Italy is much, much, much less wrecked in terms of population/farmlands/urbanization. This is the sort of place that can be rallied to bouce the Lombards (or at least provide the tax resources to hire Imperial troops to do so) and retain Latin culture/civilization to a vastly greater degree.What would have happened if the Ostrogoths who lost Italy in OTL were defeated in and annexed by the Byzantine Empire in less then a few years instead of three decades?
Wouldn't that just be a slight overstretch of Rome's manpower?Justinian would take on the next target: Iberia / Hispania. After that, Gaul (where the Franks are) might follow. Unless he decided that a war agaisnt Persia is more important.
You could say the same thing about OTL, and it didn't stop him.
The most easy POD for this scenario is Justinian keeping Belisarius in Italy. Belisarius managed to convince to Ostrogoths that he was willing to become their king and turn on Justinian, and so they let him into Ravenna. Ravenna was a incredibly hard city to take by siege, but Belisarius' ploy allowed him into the city with a sizable contingent of his own soldiers and he seized control of the city. So he had basically conquered Ostrogoth-occupied Italy with a bare minimum of blood-shed. His acceptance of the Ostrogothic crown however caused lots of suspicion in the mind of Justinian, and the Emperor recalled Belisarius. With Belisarius gone the Ostrogoths threw off the Romans and nearly retook Italy, beginning the series of destructive offensives and counter-offensives that wrecked Italy (and wiped out the Ostrogoths) over the next decades. These offensives allowed the Bulgars and Slavs to invade the Balkans and the Lombards to invade Italy.
So Belisarius stays in Italy, and is able to keep control of the Ostrogoths. If Justinian doesn't launch an invasion of Spain immediately, but instead allows Belisarius to run Italy for a few years, the Byzantines (really we should probably be calling them the New Romans or something, since they weren't Byzantines yet) will probably be able to put some security steps in place to guarentee control of Italy. I'm thinking noble hostages, diplomatic marriages, bribery, and recognition of the Ostrogoths' special legal status would be a good policy, and is probably pretty plausible. Though the Ostrogoths resent Roman rule, their sons are in Constantinople (as guests being educated in the household of the Emperor of courseand their own social status and legal standing is antebellum, so in the end their not going to launch a suicidal rebellion. In fact, many sign on for glory, adventure, and gold, in Belisarius' new mission, bringing Hispania back into the Empire.
How is that for a happy ending?
Quick Note on the Plague of Justinian- I don't think that it can be avoided. IMO the plague is something of a kind with the Black Death, an epidemic disease that cannot be avoided. If steps are taken to make Italy loyal however, the Plague shouldn't shake Roman control of Italy, in fact the cheap addition of Italy may even have sated Justinian's revanchism and ended up strengthening Byzantine forces.
There's no way in hell any sane minded ruler is going to allow one of their generals be crowned, especially the king of paranoia that was Justinian, especially if his name was Belisarius. That unless you radically change Justinian's personality won't happen. And the 4 weak generals after were due to that same paranoia. His throne was of course worth a lot more than Italy.
What you'd have to do is get rid of that trick and get some smashing victory against the Goths. Otherwise Belisarius is out of there, Plague comes and Italy is frankly lost. Italy may not be the greatest blessing on the empire though most of its mineral deposits are gone (that the Romans knew about), the land was tied up in huge senatorial estates, and the trading cities were nothing to be proud of. Rome itself was nothing to be proud of. Italy may or may not be shaken as hard from the plague but it might actually be greater due to increased trade with the empire.
Now what we can hope for is that Justinian is either sane or dies from the plague. Because if he does try to go on conquering after the plague he will bring the empire to its knees. Just trying to defend the new borders and reincoporate Africa, Sicily, and Italy into the Empire will take years before profit and will take the entire military to defend it. And he must make peace with the Persians, although I think they'd be pretty willing considering they're undergoing the same thing. The Persian War of 540 was a pretty ugly thing with the plague going on during it.
I never understand the link between the Avars/Bulgars and the Slavs to the Gothic Wars exactly. I can understand the Lombards. The reason they were able to penetrate the empire was due to Justinian's foolish spending, and second the decemation of manpower reserves from the plague. Population fell around 25-35% in the Eastern Empire, and did not reach pre-plague levels until the height of the Macedonians. Justin II and Maruice had hardly any men compared to early Roman armies, no money to pay them, and barely anyone to tax.
In the long run it's still pretty bleak for the Romans with the plague, I think all it might change is that maybe South Italy and Sicily become so hellenized that they aren't considered part of Italy anymore. And who knows if history somehow repeats itself we could have an Ottoman Empire based in Istanbul and a Byzantine one based in Syracuse.![]()
To solve Justinian's personality let's say Theodora convinces him to let Belisarius take the Osthrogothic Crown.
What if Justinian slips on the stairs or dies in some other random accident at an opportune moment, and Belisarius takes the crown?