WI the plot against Habib Bourguiba succeeds?

End of year 1962 a plot was against Habib Bourguiba was discovered. The project aimed at a regime change that would lead to a new government in which people considered respectable and from the national liberation movement would sit. The new government would be more democratic and more open to the Arab world.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complot_contre_Habib_Bourguiba

It failed because the various group of plotter were not able to decide what to about Bourguiba. Killing him or put in on trial. Some thinked about abandoning the project and others want to create an opposition movement. One of the non-commissioned officers, Amor Toukabri, denounces the case to the military authorities.


The origin of the plot:
The plot is set against a background of widespread dissatisfaction with Bourguiba and an international context marked by the proliferation of coups d'état, particularly in the Arab countries.
In July 1961, the Bizerte crisis turned to armed confrontation. Inferior in numbers and weapons, poorly prepared and poorly directed, the Tunisian military and resistance fighters suffered a heavy defeat against the French army, with a catastrophic human toll. The battle of Bizerte is considered as an adventure and a useless sacrifice which was only intended to restore the prestige of Bourguiba, since a few months earlier it had concluded with Charles de Gaulle a beginning of diplomatic agreement providing for the evacuation of Bizerte by the French military. The management of the crisis by Bourguiba is considered one of the main factors of discontent against the regime at that time.
On another level, the Yusuf split still divides the country: the arguments of the Yusufists (support for Algerian nationalists, adherence to Nasserist pan-Arabism, rejection of Francophilia and modernism of Bourguiba, etc.) still convince a part of the population. The repression of Salah Ben Youssef's supporters and the assassination of Bourguiba's former right-hand man on 12 August 1961, when public opinion turned their eyes toward Bizerte, aroused unease.
The affair of Bourguiba's palaces, denounced by the Tunisian Communist Party in its newspaper Tribune du progrès, is also an element of discontent. The population misunderstands that Bourguiba is asking him to make efforts while at the same time part of the state budget is devoted to the construction of his homes.
Internationally, we are witnessing the rise of pan-Arabism and Arab nationalism and the proliferation of military coups as a privileged means of gaining power in the Middle East and the Arab countries.
It is in this context that the idea of leading a conspiracy against Bourguiba, relying on the military, begins to germinate. First contacts in military circles and resistance networks to carry out armed action against the president begin in September 1961.




The main plotters were
Habib Hnini, Abdelaziz Akremi, Amor Bembli.

Bourguiba stayed president for 30 years and after him it was Ben Ali.


What if the plot succeeds and those two men were never in charge? Any chance to see a stable and democratic Tunisia?
 
I know nothing of this plot beyond the information on this thread, but, going by the ideology of the plotters, I imagine the result probably wouldn't be a genuine democracy. The Arab nationalists in Egypt in 1952 also took power promising more democracy, only to then start their own regime.
So, I imagine that in this case, the result of this plot being sucessful would be an Arab nationalist, somewhat socialist, regime in Tunis. I suppose the most probable result of this would be a poorer, less westernized Tunisia that, with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of Arab nationalism, would see itself into a civil war like the Algerian one, between the military and Islamists, with the first ones probably winning, thanks to Western support. With a population weary of rocking the boat after this war, there probably would be no Tunisian revolution in 2011 (or any other time till today), and so no Arab Spring as we know it.
 
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