to close the Trans-Siberian railroad. Though the Qing-Russian fighting reveals the astounding weakness of both supposedly modernised armies, it also leads to one of the bleakest and most brutal fronts in the history of warfare as large, under equipped forces struggle across a vast and ungoverned terrain.
The tide is turning against the Entente- Russia is now trying to supply fronts on the Baltic, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Central Asia and the Transbaikal. Reluctantly, it agrees to cede all interests in the Korean Peninsular and southern Manchuria in exchange for Japanese (and, nominally, Korean) entry into the war.

As 1920 begins, the alliances are-
The Entente of Russia, Japan, France, Romania, Italy and Korea against the Central Powers of the UK, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans, Bulgaria and China.

How it plays out after that... I don't know. Just a few fun thoughts, not a serious attempt at plausibility. There is more handwaving involved than the Queen acknowledging a hundred parades.
As always in the Great War, much comes down to where the Americans jump.
I like the timeline you have made. However, the changes made it to it are far more than I envisioned when making this TL. Britain as a Central Power just changes everything... Anyways, you say that an Indian rebellion is more likely than a Central Powers Qing. I don't recall the Germans trying to stir up an Indian rebellion, I remember them trying to get the Afghan tribes to go against the British. Nevertheless, even if the German tried and were successful, the British would simply crush the rebellion. A major rebellion in the British Raj would have a very, very difficult time getting at least decent weapons to fight the British with. Even if the Germans funded the rebels, how would the Germans transport the weapons to the rebels in the Raj? Even if some weapons got into the Raj, I don't think it would be enough to divert so many British resources. The British absolutely dominated the Indian subcontinent in their colonial rule in the early 20th century, so I don't see how the rebel movement would ever get enough momentum to open up a new front. That's something I see as far more unlikely than a Central Powers Qing, to be honest. In OTL, the Republic of China joined WWI on the side of the Entente because the Republic of China had so many internal problems at that time that it didn't need another war. Sectionalism and local warlords were very prominent in the ROC, so they didn't pursue getting revenge on Japan because the local warlords caused too much sectionalism for China to even stand a chance. The divisions in the ROC and the numerous warlords were the reason why the ROC never even considered joining the Central Powers IOTL. In this timeline, however, the Qing Dynasty survives with Yuan as the Defacto ruler. The Qing has absolutely tons of internal problems just as the ROC did IOTL, but it doesn't suffer through the large amount of sectionalism and local warlords present in the ROC. China, for the most part, remains quite centralized. With the Qing having power over all of the Chinese military, being void of the warlords which plagued the ROC IOTL, the Qing would see the Japanese taking of Tsingtao as an encroachment near Chinese territory. This, combined with their hatred of Japan over losing Korea over the First Sino-Japanese War, and their hatred for Britain for the Opium wars, would lead Yuan and the Qing Dynasty to declare war on Japan, thus becoming a Central Power. As for you saying "if you want the Qing to join the Central Powers and be strong enough to make a difference, you really need a POD in the nineteenth century." This I see as flawed reasoning because the thought that China needs an absolutely dominating military to make a difference in the war isn't true. Heck, just look at the Central Powers IOTL. Germany had an overwhelmingly dominating military, but the other Central Powers (Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria) all had relatively weak militaries.
Perhaps you're still thinking China wouldn't have any motivation to join the Central Powers. I can see where you're coming from, as logically, China would be better off either joining the Entente or staying neutral. However, we must remember to look at this from the perspective of the Chinese leadership at the time, not in hindsight. The closest comparison to Chinese motivations to join the First World War would be the Ottoman Empire's motivations. The Ottoman Empire was a struggling empire, and its power had greatly diminished over the past couple of centuries (like China). The Ottoman Empire joined World War I on the side of the Central Powers because their leader, Enver Pasha, desired a greater Ottoman Empire, encompassing many of its former lands, and having its old power. This of course, was almost impossible. That didn't stop Pasha from using Germany to enter the Ottoman Empire into World War I. It would have been a much better decision for the Ottoman Empire to stay neutral or to join the Entente. Why didn't they? Simple: Joining the Entente or staying neutral would never allow them to try and regain their former glory in the War. This would be the same mindset that Qing China would have while entering the war. Because China isn't rife with internal warlords and doesn't become so divided, Yuan Shikai thinks about Qing defeats at the hand of Japan and Britain. He thinks about how Japan has just taken Tsingtao, which gives Japan yet even more land bordering China. Yuan knows that the Chinese military has just been greatly modernized since its defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War. He knows that if he joins the Entente he won't get any new territory. He thinks that if he stays neutral, he would be passing up on an opportunity to retake lands once owned by China and regain old glory. The lack of fervent sectionalism in China allows Yuan to not have to focus on domestic issues every minute. Yuan weighs his options:
1. Join the Entente: Don't gain any new territory, China will have to get involved in a conflict that they wouldn't want to get involved in if they couldn't get territory or more power. Yuan knows that his country will be safe from foreign invasion in World War I, and will likely get some more very minor European support later on in the Qing dynasty, but in his eyes, this option doesn't have anything to gain for China other than very minor benefits, such as a place at the bargaining table, which could be overlooked.
Yuan won't join the Entente as he will be pulled into a conflict he won't want to get involved in without potential territorial gain or major power gain. This option is out.
2. Stay Neutral: Don't gain any new territory, China will pass up on an opportunity to gain some more lands and to retake former glory. China's potential chance to become a world power again would be gone. This is the most safe option, as China will just keep minding its own business as the war goes on. China won't be pulled into the Conflict, but China is missing an opportunity to retake former glory and gain old territory back.
Staying Neutral allows China to focus inwards on domestic issues without being pulled into the global conflict. However, Yuan knows that if he does this, he may be missing China's only opportunity to regain old territory back and become a world power again. With the internal problems being immeasurably less than IOTL, China not getting involved in the conflict appears to Yuan as passing up a once in a lifetime opportunity.
3. Join the Central Powers: China will have the opportunity to retake old territory. China will have the opportunity to show the world their new and improved military might. China has the potential to become a world power quickly again through quick conquests of valuable land.
Yuan knows that the Chinese military has been modernized for the most part. Yuan knows that he will remain in power for the rest of his life if this succeeds. Yuan knows that this has the potential to make China more powerful than it has ever been in the past century. China has the potential to regain former glory if they join the Central Powers.

