WI: The Ottomans won the Italo-Turkish War

In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?
 
In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?

The mere fact Britain seems to be supportive of Konstantinyye will probably cause the Balkan nations to pause in their efforts, especially when the budgetary strain starts to show on Italy. This will especially be the case if Austria, Italy's nominal ally, looks like she's more invested in Ottoman territorial integrity (considering she too has been glaring at the Balkans). This gives the CUP time to consolidate without slipping into an ultramilitent direction that brought the Three Pashas to total power, likely allowing for a more liberal end result.

For WW I though, I think that still fires off. If anything, Serbian national pride is going to be more on edge without the BW victory. Key though would be the Pact is still in place, so Bulgaria would be leaning towards the Entente to back her Serbian ally. Likely the Ottomans will be less likely to sign onto Germany so quickly though, and Britain and France (seeing them as more viable and needing transit to support Serbia) being more willing to play ball to keep them a benevolant neutral or even join the War. Open Straits are a HUGE advantage to Russia, as 90% of her exports aren't choked off and she can keep turning grain into credit for war material, while no Middle Eastern fronts let's the UK send her Eastern troops elsewhere... perhaps Churchill gets his Adriatic operation a war earlier? Probably goes better than Gallipoli!
 

Germaniac

Donor
The war does not end. Italy saw Libya in primarily two ways. First, it was seen as necessary to prove to europe that it should be counted among the Great Powers and secondly, and more importantly, it saw Libya as its sphere of influence and that dominance was being threatened.

The Italians had invested significant time and money into Libya and the territory had been granted to the Italian Sphere following Frances seizure of Morocco. Austrias annexation of Bosnia was seen by Italy, Austrias ally at the time, as a blow to her prestige. In the Italian leaderships mind Libyan annexation was a matter of national pride.

The Italians had actually been pretty clear on their intentions while the Ottomans refused to consider peace. The Italian navy was superior in every possible way and would likely threaten either Salonika or the straights (which Russia could not allow to be shut down). The Italians would simply bring further resourced to the fight, bombarding Rumelian and Coast cities of Anatolia (maybe seizing more under defended islands) until the Balkan states forced the Ottomans to relent. (There is alot of circumstantial evidence pointing to Italian pressure on Montenegro to voad the Balkan league into action)

So basically nothing much changes and the Ottomans do EVEN WORSE(if thats possible) in the Balkan War with even more forces engaged in the Italian War.

As a side note, the Otts were doing perfectly well against the Italians in the war OTL until the Balkan League made their move. The Otts best option was to try to get Italy to agree to a Cyprus/Egypt type deal before the war even began.
 
For WW I though, I think that still fires off. If anything, Serbian national pride is going to be more on edge without the BW victory.

I'd be more concerned about Austro-Hungarian national pride. And no Balkan war could mean Conrad von Hötzendorf has less of a voice if FF still gets killed.

The Italians had invested significant time and money into Libya and the territory had been granted to the Italian Sphere following Frances seizure of Morocco. Austrias annexation of Bosnia was seen by Italy, Austrias ally at the time, as a blow to her prestige. In the Italian leaderships mind Libyan annexation was a matter of national pride.

The war was 1.3 billion lire over budget in OTL. Can Italy really afford all this?

Further, if the army performs poorly against the Ottoman reinforcements (which is quite possible), then potentially it might fatally undermine political support for the war.

As a side note, the Otts were doing perfectly well against the Italians in the war OTL until the Balkan League made their move.

Indeed. And I'm not sure the Balkan League would stay out just because Italy were thrashed (if indeed that were the outcome). If the cream of the Ottoman army is occupied against Italy in Libya, the Balkan states could be tempted even if the Ottomans are winning in Libya. And in this scenario Italy will have reason to be even more encouraging to the Balkan players than they were in OTL.

We may see an Italian government holding on like grim death as anti-war voices grow louder, seeking whatever loans they can beg, borrow or steal and doing everything they can to get the Balkan League to come in to distract the Ottomans/make their own war look more credit-worthy.

I have no idea who would win here. But I suspect it will be a giant mess.

To really head off the Balkan League, a bigger PoD is likely required - Britain or France being openly supportive, for example.

fasquardon
 
And in this scenario Italy will have reason to be even more encouraging to the Balkan players than they were in OTL.

We may see an Italian government holding on like grim death as anti-war voices grow louder, seeking whatever loans they can beg, borrow or steal and doing everything they can to get the Balkan League to come in to distract the Ottomans/make their own war look more credit-worthy.

