In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?
In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?
For WW I though, I think that still fires off. If anything, Serbian national pride is going to be more on edge without the BW victory.
The Italians had invested significant time and money into Libya and the territory had been granted to the Italian Sphere following Frances seizure of Morocco. Austrias annexation of Bosnia was seen by Italy, Austrias ally at the time, as a blow to her prestige. In the Italian leaderships mind Libyan annexation was a matter of national pride.
As a side note, the Otts were doing perfectly well against the Italians in the war OTL until the Balkan League made their move.
And in this scenario Italy will have reason to be even more encouraging to the Balkan players than they were in OTL.
We may see an Italian government holding on like grim death as anti-war voices grow louder, seeking whatever loans they can beg, borrow or steal and doing everything they can to get the Balkan League to come in to distract the Ottomans/make their own war look more credit-worthy.
That's really the issue though. If the Balkan powers are being openly and loudly supported by Italy and it appears the two are aligning, that's going to raise alarm bells in Vienna who (since this is the pre-2nd Baltic War fallout) isent going to be happy about a nation who's been demanding large and strategically vital swaths of her territory (including her only ports of note) allying with the nations that were a knife on her southern front and for whom several years had been constantly agitating, to the point of regiciding the pro-Austrian dynasty and triggering trade wars in Serbia. If anything is going to give Conrad's doomsaying weight, it's this: remember that the Balkan League was origionally crafted as an Anti-Habsburg defensive alliance as well, and Germany at the very least will also be cold to Rome's power grab. We also know Britain is at least friendly to the Ottomans, given their opening of transit through Egypt,so where is Italy going to get her loans or diplomatic support from? Is France and Russia really willing to go to the mat for Libya of all places?
If the Ottomans win the war, they and Russia will draw closer together. The Russians and the Ottomans had a complicated relationship- yes, the Russians wanted the straits but they also were willing to help the Ottomans keep them against a third party. In the Balkan wars, that is Bulgaria that seriously threatened Russian interests At points during the Balkan Wars, the Russians threatened the Bulgarians with war if they pressed closer to Constantinople
The key to whether the Balkan Wars happen is the Ottoman Fleet. If it remains strong enough to deter Greece, then there will be no war. If the Ottomans can't do it themselves, they'll need someone else's fleet. Anyone's will do- Britain seems likely in this scenario, the Austrians or the Russians might do it as well
Would this 'partnership' survive until the First World War?
In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?
The war does not end. Italy saw Libya in primarily two ways. First, it was seen as necessary to prove to europe that it should be counted among the Great Powers and secondly, and more importantly, it saw Libya as its sphere of influence and that dominance was being threatened.
The Italians had invested significant time and money into Libya and the territory had been granted to the Italian Sphere following Frances seizure of Morocco. Austrias annexation of Bosnia was seen by Italy, Austrias ally at the time, as a blow to her prestige. In the Italian leaderships mind Libyan annexation was a matter of national pride.
The Italians had actually been pretty clear on their intentions while the Ottomans refused to consider peace. The Italian navy was superior in every possible way and would likely threaten either Salonika or the straights (which Russia could not allow to be shut down). The Italians would simply bring further resourced to the fight, bombarding Rumelian and Coast cities of Anatolia (maybe seizing more under defended islands) until the Balkan states forced the Ottomans to relent. (There is alot of circumstantial evidence pointing to Italian pressure on Montenegro to voad the Balkan league into action)
So basically nothing much changes and the Ottomans do EVEN WORSE(if thats possible) in the Balkan War with even more forces engaged in the Italian War.
As a side note, the Otts were doing perfectly well against the Italians in the war OTL until the Balkan League made their move. The Otts best option was to try to get Italy to agree to a Cyprus/Egypt type deal before the war even began.
If Britain seems supportive? No Balkan Wars. But the Italo-Turkish War ends with a conference. Considering the Ottomans still had to give up Crete after crushing the Greeks it is possible the Ottomans may give up something in Libya. Or the whole thing. But no Balkan Wars is a net positive.
I doubt they would be obliged to give up Triopolitania. Not with tensions reaching the point they already had and Britian demonstrating a pro-Turkish stance. Especially with Bloody Abdul gone, A-H and Britain would both come down on the Ottoman side with even just minor reform promises, and France won't dare sabotage her recent reconciliation with Britain.