WI The Polish Underground Army ended the 1944 uprising successfully?

This I wondered while I was listening to the Kick Ass Sabaton song Uprising.

What if the Polish Underground Army eventually ended up 'winning' the uprising in Warsaw, 1944? What if they eventually succeeded booting out the German soldiers in Warsaw?

Give me feedback and your opinions here.
 
As others have said the Soviets roll in and take over. The only way you'd ever get a free Poland would be if the Allies somehow manage to get there first and in numbers, which is a massive challenge. Best way I could ever see that happening would be a successful D-Day in 1943, things going roughly the same speed as our timeline whilst the Germans are able to hang on longer in the east - D-Day causes them to postpone Operation Citadel perhaps. For that to happen though you'd need changes that would make things monumentally different from our timeline, and even then it would still be a dicey proposition.
 
As others have said the Soviets roll in and take over. The only way you'd ever get a free Poland would be if the Allies somehow manage to get there first and in numbers, which is a massive challenge. Best way I could ever see that happening would be a successful D-Day in 1943, things going roughly the same speed as our timeline whilst the Germans are able to hang on longer in the east - D-Day causes them to postpone Operation Citadel perhaps. For that to happen though you'd need changes that would make things monumentally different from our timeline, and even then it would still be a dicey proposition.

Would this lead to an earlier/different Cold War? Squashing newly-successful Polish freedom fighters is real bad news, no? Especially if handled with the usual Soviet deftness.
 
Would this lead to an earlier/different Cold War? Squashing newly-successful Polish freedom fighters is real bad news, no? Especially if handled with the usual Soviet deftness.

This had already happened in eastern Poland, and nobody cared. (Nobody important enough to start a cold war, at least).
 
Would this lead to an earlier/different Cold War? Squashing newly-successful Polish freedom fighters is real bad news, no? Especially if handled with the usual Soviet deftness.
Doubt it, the Soviets squashed pretty much every independent group in eastern and central Europe except for Yugoslavia and people just accepted it.
 
Would this lead to an earlier/different Cold War? Squashing newly-successful Polish freedom fighters is real bad news, no? Especially if handled with the usual Soviet deftness.

Not like that stopped the Soviets in Prague. The only change this could have is a cultural one--the post-Communist Polish Republic lionizing the heroes of Warsaw more, maybe the city coming through more intact than it was IOTL (no other way it can be a Home Army victory--they just can't win a prolonged fight without the Soviets driving the Germans and their heavy artillery and equipment away from the city), etc. Matter of fact, this could lead to a situation where the London Poles triumphantly return to Warsaw, only to get arrested and shot/worked to death a few years later.
 
This I wondered while I was listening to the Kick Ass Sabaton song Uprising.

What if the Polish Underground Army eventually ended up 'winning' the uprising in Warsaw, 1944? What if they eventually succeeded booting out the German soldiers in Warsaw?

Give me feedback and your opinions here.

Are you talking about the Poles beating the SS who were sent against them? If that happens it would be interesting. Model refused to send his forces against them other then to protect his supply lines to his Army Group. If the Poles ignore Army Group Center and don't try to mess with his supply lines Model will let them be. If they attack Army Group Center then it will be a complete bloodbath for the Poles.

While commanding Army Group Centre, he refused to dispatch troops to put down the Warsaw uprising (a task that ultimately was carried out by the SS), viewing it as a rear-area matter. He stated that the revolt arose from the mistreatment of the Polish population by the Nazis, and the army should have nothing to do with it. On the other hand, he showed no hesitation in clearing the Warsaw suburbs of Praga and Saska Kępa, through which vital supply lines ran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Model
 