That's really the issue though. If the Balkan powers are being openly and loudly supported by Italy and it appears the two are aligning, that's going to raise alarm bells in Vienna who (since this is the pre-2nd Baltic War fallout) isent going to be happy about a nation who's been demanding large and strategically vital swaths of her territory (including her only ports of note) allying with the nations that were a knife on her southern front and for whom several years had been constantly agitating, to the point of regiciding the pro-Austrian dynasty and triggering trade wars in Serbia. If anything is going to give Conrad's doomsaying weight, it's this: remember that the Balkan League was origionally crafted as an Anti-Habsburg defensive alliance as well, and Germany at the very least will also be cold to Rome's power grab. We also know Britain is at least friendly to the Ottomans, given their opening of transit through Egypt,so where is Italy going to get her loans or diplomatic support from? Is France and Russia really willing to go to the mat for Libya of all places?
 
That's really the issue though. If the Balkan powers are being openly and loudly supported by Italy and it appears the two are aligning, that's going to raise alarm bells in Vienna who (since this is the pre-2nd Baltic War fallout) isent going to be happy about a nation who's been demanding large and strategically vital swaths of her territory (including her only ports of note) allying with the nations that were a knife on her southern front and for whom several years had been constantly agitating, to the point of regiciding the pro-Austrian dynasty and triggering trade wars in Serbia. If anything is going to give Conrad's doomsaying weight, it's this: remember that the Balkan League was origionally crafted as an Anti-Habsburg defensive alliance as well, and Germany at the very least will also be cold to Rome's power grab. We also know Britain is at least friendly to the Ottomans, given their opening of transit through Egypt,so where is Italy going to get her loans or diplomatic support from? Is France and Russia really willing to go to the mat for Libya of all places?

I am doubtful that Italy will find generous foreigners who are willing to invest as well. Maybe Germany? Pretty sure German bankers had safer and better yielding loans they could make at this point though.

Austria-Hungary taking a pro-Ottoman position could be very interesting. 1911 is a much more favourable period for A-H to go to war in the Balkans, and a pro-Ottoman policy makes alot of practical sense (though ideally, A-H should have adopted a pro-Ottoman policy before they annexed Bosnia).

fasquardon
 
If the Ottomans win the war, they and Russia will draw closer together. The Russians and the Ottomans had a complicated relationship- yes, the Russians wanted the straits but they also were willing to help the Ottomans keep them against a third party. In the Balkan wars, that is Bulgaria that seriously threatened Russian interests At points during the Balkan Wars, the Russians threatened the Bulgarians with war if they pressed closer to Constantinople

The key to whether the Balkan Wars happen is the Ottoman Fleet. If it remains strong enough to deter Greece, then there will be no war. If the Ottomans can't do it themselves, they'll need someone else's fleet. Anyone's will do- Britain seems likely in this scenario, the Austrians or the Russians might do it as well
 
If the Ottomans win the war, they and Russia will draw closer together. The Russians and the Ottomans had a complicated relationship- yes, the Russians wanted the straits but they also were willing to help the Ottomans keep them against a third party. In the Balkan wars, that is Bulgaria that seriously threatened Russian interests At points during the Balkan Wars, the Russians threatened the Bulgarians with war if they pressed closer to Constantinople

The key to whether the Balkan Wars happen is the Ottoman Fleet. If it remains strong enough to deter Greece, then there will be no war. If the Ottomans can't do it themselves, they'll need someone else's fleet. Anyone's will do- Britain seems likely in this scenario, the Austrians or the Russians might do it as well

Would this 'partnership' survive until the First World War?
 
Would this 'partnership' survive until the First World War?

It easily could. The Russians and the Ottomans actually had very good relations under the last two Tsars. Basically, the Russians and the Ottomans came to realize that their rivalry benefited only their enemies. Russia could make no real gains while the Turks lost Bosnia to Austria, Cyprus and Egypt to Britain and Tunis to France. Alexander III reached an understanding with the Sultan that as long as the straits were open to Russian shipping and closed to foreign warships, Russia would leave him alone. Nicholas toyed with the idea of grabbing the straits during the Hamidan Massacres in 1894-96 but that was largely out of fear that Britain might try and grab them for herself. There was also a possibility that the British would do nothing if he did. He dropped the matter and returned to his father's policy

Up until the Bosnia crisis, Nicholas supports the Sultan in all his disputes with the minor Balkan states. He did everything possible to make sure the Greeks lost the 1897 war and opposed the Bulgaria's efforts to incite a rebellion in Macedonia in 1895 for example. While Russia does help facilitate the Bulgarian-Serbian agreements, the Russians opposed Greek participation as they would make the agreements anti-Turkish and not anti-Austrian. Russia firmly backs Romania during the Balkan wars as a means of checking Bulgarian aspirations for the Straits

The Russians and the Turks even held alliance talks. The Russians were willing to guarantee the Turks against the Balkan states but France and Britain wouldn't. The Ottomans entered WWI as much against the British (Egypt and Cyprus) and France (Syria and Lebanon) and the capitulations as they do against the Russians. It takes a lot for the Turks to get involved in WWI and if France and Russia had done better in August, they probably would have sat it out.
 
