WI: The Ottoman’s “Enver-Leontiev Treaty” came to pass?

Agreed on this part, though Greece would not have to give up any parts of Thrace, but rather some Aegean Islands.
Islands which had been occupied by Greece during the First Balkan War and adjudicated to it by the Great Powers precisely in exchange for its abandoning claims on Northern Epirus/southern Albania. From the Greek POV, leaving some claimed lands to a weak and unstable state like Albania is one thing, leaving strategically important islands in Ottoman hands, with no sureties about their population's fate, is quite another. They chose the islands in early 1914, and they won't change that later in the year, especially since Venizelos saw the opportunity (as happened IOTL) to reoccupy Northern Epirus all the same.

Given that by July 1914 not only is the Greco-Ottoman naval race in full swing, but the Ottomans are actually beginning ethnic cleansing of Greek populations from the coasts of Anatolia, getting the Greeks to agree won't be easy. Plus agreeing to an expansion of Bulgaria that would cut Greece off from its ally Serbia would be seen as a suicidal move, only preparing the way for a future Bulgarian invasion of Greek Macedonia. The deal would have to be reworked into a far more comprehensive agreement among all sides (who were not consulted IOTL), and strong British backing of it, before Venizelos committed himself to it. The agreement was more wishful thinking on the part of Enver (regaining the Aegean islands, the hot topic of the day, would raise his prestige, and if he could manage to keep the Ottomans out of the war, all the better) rather than a well-thought-out political arrangement.
 
Islands which had been occupied by Greece during the First Balkan War and adjudicated to it by the Great Powers precisely in exchange for its abandoning claims on Northern Epirus/southern Albania. From the Greek POV, leaving some claimed lands to a weak and unstable state like Albania is one thing, leaving strategically important islands in Ottoman hands, with no sureties about their population's fate, is quite another. They chose the islands in early 1914, and they won't change that later in the year, especially since Venizelos saw the opportunity (as happened IOTL) to reoccupy Northern Epirus all the same.

Given that by July 1914 not only is the Greco-Ottoman naval race in full swing, but the Ottomans are actually beginning ethnic cleansing of Greek populations from the coasts of Anatolia, getting the Greeks to agree won't be easy. Plus agreeing to an expansion of Bulgaria that would cut Greece off from its ally Serbia would be seen as a suicidal move, only preparing the way for a future Bulgarian invasion of Greek Macedonia. The deal would have to be reworked into a far more comprehensive agreement among all sides (who were not consulted IOTL), and strong British backing of it, before Venizelos committed himself to it. The agreement was more wishful thinking on the part of Enver (regaining the Aegean islands, the hot topic of the day, would raise his prestige, and if he could manage to keep the Ottomans out of the war, all the better) rather than a well-thought-out political arrangement.

All very important points showing just now much other problems this would have.

To note though:

1. We aren't sure which of the Aegean Islands were specified but the effect is likely to be the same regardless. [Can you expound more on the islands you were referring to by the way? It was quite interesting]

2. The area of Macedonia to be ceded wasn't specified either. It did say "parts" of Macedonia and this was the same description of what all three Entente powers also called on Serbia to cede to Bulgaria. So it could be a smaller area than what I had shown and could well have still left Greece and Serbia with a border.
 

Deleted member 94680

Plus agreeing to an expansion of Bulgaria that would cut Greece off from its ally Serbia would be seen as a suicidal move, only preparing the way for a future Bulgarian invasion of Greek Macedonia.

Greece given Albania would have a border with Serbia.
 
If Serbia is giving up a slice of Macedonia, I'm thinking they're going to demand a full partition of Albania.

Below is the intended division of Albania during the first Balkan War.

Srpska_osvajanja_1912.png


There would likely be population exchanges, with the Albanians ending up in the Ottoman Empire and the Ottomans handing over their Greeks and Armenians.




OTL Greece considered ceding Kavala to Bulgaria around 1914. If Bulgaria is surrendering western Thrace, I think it's likely the Greeks might try that here.
 

Deleted member 94680

If Serbia is giving up a slice of Macedonia, I'm thinking they're going to demand a full partition of Albania.

OTL Greece considered ceding Kavala to Bulgaria around 1914. If Bulgaria is surrendering western Thrace, I think it's likely the Greeks might try that here.

That would give Bulgaria a Mediterranean seaport, which would be advantageous, but whats the benefit for Greece?
 
If Serbia is giving up a slice of Macedonia, I'm thinking they're going to demand a full partition of Albania.

Below is the intended division of Albania during the first Balkan War.

Srpska_osvajanja_1912.png


There would likely be population exchanges, with the Albanians ending up in the Ottoman Empire and the Ottomans handing over their Greeks and Armenians.




OTL Greece considered ceding Kavala to Bulgaria around 1914. If Bulgaria is surrendering western Thrace, I think it's likely the Greeks might try that here.

Would that destroy Albanian nationism? Supposing they're primarily concentrated in the former Armenian territory, might they there establish a new Albania?
 
Would that destroy Albanian nationism? Supposing they're primarily concentrated in the former Armenian territory, might they there establish a new Albania?

Wiki says there are between 500,000 and 5,000,000 Albanians in Turkey today. The Turkish defense council put it at 1,300,000 with just 500,000 being very culturally tied to being Albanian (the 5,000,000 figure people including persons of mixed ancestry) as opposed to being a person who is Albanian. Given how they were sort of the second most prominent group in the Empire after the Turks, I suppose they could fit in fine.

That would give Bulgaria a Mediterranean seaport, which would be advantageous, but whats the benefit for Greece?

A lack of Bulgarian enmity? They were willing to make the cession OTL just to make Bulgaria happy.

If horsetrading is absolutely necessary, then Bitola/Monastir is probably what the Greeks would want in exchange.
 
1. We aren't sure which of the Aegean Islands were specified but the effect is likely to be the same regardless. [Can you expound more on the islands you were referring to by the way? It was quite interesting]

2. The area of Macedonia to be ceded wasn't specified either. It did say "parts" of Macedonia and this was the same description of what all three Entente powers also called on Serbia to cede to Bulgaria. So it could be a smaller area than what I had shown and could well have still left Greece and Serbia with a border.

On the Aegean islands, given the time period in question, it is pretty clear which are meant: the eastern Aegean islands, i.e. Chios, Lesbos, Lemnos, Imbros and Tenedos (and their minor attendant islands), which were occupied by Greece from the Ottomans during the war. IOTL, these were confirmed as Greek (minus Imbros and Tenedos) in exchange for Greece dropping its claims on Northern Epirus. Since the two issues were connected, this is evidently the intention behind the proposed swap.

Likewise on Macedonia, the hot topic was the zone beyond the demarkation line that Serbia and Bulgaria had previously agreed upon, only for events during the First Balkan War to lead the Serbs to occupy more territory, and after it to decide to keep it due to them being 'deprived' of their spoils in Albania by Austria and Italy. It is true that some modified variant might emerge, but the haggling alone would be extremely complicated and would well have dragged on for months. Iit is a fair guess that it would be an order of magnitude more complex than the OTL haggling with Bulgaria for its entry into the war
 
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