Yuan weighs his options, and decides that joining the Central Powers is too good of an opportunity to pass up. The lack of internal strife in this TL allows Yuan to not have to focus so much on domestic issues. In the end, the potential is just too tempting. Qing China joins the Central Powers to try and regain old glory, similar to the Ottoman Empire IOTL.
 
I really don't see what the Qing would have to gain from joining World War 1. Wouldn't they be perfectly content in seeing the European powers destroying eachother rather than picking on them? Not to mention that they were almost entirely self-sufficent and didn't really have any territorial ambitions other than maybe retaking Korea and Outer Manchuria...which to me seems unlikely as I don't think the Qing would stand a realistic chance in fighting Japan or the Russian Empire.
 
I really don't see what the Qing would have to gain from joining World War 1. Wouldn't they be perfectly content in seeing the European powers destroying eachother rather than picking on them? Not to mention that they were almost entirely self-sufficent and didn't really have any territorial ambitions other than maybe retaking Korea and Outer Manchuria...which to me seems unlikely as I don't think the Qing would stand a realistic chance in fighting Japan or the Russian Empire.
Perhaps they speak with the Americans on the down low (who apparently had decent enough relationships with them due to bringing Appalachian ginseng to sell to them, so they actually had something to offer.) and get some Trans-Pacific agreement about closing down areas of exclusive economic rights, or setting up Chinese run ports to deal with exports. Maybe also get some good relations with the Thai, as well as the Filipino Commonwelath when it comes about. Perhaps expand influence among the Chinese of Southeast Asia, though it would cause a backlash, including among the Americans.
 
Perhaps they speak with the Americans on the down low (who apparently had decent enough relationships with them due to bringing Appalachian ginseng to sell to them, so they actually had something to offer.) and get some Trans-Pacific agreement about closing down areas of exclusive economic rights, or setting up Chinese run ports to deal with exports. Maybe also get some good relations with the Thai, as well as the Filipino Commonwelath when it comes about. Perhaps expand influence among the Chinese of Southeast Asia, though it would cause a backlash, including among the Americans.
That seems like alot of work for them to do in a mere 4 years, unless the Qing not collapsing butterflies alot of other unrelated events beofre the dawn of the 20th Century. Also if the war happens like it did in our timeline, fighting Japan and Russia would mean they would have to fight the Entente, which I don't think the Americans would appreciate (unless they join the Central Powers). Not to mention, fighting the Entente would make them completely surrounded, being attacked by Japan, French IndoChina, the British Raj and the Russian Empire.
 
That seems like alot of work for them to do in a mere 4 years, unless the Qing not collapsing butterflies alot of other unrelated events beofre the dawn of the 20th Century. Also if the war happens like it did in our timeline, fighting Japan and Russia would mean they would have to fight the Entente, which I don't think the Americans would appreciate (unless they join the Central Powers). Not to mention, fighting the Entente would make them completely surrounded, being attacked by Japan, French IndoChina, the British Raj and the Russian Empire.
Ahhh, no no. I wasn't thinking of them joining, but that they be, like some others said, modernizing and using the opportunity to regain their markets and to try to steal influence from their neighbors, not that there are many opportunities, since Japan and Thailand are the only really independent states within close reach of them. I probably should have specified that, given the point of the thread was for. The Americans might play along to go with the Open Door Policy, but they would react harshly to a modernizing China that tries making connections with the Chinese outside of Asia.
 
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