In a alternate timeline, the British allow the Ottomans to cross over Egypt into their territories in modern day Libya to repel the Italian invasion and they do repel the invasion. What happens next? Do the Balkan Wars still happen?

If Britain seems supportive? No Balkan Wars. But the Italo-Turkish War ends with a conference. Considering the Ottomans still had to give up Crete after crushing the Greeks it is possible the Ottomans may give up something in Libya. Or the whole thing. But no Balkan Wars is a net positive.
 
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The war does not end. Italy saw Libya in primarily two ways. First, it was seen as necessary to prove to europe that it should be counted among the Great Powers and secondly, and more importantly, it saw Libya as its sphere of influence and that dominance was being threatened.

The Italians had invested significant time and money into Libya and the territory had been granted to the Italian Sphere following Frances seizure of Morocco. Austrias annexation of Bosnia was seen by Italy, Austrias ally at the time, as a blow to her prestige. In the Italian leaderships mind Libyan annexation was a matter of national pride.

The Italians had actually been pretty clear on their intentions while the Ottomans refused to consider peace. The Italian navy was superior in every possible way and would likely threaten either Salonika or the straights (which Russia could not allow to be shut down). The Italians would simply bring further resourced to the fight, bombarding Rumelian and Coast cities of Anatolia (maybe seizing more under defended islands) until the Balkan states forced the Ottomans to relent. (There is alot of circumstantial evidence pointing to Italian pressure on Montenegro to voad the Balkan league into action)

So basically nothing much changes and the Ottomans do EVEN WORSE(if thats possible) in the Balkan War with even more forces engaged in the Italian War.

As a side note, the Otts were doing perfectly well against the Italians in the war OTL until the Balkan League made their move. The Otts best option was to try to get Italy to agree to a Cyprus/Egypt type deal before the war even began.

The problem is that Italy has no funds for the war. They were over budget and in no position to create a new front. In OTL the Italians only conquered some of the coastal cities and could not go further. Considering that in OTL about 100k Italians could not subdue Libya vs 20k Ottomans + Locals who had limited supplies there is a good chance Italy gives up the war.

The biggest problem for the Ottomans is logistics and mobilisation. With regards to Naval Warfare, the Italians have a good advantage. Marching through Egypt to Libya will take a long time.
 
If Britain seems supportive? No Balkan Wars. But the Italo-Turkish War ends with a conference. Considering the Ottomans still had to give up Crete after crushing the Greeks it is possible the Ottomans may give up something in Libya. Or the whole thing. But no Balkan Wars is a net positive.

I doubt they would be obliged to give up Triopolitania. Not with tensions reaching the point they already had and Britian demonstrating a pro-Turkish stance. Especially with Bloody Abdul gone, A-H and Britain would both come down on the Ottoman side with even just minor reform promises, and France won't dare sabotage her recent reconciliation with Britain.
 
I doubt they would be obliged to give up Triopolitania. Not with tensions reaching the point they already had and Britian demonstrating a pro-Turkish stance. Especially with Bloody Abdul gone, A-H and Britain would both come down on the Ottoman side with even just minor reform promises, and France won't dare sabotage her recent reconciliation with Britain.

Not bound to happen but it could. But as you said, if Britain has a pro-Ottoman Stance the chance of a Status Quo is likely.
 
I wonder if this might result in an alt-WW1 where the Italians are on the Central Powers side (feeling like Britain is unjustly keeping them from their place in the sun) and the Ottomans on the Entente side?

IMO that would be a much better deal for the Entente, especially because it opens the straits to Entente shipping, which massively improves things for Russia. It could also lead to Greece and Romania deciding which side to take faster than OTL. It would also be fun to see an Ottoman invasion of Bosnia. (I wonder how likely the Ottomans would be to gain Bosnia in the event of peace? If the British and Russians in this TL had moved to a pro-Ottoman stance between 1910 and whenever this WW1 starts, it could be possible.)

fasquardon
 
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