WI: The Qing accept the independence of Zheng family's maritime empire

Tungning will really need to drop the whole "true Han nation" rhetoric for China to not invade. If they're claiming that they're culturally the "real" China that's going to ruffle lots of feathers. If Qing China gets its stuff together or has a revolution and new China gets its stuff together it's a quick and easy invasion and annexation of "true Chinese people."
Unless its independence gets guaranteed by a larger power like a certain other "true China" based out of Taiwan...
 
It's likely they just get ignored and get laughed at if they insist they are the one true Chinese state if the Han rose up and established a new state.Tungning's claims were only taken seriously because the Manchus were foreigners running an apartheid regime.

Getting Tungning to drop its' claims is unlikely,so for Tungning to survive,it's essential that they get the Philippines.

Unless mainland China is concerned about legitimacy or foreign intervention. Best to knock out the competition. I agree that the Philippines will help the state's longevity.

Unless its independence gets guaranteed by a larger power like a certain other "true China" based out of Taiwan...

But who would want to? Britain? If Qing or "revolutionary" China really modernized and built up a huge navy it might be hard for them to keep up halfway around the world.
 
I think the Spanish used the Koxinga scare in order for the Spanish to censor history, it was not Koxinga who was a threat to the Spanish, there were many inside threats in the Philippines in the late 17th century which includes rebels in Northern Luzon, Northern Sulawesi and Sultan Dipatuan Kudarat..but having these succeed will give Koxinga or ZhengJing a suitable place in the areas loyal to the Spanish.

I think Tungning is possible to survive if it is guaranteed independence..by a foreign power like Portuguese.
 
I think the Spanish used the Koxinga scare in order for the Spanish to censor history, it was not Koxinga who was a threat to the Spanish, there were many inside threats in the Philippines in the late 17th century which includes rebels in Northern Luzon, Northern Sulawesi and Sultan Dipatuan Kudarat..but having these succeed will give Koxinga or ZhengJing a suitable place in the areas loyal to the Spanish.

I think Tungning is possible to survive if it is guaranteed independence..by a foreign power like Portuguese.
That's basically impossible.Portugal's pretty screwed if it antagonises the Manchus--it will lose Macau and the Chinese trade.Furthermore,Portugal's quite weak.
 

Japhy

Banned
Honestly the idea of any power guaranteeing Independence of the Zheng’s is a mistake, thus isn't 19th or 20th Century European politics. A guarantee would mean nothing to anyone in the Qing Court, the Zheng Empire or anywhere else.

What would be useful are short term alliances of convenience and an open trading exchange that would allow a technical edge over the Qing. And literally anyone who shows up isn't going to have a problem with trading arms for goods.
 
Honestly the idea of any power guaranteeing Independence of the Zheng’s is a mistake, thus isn't 19th or 20th Century European politics. A guarantee would mean nothing to anyone in the Qing Court, the Zheng Empire or anywhere else.

What would be useful are short term alliances of convenience and an open trading exchange that would allow a technical edge over the Qing. And literally anyone who shows up isn't going to have a problem with trading arms for goods.
I think only Tokugawa Japan's the only one with any weight in the region to dissuade the Manchus from attacking,problem is that Tokugawa Japan has no interest in this conflict and is largely reclusive.
 
I think Tungning can be paralyzed and can survive as not a threat to the chinese if someone else props Middag and the Taiwanese tribes..like the Portuguese..
 

Japhy

Banned
I think only Tokugawa Japan's the only one with any weight in the region to dissuade the Manchus from attacking,problem is that Tokugawa Japan has no interest in this conflict and is largely reclusive.

Obviously Tokugawa is useless for that. What's your point?
 
Obviously Tokugawa is useless for that. What's your point?
My point is that if somehow Tokugawa Japan is less reclusive and is friendly to Tungning(not that surprising considering the founder of Tungning was half-Japanese and that the Zhengs had heavy links with Japan),then Tungning's prospects for survival might increase dramaticly.
 
My mistake then.But without being able to tap into the vast Chinese market,it still raises a lot of problems regarding the survival of such a state--given it's heavily reliant on trade.

I should emphasize that I think the state will survive, at least for the first 50+ years, only if it reaches a status with China as an outer kingdom that pays nominal tribute to the Qing, like the Koreans. By the 1760s, if it's settled Taiwan and Luzon, if it's using "English learning" to build a small but capable fleet... well it will also be less Chinese, because I expect some continued conversions to Christianity. (The Zheng family played with it as well). But it will be dependent on the Chinese market (and the Japanese to an extent)

Obviously Tokugawa is useless for that. What's your point?

I generally agree, but it's worth noting that the Tokugawa did provide limited aid to Zheng and the Southern Ming OTL. There is actually a Japanese play, the "Battles of Coxinga," that are about him which involve him leading Japanese troops to restore the Ming Dynasty. Don't ask.

A lot of other places produces sugar as well.The Dutch,English,French and Portuguese have plenty of sugar producing colonies in the New World.So, it's not as expensive as a commodity as stuff like China,tea and silk(although Taiwan produces tea as well).It's unlikely that the new state would try to conquer Tungning,unless it's another conquest state.Traditionally,Taiwan was not a part of China.It's much more likely that in the event of a Qing collapse,Taiwan leads the charge against the Qing.

Taiwan was basically China's sugar island under the Qing, actually.

I'd be interested in this too. Hm; what if at some point they convert to Islam or Christianity (Reformed?) at some point?

Why Islam?

