WI: the Ottomans invaded Rome and abolish the Papacy

The exact when, as well as how much the Ottomans conquer, and how long they hold Rome, are incredibly important to the scenario. How long they hold Rome, in turn, is dependant on how capable their rulers are and what their relations with western Europe are like. Since the OP says early 15th century, I'll work from there.

Going with Selim I's reign, which gives us a nice short little window of eight years under which to accomplish it, which IOTL saw rapid expansion of the Ottoman state, it's pretty much not gonna happen. There is no reason for Selim to attack Italy. The Safavids are breathing down his neck in the east, the Mamluks are collapsing to the south, leaving him with plenty of reason to turn east. Italy, on the other hand, is under the control of Spain in the south, which in turn is quite active in the region and strong. The Papacy itself is pretty strong following the reign of Julius II, judging by its ability to wage war on the surrounding Italian states, and France itself is in control of Milan. If the Ottomans get through all of this, then not only are they idiots for even trying in the first place, they are idiots with ASBs on their side. If we wait until later then Charles V comes into his majority and inherits the Spanish throne including Naples, and then he gets the HRE as well. If we go earlier then the Ottomans are going to be weaker. Earlier, and the Ottomans don't have the naval strength for long term projection.

Best shot is probably Mehmed II's invasion, but he died so early in that it's hard to tell how far it was capable of going, and my best estimation says it isn't going to get far. While it is certainly an illusion that there would be an instant eternal crusade, when the Ottomans took Otranto IOTL France, Hungary, and several Italian states responded to the Pope's call to action, with Hungary and the Italians actually providing troops. There is going to be stiff resistance for sure, and the more troops Mehmed sends, the harder it gets to supply them, and the more risk he puts the rest of his empire at.

Basically, Ottoman Italy is a hard sell in and of itself, and without knowing how it comes about we can't make any meaningful insights into what happens when they take Rome.
 
The exact when, as well as how much the Ottomans conquer, and how long they hold Rome, are incredibly important to the scenario. How long they hold Rome, in turn, is dependant on how capable their rulers are and what their relations with western Europe are like. Since the OP says early 15th century, I'll work from there.

Going with Selim I's reign, which gives us a nice short little window of eight years under which to accomplish it, which IOTL saw rapid expansion of the Ottoman state, it's pretty much not gonna happen. There is no reason for Selim to attack Italy. The Safavids are breathing down his neck in the east, the Mamluks are collapsing to the south, leaving him with plenty of reason to turn east. Italy, on the other hand, is under the control of Spain in the south, which in turn is quite active in the region and strong. The Papacy itself is pretty strong following the reign of Julius II, judging by its ability to wage war on the surrounding Italian states, and France itself is in control of Milan. If the Ottomans get through all of this, then not only are they idiots for even trying in the first place, they are idiots with ASBs on their side. If we wait until later then Charles V comes into his majority and inherits the Spanish throne including Naples, and then he gets the HRE as well. If we go earlier then the Ottomans are going to be weaker. Earlier, and the Ottomans don't have the naval strength for long term projection.

Best shot is probably Mehmed II's invasion, but he died so early in that it's hard to tell how far it was capable of going, and my best estimation says it isn't going to get far. While it is certainly an illusion that there would be an instant eternal crusade, when the Ottomans took Otranto IOTL France, Hungary, and several Italian states responded to the Pope's call to action, with Hungary and the Italians actually providing troops. There is going to be stiff resistance for sure, and the more troops Mehmed sends, the harder it gets to supply them, and the more risk he puts the rest of his empire at.

Basically, Ottoman Italy is a hard sell in and of itself, and without knowing how it comes about we can't make any meaningful insights into what happens when they take Rome.

But, is it possible that a third nation would have helped the Ottomans to conquer Italy? Imagine that a powerful anti-Catholic Prussia would have developed earlier and managed to distract Austria and others from Italy, leaving open doors for the Ottomans to reaching Rome.
 
Before any 'sack' of Rome happens, the Ottomans have to knock out Venice and Genoa, without that it's not going to happen IMHO. If by some massive fluke they manage that there is still the small matter of the rest of Europe.
Also the matter of when it happens, if Henry VIII is King of England, it will kick off big time. Yes, England doesn't like France, Scotland, Spain and just about everyone else. Also everyone else doesn't like anyone else either.
But having the Ottomans within Catholic a country, one of their own if you like, they may well have to put this dislike aside for a while. They will be thinking 'who's next?'
Knock 7 shades out of Jonny Turk and sort the Pope thing out later.
 
Oh I don't doubt that there would be pressure, a few purists here and there perhaps. And I think that to compare the situation with the Council of Constance is slightly oranges and apples, since the Western Schismprimarily involved the Papacy at Avignon and the Papacy in Rome, the latter being doctrinally acknowledged (sort of) as the primary one. So there was an impetus to conform back to standard theological doctrine.

But with Rome in Ottoman hands, there is no more Papacy in Rome as far as Europe is concerned. So there's no more church that can claim an acknowledged doctrinal primacy over the others. And there can't be one, since all the likely candidates would be under the thumb of some powerful king and thus not accepted by the others. Hence why the church would split.

