WI: The Oregon Country becomes independent

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PoD is John McLoughlin became the leader of the Provisional Government of Oregon instead of George Abernethy (McLoughlin was a pro-independence figure in OTL). So the Provisional Government decided to declare its independence as a de facto sovereign state in order to solve the 54'40 dispute once and for all. Would an independent Oregon Country be a stable democracy or it will be absorbed by another great power? How would this affect the Manifest Destiny?
 
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