WI the other Great Powers prevent German unification

What if, after some deep thought, one of the Great Powers considers the prospect and impact of German unification in the mid 19th century, and manages to persuade the other Great Powers to prevent the expansion of Prussia?

With Prussian power suppressed at all costs by the other powers, and no hope of German unification, how would late 19th century and 20th century history have panned out?

Would France and Britain be able to just keep Austria-Hungary and Russia in check by playing them off against each other when one of them tried to expand into the Balkans?

Could WW1 have been avoided: perhaps Austria-Hungary would be humiliated by the other Great Powers when they side with Serbian nationalists over Franz Ferdinand's assassination, forcing a small indeminity on Serbia and nothing more. Austria-Hungary could have been the next "sick man" after the Ottoman Empire breaking apart in Europe, and there would have been a potentially more peaceful nationalist movement in Eastern and Central Europe in the 20th century?

Without all the worries about reparations, maybe the Wall Street Crash wouldn't have been so harsh, lessening some of the extremes of the 1930's.

Would the Russian Empire have democratised further, or was revolution inevitable without WW1? If it didn't happen, or failed, would there even have been a Cold War? Perhaps only relatively small European states, like Czechoslovakia, would give communism a go (and fail), thus discrediting the ideology before it spreads worldwide?

How much longer would the European empires/ European dominated world have lasted without the huge world wars?
 
I think a PoD that could work for this would be if the 1848 Revolutions had been more successful leading to the creation of united German state that lasts for a few years at least before collapsing due to internal disagreements. This would alert the other great powers to the dangers of German unification by making it seem like a much more real and scary prospect.

To suppress Prussia the other great powers would support Austria against Prussia to strengthen Austria and further continue the Austro-Prussian dualism that had kept Germany disunited since the Vienna Settlement and was IOTL ended by Prussia's crushing of Austria in the 1866 Austro-Prussian War.

Assuming this policy of containing Prussia by supporting Austria succeeds in keeping Germany disunited, I think by the 1890s there's going to be quite a lot of calls within the German states for unification, particularly from business interests and landowners who want access to a larger goods and labour market. The continuing fragmentation of Germany will also hold back its industrial development (which is what the great powers want). This perhaps could lead to France becoming Britain's major European economic rival, causing a souring of relations between them (maybe furthered by more colonial competition in Africa - particularly around OTL Togo and Cameroon with there being no German colonies there ITTL). If this Anglo-French rivalry gets really bad one of them could break ranks and support Prussia, upsetting the balance of power and - along with German fustrations due to their disunity - make Germany another potential powder-keg just waiting to explode, along with the Balkans. So perhaps a very different Great War?! That's just me thinking aloud but it does show the possibilities.

Any similar incident to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand would probably, as you say, be a much more localised affair, mostly likely an Austro-Russian war with Russia supporting Serbia and Britain and France (if they're still on talking terms) on the Austrian side, probably attacking Russia via the Baltic and Crimea. If Prussia does use this as an opportunity to attack Austria though the whole thing could escalate as OTL WW1 did although I think the war would still be won by the Austrian alliance, keeping the Austro-Hungarian Empire alive as the 'sick man of Europe' and as a bonus most of the fighting involving Prussia would have been in Germany, further weakening Prussia.

With Russia being on the losing side of a war that saw it being invaded on multiple fronts, the Tsarist regime is going to be severely weakened, although by how much depends on the Tsar himself (Nicholas II's father was only 3 in 1848). As for Communism, it will still be around and the social conditions of poverty and inequality will still be there in Russia so who knows? As you can see by this point it's basically up to you what direction you want to take with the TL.
 
Last edited:
What if, after some deep thought, one of the Great Powers considers the prospect and impact of German unification in the mid 19th century, and manages to persuade the other Great Powers to prevent the expansion of Prussia?

With Prussian power suppressed at all costs by the other powers, and no hope of German unification, how would late 19th century and 20th century history have panned out?

Would France and Britain be able to just keep Austria-Hungary and Russia in check by playing them off against each other when one of them tried to expand into the Balkans?

Could WW1 have been avoided: perhaps Austria-Hungary would be humiliated by the other Great Powers when they side with Serbian nationalists over Franz Ferdinand's assassination, forcing a small indeminity on Serbia and nothing more. Austria-Hungary could have been the next "sick man" after the Ottoman Empire breaking apart in Europe, and there would have been a potentially more peaceful nationalist movement in Eastern and Central Europe in the 20th century?

Without all the worries about reparations, maybe the Wall Street Crash wouldn't have been so harsh, lessening some of the extremes of the 1930's.

Would the Russian Empire have democratised further, or was revolution inevitable without WW1? If it didn't happen, or failed, would there even have been a Cold War? Perhaps only relatively small European states, like Czechoslovakia, would give communism a go (and fail), thus discrediting the ideology before it spreads worldwide?

How much longer would the European empires/ European dominated world have lasted without the huge world wars?

And 1974 World cup game between Poland and Germany would be won by Poles with walkover, cause there would be no Germany. :D
 
You have to start from your first PoD and see what changes that makes rather than to keep jumping to new OTL events that probably won't occur here

If we assume that things go as per OTL, the question is whether the powers step in in 1864 over Schleswig-Holstein. The British Prince of Wales IS married to a Danish royal and there was a degree of anti-German sentiment over the war, but as it was played by Prussia as a pan-Germanic war with Austria as co-belligerent, its not looking the best time

That leaves 1866 and here its the action of France in OTL that hovered on the knife-edge.

It might be useful to have Maximilian turn down the Mexican crown, so that Anglo-French relations are not so strained, and so also France has more forces available at this period.

One could then imagine a united Anglo-French front against Prussian ambitions, preventing the 1866 war

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Top