WI: the Ostrogoths won the Gothic War?

Would the Lombards still conquer chunks of the Peninsula?

  • Yeah.

    Votes: 15 39.5%
  • No.

    Votes: 13 34.2%
  • Maybe.

    Votes: 10 26.3%

  • Total voters
    38
In order to have the Ostrogoths actually winning I say the first.
After a defeat in a war as long as the Gothic one I don't think he would try a second time and maybe this might be a problem for the early victory scenario.

In that case, we get something very similar to the Kingdom of the Lombards. Not sure how long it would last, but it could have a reasonable chance at longevity if it can build up and remain a deterrent towards the Franks.
 
At the Siege of Naples, Belisarius had only 8000 men; he would have 10600 at Rome the next year, so not a big difference in numbers for him, but hey, its something.

Furthermore, unlike with Rome, which immediately accepted Justinian's rule, the citizens of Naples decided to resist Belisarius, and formed a militia to fight alongside 800 Gothic soldiers. Now, Naples did eventually fall, but in large part due to the failure of the Gothic king, Theodahad, to come to the assistance of the city in time, leading to his overthrow by Vitiges. Belisarius would later go on to defeat Vitiges in the Siege of Rome due to having the support of the Roman citizens and thus the ability to quarter his army behind the protective walls of the city of Rome; in an alternate world where Theodahad does come to Naples, Belisarius would not have this liberty. At Rome, Vitiges did have 25000-45000 men which Theodahad would likely also have at Naples, thus Belisarius would not only be heavily outnumbered but would be out in the open to Gothic attack as well.

Now, we all know he could just pull off another spectacular victory like the Battle of Dara or Ad Decimum, but this is alternate history guys, we're not just going to make some small change to the world only to get the same end result. For the sake of the POD, Belisarius loses, and is killed in battle. Whether Narses also lands in 538 is up for you to decide, but lets say he does; in my opinion, given his measly force of 7000 men, which was intended only as reinforcements, he would lose, but potentially this untested commander is given an actual force, do you think he wins or loses?

Belisarius defeated at Naples would be perfect for the TL, but it may mean a long lasting Theodahad's kingdom (And so no popular myth of Amalasuntha's revenge.)

Belisarius failing to take Naples is obviously one of the best straight up PODs (the other is Eutharic surviving his early death) to guarantee a strong Italo-Gothic kingdom.
The problem is that Theodahad was not the sharpest tool on the rack (I'd go as far as suggesting he might find difficult to organize a piss-up in a brewery :winkytongue:), although -looking at the problem more seriously - his sin appears to be the failure to call up Gothic levies after Belisarius got to Sicily (IIRC, I read somewhere that Theodahad was trying to negotiate with Justinian: this does not justify his lack of pro-activity, but might explain his inertia). Vitiges was crowned in 536 after his marriage to Matasuntha, and immediately had Theodahad killed. Now I was unable to find when exactly Vitiges was crowned, but Belisarius left Sicily for Italy in the spring of 536 and his troops entered Naples after a three weeks siege in November. Calling the Gothic levies was quite a cumbersome affair, and there was obviously no standing army. I doubt that Vitiges can confront Belisarius at the siege of Naples even if he's crowned (and Theodahad is eliminated) in the spring of 536, although if the marriage/crowning is held in Ravenna most of the Gothic chieftains would be in attendance and there would be an opportunity to jump-start the process of calling up the levies. Theoretically, coronation of Vitiges in April, three months to call the levies and three months to march to Naples would put the Gothic army in front of Belisarius at the end of September/beginning of October when the siege is just starting. Consider however that the logistics of the Gothic army were pretty laughable, and could not compare with the Roman army supported by the fleet. I go back again to the start: the news of Belisarius invasion of Sicily should have reached Ravenna by late 535, and it is surprising that no preparation at all was undertaken.

Another POD would be not having Theoderic the Great's heir, Eutharic, die in 522 and let him live on to inherit the dual Gothic thrones. Sure, Eutharic would be an old man, aorund 65 when Belisarius invades, but the combined power of both Italy and Spain resisting Belisarius' advance could be decisive, and the presence of numerous Ostrogothic kings including the great Totila after Theodahad's death showed that there was no shortage of Gothic commanders to help him fight, and I feel there is great potential for Totila's name to still rise into the annals of history in the case of such a conflict, distinguishing himself in battle.

Eutharic surviving and being crowned king would have certainly been a great improvement for the Goths, although there are not a lot of sources who would allow us to judge him. Theoderic's death in 515 or thereso would have helped, since Eutharic would have been crowned king and his death would possibly be butterflied away. It is also likely that Justinian would not have jumped on the invasion of Italy if the succession had been stable.

