WI the Pope flees Rome in 1870 ??

General Zod

Banned
While thinking out my TL, I had an idea, what if Pope Pius IX chooses to flee Rome in 1870 when the Italians liberate it, instead of rooting himself in the Vatican ?

I was thinking this out of my Grossdeutchsland idea, so the basic scenario is this, Grossdeutchsland and Italy are allied against France in 1870, and Hungary is their friend, so when Latium is invaded, and France looks like about to fold, he despairs of getting quick help, he chooses dramatic actions over passive resistance, he flees Rome like he did in 1848, and as like his Middle Age predecessors did when Rome did become unsafe. He jumps a French ship in Civitavecchia, and flees to some friendly Catholic nation, all the way raining down excommunications and interdicts over the German, Italian governments and peoples, and calling for a new crusade.

Now, when he would go ? France was up to then his big protector, but if Rome has fallen, France has already essentially lost the war, even if she won't concede it for another half-year, and Nappy III has already fallen. The Third Republic keeps resisting, but it has serious internal divisions between revolutionary left-wing Republicans and conservative right-wing Republicans (which will explode in the Commune). Would it welcome the Pope (someplace in Southwestern France, most likely; Marseilles isn't safe with the Italians nearby) ? Would his presence strengthen the conservative element and stiff their backs against France's enemies, or just be a further element of division ? Would the Pope openly embrace France's side and throw the Church in the clashes of European great powers, much as they did in the Middle Ages ?

Would he go elsewhere, and if so, where ? Spain would be naother good candidate, theoretically, but it is currently into political chaos, without a king. Would She welcome the Pope ? Would his presence trigger a civil war or throw the advantage in the field of the conservatives ? Would a catholic-controlled Spain rush to the defense of France ? Could this blossom in a France-Spain vs. Germany-Italy, conservatives vs. liberals "new crusade" big european brawl ? Hungary is in Germany's pocket, albeit a catholic power, so she probably drags her feet and avoids to pick sides. What would Britain do ? They have no sympathy for Pius IX and his policies, but they are committed to neutrality. Russia would probably sit it out, amused, unless Britain intervenes.

This could accelerate the friendship between the Triple Alliance and Britain, and divide Europe between the UK-DE-IT "liberal" alliance, and the FR-SP-RU "conservative" entente.

I assume that Germany and Italy are fully capable to quell whatever catholic unrest, since they did so in the face of Papal hostility OTL. However, these events will paint Catholic activism as open treason. The Church has recently underwent a little schism, as the Old catholics confession separated in opposition to the doctrine of papal infallibility. Could these actions fan the Old Catholics, with massive support from Germany and Italy, to blossom in some kind of new Anglican Reformation which wrestles South Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy from obedience to the Pope ? Can we see some kind of new Great Schism ? A new Antipope ?

Would the Pope flee elsewhere, and if so, where ? Portugal ?

What the long-term consequences are, of the Pope's flight, about the international position of the Church. Pius IX was seen as the enemy of liberty and progress everywhere, but his passive resistance in the Vatican brought him some sympathy. Here, he chooses an more dramatic protest, albeit one that shows the Church is willing to pick an blatantly active role in politics once more, something that will not win sympathy from many governments and educated middle classes.

Also, we can safely assume that France, or whatever catholic conservative coalition the Pope may help assemble, will fold against the Berlin-Rome Alliance. But what this spell for the Church and the Papacy ? Will the next Popes seek conciliation or ever be able to return to Rome ?

Will we have a new "Avignonese (French, Spanish, Portoguese) captivity" ?
 
I assume that Germany and Italy are fully capable to quell whatever catholic unrest, since they did so in the face of Papal hostility OTL. However, these events will paint Catholic activism as open treason. The Church has recently underwent a little schism, as the Old catholics confession separated in opposition to the doctrine of papal infallibility. Could these actions fan the Old Catholics, with massive support from Germany and Italy, to blossom in some kind of new Anglican Reformation which wrestles South Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy from obedience to the Pope ? Can we see some kind of new Great Schism ? A new Antipope ?
I doubt highly that you'd likely get a 'new Anglican' situation. I think you'd more likely get several 'national catholic' churches, but they are, I think, likely to stay 'catholic' in theology rather longer than Henry's church, which in one generation became a wierd protestant church more than a wierd catholic one.

I suppose you could see an anti-pope. If enough cardinals are under the sway of the DE-IT alliance, you might try to have them depose the existing pope and elect another - but that would be ... difficult. THere is no precedent for such an action IIRC. THe advantage such an antipope would have is that he'd be in possession of ROme, which, historically, was a major advantage for the 'pope' who held it.

One nasty monkey wrench to throw into the works - what if Britain offers sanctuary in Ireland for the Pope? :) (Of course, they'd have to start treating their Irish catholics better, but there you are.)

This would probably also put paid to the doctrine papal infallibility - squabbling popes posting broadsides and quarreling with every denunciation reported around the world in newspapers would lay all too open the human fallibility of the man (men) holding the office.
 
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