WI: The Ottomans rout the Russians in 1877-1878

You honestly think we have over 7,000 banned users?

Mainly I was making a joke at how in old threads it seems like every other user has banned under their name.

But, yeah, maybe. 27,000 members, 7,000 active. I suppose Iain or one of the mods would know.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Boy do i miss the Amernian threads... first post "wait till pasha gets here"...

Anyway... its certaily possible the ottomans could win the war... but rout the Russians i dont think so. Best the can hope for is some minor gains, which can be used as leverage in the next war they decide to have. Unless is ww1 then all bets are off.
 
In Male Rising, the Ottomans get quite a a huge victory in TTL's analog war. But the POD is in the 1830s.
 
Even if the Ottoman Empire does win the war (for some definition of "winning" - I'm not sure how well they can actually do), it might still lose the peace, like it would in 1897. Britain and the other powers were already putting pressure on Constantinople to reform, allow the creation of new autonomies etc. even before.

There will be an international conference and the Ottomans will probably be forced to accept full independence and minor territorial gains for Romania, Serbia and Montenegro; and faced with demands to create autonomous states in Bulgaria and Bosnia. The Ottomans may refuse the second part, but that would risk a very uncomfortable and dangerous isolation.
 
Well. That's disappointing.

Well we can still talk about it. He posted a ton of information. Personally I'm really interested on how it impacts the black and gay rights movements.

He also apparently has a Facebook page. I haven't contacted him yet but you could try.

Even if the Ottoman Empire does win the war (for some definition of "winning" - I'm not sure how well they can actually do), it might still lose the peace, like it would in 1897. Britain and the other powers were already putting pressure on Constantinople to reform, allow the creation of new autonomies etc. even before.

There will be an international conference and the Ottomans will probably be forced to accept full independence and minor territorial gains for Romania, Serbia and Montenegro; and faced with demands to create autonomous states in Bulgaria and Bosnia. The Ottomans may refuse the second part, but that would risk a very uncomfortable and dangerous isolation.

The entire reason the war started in the first place is because the ottomans refused the second part. They're not going to win and then tear up their heartland.

If the Ottomans successfully defend themselves, they will play a new role in the balance of power. Previously the Powers bought in to the "Sick Man of Europe" thing and perceived the Ottomans as twenty years from collapse (which I believe played a big role in Austria-Hungary doing something as stupid as siding with Russia). The war solidified that and speeded up the perception of collapse to "any day now. If they successfully defend themselves from a Great Power like Russia, this impression is dispelled and the strength of the Ottoman reforms are proven.

As AHP says:

No. But they would likely negotiate the best deal possible, then passive-aggressively sabotage or ignore harmful portions. They were able to do this in many regards even in OTL - as were the Balkan States. For instance, the newly independent countries were supposed to assume a proportionate share of the Ottoman debt - didn't happen. Rumania was required to emancipate the Jews as a condition of independence. Also didn't happen. Bismarck for a time withheld German recognition, but only as a ploy to achieve a totally different objective. The Ottomans were supposed to carry out "refoms" in "Armenia" (i.e. hand the provinces over to Christians), but managed to squirm out of that. When it comes down to it, the Powers will only care about what is in their interests. An empire that managed to defeat Russia will be weighed differently in the Balance of Power, and I think relations with the empire will be considered more important than the level of autonomy of Bosnian Christians, for example.

I think the types of demands likely to be made are going to be face-saving. For instance, a commission to review administrative practices in the Balkans and write a report on required reforms. Abdul Hamid was very determined to settle the debt issue, and that happened in OTL, and was the main issue of concern to everyone in any case. There are positives and negatives here as well. On the one hand the continued unity of the empire is in the interests of Western bondholders, but on the other hand, they tended to resist financial reform as inefficient tax collection reliably delivered to them was preferable to the risk of a reformed system.

With regard to Pan-Slavism, I don't think all forms of Slavic nationalism are out, but as a universal movement led by Russia, it would be over. More likely local movements would still be around, like South Slav nationalism, but that is easier to deal with and is even a source of potential cooperation - and conflict - between the Ottomans and Hapsburgs.

The Balkan States will get full independance but overall, winning the war will avoid one of the biggest disasters in Ottoman history.
 
Judging by what happened in OTL when the Ottomans temporarily recaptured the area around Stara Zagora and massacred up to 15 thousand and driving up to a 100 thousand to flee to Russian controlled territory north of the Balkan mountains, massive ethnic cleansing of the Bulgarian population could be expected. Scaling up for population I would say up to 400 thousand would be driven out, with perhaps a ten outright massacred.
 
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