WI the Pig War turns violent?

In 1859, a conflict emerged between the United States and Canada over the San Juan islands near Vancouver and a dead pig:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War

Now, in OTL the 461 American soldiers and the 5 British warships did not fire on each other despite goading (as they had been ordered not to fire the first shot). What if one rogue cannon operator fired, starting a battle that ended with a couple hundred casualties on both sides?
 
By 1859, Anglo-American relations were generally cool but also generally positive; what's more, nether side actually wants to get into conflict. The worst you'd see is perhaps a couple dozen deaths- probably far less- on either side before cooler heads prevailed. Deciding what belonged to whom would probably happen immediately, and the result could be any of the three OTL proposals, but I'd bet on the San Juan Channel compromise unless they go to outside arbitration (as they did in OTL twelve years later).

You might see a bit more provocation by both British and American forces during the Civil War, but I doubt there would be butterflies enough to cause the British to side openly with the CSA- if all the stuff that happened in OTL couldn't do it, a minor kerfuffle several years past is not likely to be the straw that broke the camel's back, as it were. Possible, sure, but not likely.
 
You might see a bit more provocation by both British and American forces during the Civil War, but I doubt there would be butterflies enough to cause the British to side openly with the CSA- if all the stuff that happened in OTL couldn't do it, a minor kerfuffle several years past is not likely to be the straw that broke the camel's back, as it were. Possible, sure, but not likely.

The British Magistrate on San Juan threatened to arrest the US army officer but the US had more guns. The Civil war didn't diffuse the situation at all, George Pickett went off to fight for the south and the British Magistrate went after him and fought for the north.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Probably nothing, but you have a small chance of staring an Anglo-American war. I don't think a couple hundred lost troops with an unclear chain of events is enough to start a major war, but if there were some followup incidents, it might snowball. The problem will be that after losses like this are know, individual commanders are more likely to see the other side as a threat. Even when the action would have been not noticeable in a period of non-tension. So for example, an American/UK ship sailing too near a fort of another nation might turn hot. Simple things like navigation errors, could turn into something larger. Some UK ship that goes 0.5 miles too close to an American fort might be shot at by the local commander. A criminal gang going across the border to rob a bank that is normally seen as a criminal activity might be seen as a wartime raid. It is not likely, but wars have started on small, hard to understand things. After all, the UK went into a major war to defend the rights of Serbian intelligence to assassinate Royalty.
 
If this turned into a larger Anglo-American War, I wonder how this would affect North-South relations within the USA. I assume that, if the war dragged on for too long and, if the British were winning, the southern states might attempt secession as the war would severely harm their economy. It might not even take too long, perhaps just the first year of war as, whether the USA was winning or losing, the fact that the cotton states would lose that vital British trade would cripple them economically.
 
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