Unless mainland China is concerned about legitimacy or foreign intervention. Best to knock out the competition. I agree that the Philippines will help the state's longevity.

But who would want to? Britain? If Qing or "revolutionary" China really modernized and built up a huge navy it might be hard for them to keep up halfway around the world.

A timeline that results in a "modernizing" Qing state in the late 18th century is still worth exploring, IMO! If I do this timeline, the thrust would be as much about Taiwan as a "Middle Ground" for the east and west as it would be about The Zheng family.
 
I should emphasize that I think the state will survive, at least for the first 50+ years, only if it reaches a status with China as an outer kingdom that pays nominal tribute to the Qing, like the Koreans. By the 1760s, if it's settled Taiwan and Luzon, if it's using "English learning" to build a small but capable fleet... well it will also be less Chinese, because I expect some continued conversions to Christianity. (The Zheng family played with it as well). But it will be dependent on the Chinese market (and the Japanese to an extent)

I think if Tungning needs to Transfer to Manila they need to abandon Taiwan completely, they will be surrounded by the Rebel states(the Maniago-Malong-Almazan rebel state and other rebel states) which it would temporarily ally then later will be hostile with until they make friends with them, I think a Tungning on Manila can be a singapore surrounded by Malay states like in Malaysia..the natives of the Philippines are similar to the Borneans/Malays.Celebes rather than the formosans.

Once the Spanish are expelled by the rebels the Philippines simply disintegrates...during the time the spanish were selling the Philippines to America, the Philippines is disintegrating.
 
Last edited:
A timeline that results in a "modernizing" Qing state in the late 18th century is still worth exploring, IMO! If I do this timeline, the thrust would be as much about Taiwan as a "Middle Ground" for the east and west as it would be about The Zheng family.

I would be really interested in reading this TL! The whole world would go in really interesting ways and I would personally love to see a revitalized Chinese Empire! Have them become a viable competitor against the Europeans earlier on and deserve the title of Celestial Empire again :cool:
 
I think where the Tungning can relocate in the Philippines is the Manila area and Visayas where the loyalists to the Spanish live at that time.
 
As is fairly well-known, the Zheng family, a dynasty of armed merchants based in southeastern China, conquered the Dutch colony of Taiwan in 1662 and created an extremely centralized kingdom (the so-called Kingdom of Dongning/Tungning). They also planned to conquer the Spanish Philippines on two separate occasions, and every European observer actually believed that the Zheng could have easily conquered the colony in either case if random circumstances hadn't made them abandon the campaign (in 1663, it was the sudden death of the merchant king Koxinga; in 1674, it was the Three Feudatories' revolt which convinced the Zheng family that they could invade China again instead of fighting the Spaniards). What is less known is that the Zheng helped the king of Cambodia kick out Europeans from his court and allied with Muslims such as the Indonesian sultan of Banten, even transporting Muslim merchants from India all the way to Japan.

The Zheng family was finally destroyed in 1683 by the Qing empire, which thereafter showed no interest whatsoever in expansion overseas. But this didn't have to happen. In 1677, as the War of the Three Feudatories raged on, the Qing government actually offered the Zheng family total independence under the condition that they retreat entirely to Taiwan and leave the entire Chinese mainland for the Qing:

How can two tiny islands match the vastness of the Four Seas? How can a crowd of rabble compete with the majesty of ironclad cavalry? How can salt and fish of the sea compare to tribute from fields across China?
[...]
[So] why do you not lay down your weapons and rest your men, bring all your carriages and armor to protect Taiwan, and count yourself among the overseas guest ministers [i.e. tributary kingdoms of China]? As for receiving ranks and titles, it is only at your wish. If you do not wish to do so, you do not have to receive them [i.e. the Zheng do not have to be Qing vassals if they do not wish]. How can our Dynasty regret granting a remote and impoverished corner of the seas for your rulers and ministers to preserve their names and rituals?​

The Zheng refused and the Qing conquest came six years later.

What if things had gone differently?

This is enlightening! I never knew about this. Subbed to this thread.

It's likely they just get ignored and get laughed at if they insist they are the one true Chinese state if the Han rose up and established a new state.Tungning's claims were only taken seriously because the Manchus were foreigners running an apartheid regime.

Getting Tungning to drop its' claims is unlikely,so for Tungning to survive,it's essential that they get the Philippines.

I think that if they were to get the Philippines and control it (or either have hegemony over it) we would also see a heavier Sinicization of the Islands.

--

Also lastly I think that if the Tungning were to be able to have a hegemony and/or control over SEA and keep European influence limited, then their is options to expand into Australia and Oceania (perhaps even reach the New World?) or maybe into the Indian Ocean.
 
What impact would the Taiping Rebellion have had on Tungning, assuming those seeking to escape the conflict find refuge in Taiwan?

Seems way post-POD and out of scope. Tungning survival (do they get a dynasty name?) would butterfly Qing development and how relations with the West happen.

Wondering if the Zheng heirs could end up with suzerainty over the Ryukyus.
 
For me Koxinga or Zheng's total conquest of Luzon is ASB due to me knowing history of Luzon - what is plausible is Koxinga or Zheng allying with the rebels and help them evict the Spanish colonists and be awarded of land because I know some of history of the Philippines and I know some non-mainistream historians who are revising history, there is less known data about the history of the Philippines due to the Spanish censoring history..so I am fine with anyone take of it but I will just laugh about it.

I have my own take about Koxinga and Zheng , they would be covered in the revival of my TL Permanent Not Temporary.
 
Last edited:
Top