You make good points though, but I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree. :p

I think the Roman Pope escaping to Avignon is different because in that case you have a link back to the doctrine of the primacy of Rome. Avignon, in that case, would still have a strong claim to be the clear 'successor' to Rome. So even though there will be splits, it wouldn't be as total as the aforementioned scenario.

I'll agree to disagree then, the only other thing is it wouldn't be just from the purist, the kings of Europe wouldn't be content with "their" Anti-Pope just being for their country they would want theirs to be recognized as the only one.

And I also agree that if the Pope escapes, which is more likely the situation would be very different.
 
If the pope isn't captured, then he sets up in Avignon or somewhere and the papacy remains. There would be a high change of a Crusade against Italy.

Otherwise...

Assuming that this isn't followed up with an invasion of Germany, France, or Spain, I think there's a decent chance of the Church splintering. I agree the Ottomans wouldn't abolish the Papacy so much as subjugate it.

I think the best timeframe would be the early 16th century, likely following an Ottoman victory at Malta. In that case, we can rule out a united response. England is Anglican by now. The Venetians would probably just accept the authority of the Ottoman pope. France would either maneuver its way into getting control of the papacy, or set up their own antipope in Avignon to counter the one in Madrid. The Austrians would support Madrid, but with Ottomans in Italy and Venice siding with Constantinople, I think the odds are in favor of a subsequent Ottoman conquest of Austria. After that, Germany goes completely Protestant. The good news is that we might avoid the Thirty Years' War, particularly if we end up with a Protestant Emperor.
 
If the pope isn't captured, then he sets up in Avignon or somewhere and the papacy remains. There would be a high change of a Crusade against Italy.

Otherwise...

Assuming that this isn't followed up with an invasion of Germany, France, or Spain, I think there's a decent chance of the Church splintering. I agree the Ottomans wouldn't abolish the Papacy so much as subjugate it.

I think the best timeframe would be the early 16th century, likely following an Ottoman victory at Malta. In that case, we can rule out a united response. England is Anglican by now. The Venetians would probably just accept the authority of the Ottoman pope. France would either maneuver its way into getting control of the papacy, or set up their own antipope in Avignon to counter the one in Madrid. The Austrians would support Madrid, but with Ottomans in Italy and Venice siding with Constantinople, I think the odds are in favor of a subsequent Ottoman conquest of Austria. After that, Germany goes completely Protestant. The good news is that we might avoid the Thirty Years' War, particularly if we end up with a Protestant Emperor.

So we can assume that Germany would have been unified much earlier than in OTL, maybe including parts of Switzerland and the Benelux.
 

Asami

Banned
So we can assume that Germany would have been unified much earlier than in OTL, maybe including parts of Switzerland and the Benelux.

If the Turks seize Ostmark (Austria) then yes, you'd likely see a scramble by the Protestant princes to conglomerate to halt the Turkish tide, and Catholic princes, distraught at the fall of the Papacy *and* Austria, would band up with them, creating some "Germania" that was much stronger than the practically "paper only" HRE.
 
So we can assume that Germany would have been unified much earlier than in OTL, maybe including parts of Switzerland and the Benelux.

No we can't.

What forces are there to unite Germany. There are still hundreds of petty and not so petty princes who want to be top dog.

Prussia is still basically a non-entity at this point, and its in France's interest to keep Germany disunited. You are very likely to see French gains if the Hapsburgs collapse.
 
Assuming this wasn't a fluke invasion, hey Ottoman Empire powerful enough to take Rome would probably go on to conquer the New World. Muslim superiority would be engraved in the public worldview, and the more authoritarian versions of Protestantism
might thrive because of militarism and the idea that God is punishing Christendom for its impurities

Why? Even if they control all of Italy it's still confined to the Mediterranean. I mean yeah they have an Indian Ocean presence but getting to America through that route is insane. What's more likely here is Catholicism splintering into localized churches in Christian kingdoms.
 
But, is it possible that a third nation would have helped the Ottomans to conquer Italy? Imagine that a powerful anti-Catholic Prussia would have developed earlier and managed to distract Austria and others from Italy, leaving open doors for the Ottomans to reaching Rome.
Prussia didn't begin to become powerful until the late 1700s, when the Ottomans were well past their prime and not actively threatening Italy. Not only that, but Prussia isn't anywhere near reaching Italy anyways, and won't be until the unification of Germany, which happened after the Ottomans had lost Greece. Prussian-Ottoman tag team is probably not gonna happen.
 
Prussia didn't begin to become powerful until the late 1700s, when the Ottomans were well past their prime and not actively threatening Italy. Not only that, but Prussia isn't anywhere near reaching Italy anyways, and won't be until the unification of Germany, which happened after the Ottomans had lost Greece. Prussian-Ottoman tag team is probably not gonna happen.

Yes, I know that. The idea I tried to explore is if a powerful northern German state would have developed at that moment (i.e. the Teutonic Order managed to build a sort of empire-like state from Baltic to Danube having conquered Poland) maybe they could have pushed the Ottomans against Austria and the papacy, in order to gain supremacy in the German sphere afterwards.
Remember that the Knights had developed some hostility against the Papacy once they relocated their bases to Malbork.
 
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