WI: the Polish-Lithuanian union fails in 1385

What would have been the fate of both Poland and Lithuania if the union that started in 1385 would have failed and they did not join forces.

Possible consequences:

- Lithuania does not embrace Catholicism.
- Poland and/or Lithuania falls under influence/domination by either the Russian principalties or the Teutonic Order.
- Hungary tries to dominate Poland again.
 
And why does it fail? Various causes might have various consequences.

Originally posted by Mario
Possible consequences:
- Lithuania does not embrace Catholicism.
- Poland and/or Lithuania falls under influence/domination by either the Russian principalties or the Teutonic Order.
- Hungary tries to dominate Poland again.

Russian duchies at the time were to weak do dominate Lithuania, and Lithuania separated them from Poland. The Teutonic Order, OTOH, could defeat Lithuania and join territories of the Order in Prussia and Livonia. That would make them a real superpower in the region, especially with Lithuania still pagan.
Aboout Hungary dominating Poland - that might be not so easy: Poland had its own king - Hedwig (yes, king, since she was crowned as the king of Poland, to show that she is a sovereign ruler, not just a wife for the future king). Unless Hewig dies and that is the reason of the failure of the Polish-Lithuanian union...
 
Also, Lithuania was under some rather talented leaders during this period.

Both Jogaila and Vitaustas were no slouches when it came to ruling their country.
 
Poland moves into the orbit of the HRE, Lithuania goes Orthodox, and possibly supplants Muscovy as the most important Orthodox polity north of the Dniester. Hungary gets tied up in Balkan/Adriatic poitics, as well as those of the HRE.
 
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