The mettle of Gothic commanders is also doubtful, although some of them must have gained experience fighting against the Franks in Provence or on the N-E border of Italy.
 
Sounds interesting. How about a Lombard mutiny at Taginae? If the situation was as desperate for the Ostrogoths as you pointed then an alliance with Audoin in the 550's doesn't sound unbelievable and perhaps, hearing rumors of their king (Admitting they recognized him as king.) siding with Totila the Lombard foederates in Narses' army may switch side.
Of course the same rumors may convince Narses to massacre or send far away his Lombards before meeting the Goths.
This would decrease his numbers (The problem is how many Lombars did fight for him?) which could have an impact on the battle if Narses isn't able to substitute them (I highly doubt of him not being able to do it.) that means the latter Audoin sides with Totila the harsher it might be for the Byzantines.
Of course the Lombards need to march to Taginae from Pannonia (Bratislava-Gualdo Tadino is roughly 900 Km. 2-3 months?) and so there're some limits to "the latter".

Best case scenario for the Ostrogoths and the Lombards using these proposals:
• During Winter 551 Totila and Audoin agree to let the Lombards settle in Friuli and Eastern (Nowadays.) Veneto.
• In Spring they cross the Alps and start marching South to meet the main Gothic army.
• The first courier(s) who are/is riding their/his horse(s) to Byzantium fall(s) and break(s) their/his neck(s). First delay.
• The courier(s)'s ship from Constantinople is caught in a storm and destroyed. Second delay.
• Other troubles with the courier(s)' horse(s) in Southern Italy. Third delay.
• Add as many possible delays and distractions as are necessary to get to two months (Persian attack in Syria?).
• As soon as Narses hears about the new alliance he thinks about sending his Lombards to Syria and so he does, but he's forced by Justinian to send also a small part of his archers (The real reason of OTL victory.) and many foederates too.
• He's able to raise some substitutes in the remaining weeks.
• Battle of (I'm actually no more sure about Taginae, maybe Narses decides to avoid an open battle, but since this is a best case scenario...) somewhere Narses is forced to retreat and both sides suffer heavy casualties.
• Narses is moved to Syria.
• By 553 the Byzantine leave most of Italy.

It is a bit convoluted, but the main problem is that by 553 the war in Italy has been going on for 18 years and the plague has already decimated the population (not to mention that the most important cities have been sacked). A Totila victory is likely to be Phyrric one.
 
It is a bit convoluted, but the main problem is that by 553 the war in Italy has been going on for 18 years and the plague has already decimated the population (not to mention that the most important cities have been sacked). A Totila victory is likely to be Phyrric one.
Not a problem.
A Phyrric victory is enough and may open the Italian stage to someone else in the following decades.
Lombard backstabbers? Franks? (Less likely) Àvars?
 
Not a problem.
A Phyrric victory is enough and may open the Italian stage to someone else in the following decades.
Lombard backstabbers? Franks? (Less likely) Àvars?

I thought you wanted a surviving and prosperous Gothic kingdom, not just Totila going down in flames after having performed very well in his kingship, both on the military side and on the political one.
As a bare minimum, Totila should decisively win the battle of Taginae: without going to follow your complicated way, I suggest that the Lombard mercenaries in the host of Narses (some 5,000 out of 20,000 troops apparently) might mutiny just before the battle (or alternatively change sides during the battle, which would be even more effective. Something similar happened at the battle of the Volturnus (OTL 553), when the Herul contingent (some 400 men) refused to take part in the battle because one of their chieftains was executed by Narses for killing a servant. At Taginae it might be something similar, or possibly an Arian priest killed by Greek troops in a riot. Even better and sneakier, Totila might send some of his own clergy to suborn the Lombards.
Once the victory is achieved, and the Byzantine army broken, Totila should address the need of re-populating Italy and invite Alemanni, Franks and Lombards to move to Italy with the promise of land and honorable positions. He did apparently something similar IOTL: Franks and Alemanni warriors moved to Italy and ended up increasing the devastation (not to mention that a lot of them was killed at the battle of the Volturnus). This time around he would make his invitation from a position of strength rather than as a beggar asking for help. The a. m. Lombard mercenaries would also benefit from this approach and would be instrumental in inviting warriors of their farae to settle down in Italy with their families. It would also be more in line with the Lombard mentality: the kingship of the Lombards is much less established than the kingship of the Goths: the Lombard rulers were effectively the chieftains of the farae. Totila is still young enough to have another 25 years on the throne: if he can meld together these different peoples and involve the native population of Italy too, he would succeed in strengthening the Gothic kingdom (the more so if he also manages good relations with the Goths in Spain, although this would be less vital)
 
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