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The only chance for the Warsaw Uprising to succeed was the Red Army. Let's say Germans fail to counterattack at Radzymin in late July 1944 and the Soviets really reach Warsaw. The Home Army starts the urprising, manages to capture 1 or 2 bridges and clear the way for the Soviets across the Vistula river. German troops panic and evacuate Warsaw.
What would happen next. The most possible scenario would be the same what happened in Vilnius (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ostra_Brama) or Lvov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lwów_Uprising ) - front troops coopoerate, after successful battle NKVD arrests Home Army leaders and disarms the soldiers. OTOH, here situation would be a little different - Warsaw was the Polish capital after all, and it would have been harder too keep the uprising quiet. However, the Soviets would probably do what they did in Vilnius and then claim that people of Warsaw indeed fought against the Germans and helped the Red Army, but did it under the leadership of Polish communists, while the Home Army mostly stood and watched. However, disarming a much bigger number of Polish insurgents would have lasted longer.
The reaction of western allies wopuld be, IMHO, similar to OTL. They needed the Soviets more than they needed the Poles.
The most optimistic (while unrealistic) scenario would be that Poles manage to get Polish Prime Minister from London to Warsaw and proclaim that Polish legitimate government is back in Polish capital. The allies grudgingly put some pressure on Stalin and eventually the The Provisional Government of National Unity is established with politicians from London and Polish communists (as it happened in 1945 IOTL). The communist position would be rather strong, since they did have an army (Berling's Army) and full support of USSR. Non-communist faction, OTOH, would have hundreds of thousands of Home Army soldiers, brave, but usually poorly armed (no tanks, no artillery, no air force). The Home Army would try to organize regular units, but the Soviets/ Polish communists would obtruct it in every possible way, promoting pro-Sovier Berling's Army. Eventually, Home Army would be more or less neutralized, its commanders arrested under trumped charges or murdered, and soldiers forced to join the Berling's Army.
 
This I wondered while I was listening to the Kick Ass Sabaton song Uprising.

What if the Polish Underground Army eventually ended up 'winning' the uprising in Warsaw, 1944? What if they eventually succeeded booting out the German soldiers in Warsaw?

Give me feedback and your opinions here.

My uncle never marries my aunt ;)

It would depend on how the Germans lost. If there was a significant acquisition of weapons and materiel by the Home Army then it would be difficult for the Russians to squash the Polish forces completely. More likely the Home Army would be starved of resources and given the choice of joining the pro-Soviet divisions or disappearing.

If the Germans just left and the Home Army only had the weapons it started the uprising with then they would be disarmed and interned by the Russians
 
Doubt it, the Soviets squashed pretty much every independent group in eastern and central Europe except for Yugoslavia and people just accepted it.

Yugoslavia being the other area where the resistance more or less succeeded on its own, as we are positing the Home Army does in TTL.

As OTL shows, the West's capacity to turn a blind eye to Soviet tyranny is not infinite, and I think squashing a successful(!) Polish liberation army is a bridge too far.
 
Yugoslavia being the other area where the resistance more or less succeeded on its own, as we are positing the Home Army does in TTL.

As OTL shows, the West's capacity to turn a blind eye to Soviet tyranny is not infinite, and I think squashing a successful(!) Polish liberation army is a bridge too far.

There's a difference. The Yugoslavian resistance took pretty much the entire country, and the few Soviet troops to enter Yugoslavia distinguished themselves by raping and murdering the local population. Furthermore, Yugoslavia was pretty much on the edge of the Reich's territory and the Soviets' planned sphere of influence. Tito could take the entire country without much attention from the Soviets--its loss didn't seriously compromise the Soviet buffer zone.

Poland, sharing a long border with the Soviets and lying along the route to Berlin, cannot be tolerated as an independent government. Soviet foreign policy demands utter domination of Poland. The West might not turn a blind eye, but what will they do? Declare war on the Soviets over Poland? The Soviets only have to tolerate the London Poles for a few months before the war is effectively over and cooperation with the West is unnecessary.
 
You'd need a successful Valkyrie...

...The German Resistance might agree to support the Poles in return for blocking Stalin. Polish and Ukrainian soldiers defending their home patch with German Army equipment...
 
There's a difference. The Yugoslavian resistance took pretty much the entire country, and the few Soviet troops to enter Yugoslavia distinguished themselves by raping and murdering the local population. Furthermore, Yugoslavia was pretty much on the edge of the Reich's territory and the Soviets' planned sphere of influence. Tito could take the entire country without much attention from the Soviets--its loss didn't seriously compromise the Soviet buffer zone.

Poland, sharing a long border with the Soviets and lying along the route to Berlin, cannot be tolerated as an independent government. Soviet foreign policy demands utter domination of Poland. The West might not turn a blind eye, but what will they do? Declare war on the Soviets over Poland? The Soviets only have to tolerate the London Poles for a few months before the war is effectively over and cooperation with the West is unnecessary.

Which is why I asked about the effects, if any, of an earlier Cold War.
 
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