WI: The Oregon Border Conflict Becomes a War During the Mexican American War

So James K. Polk who was president of the US during the Mexican-American war almost drove the US into a second war against Britain over Oregon. In the end his managed to resolve the border conflict peacefully. But in truth the "All Oregon" ideology was just as popular (and much more realistic) than the "All Mexico" ideology that some members of his administration held.

WI: the Oregon conflict erupts into a war right before the Mexican American war gets going?
The war against Mexico is doomed to happen as Texas has already been annexed by Tyler, and President Herrera (who wanted to solve this peacefully) has already been deposed and the Mexicans are pleading Santa Anna's return from Cuba with the war mongering Paredes holding the presidential office while Santa Anna gets back. But this time the US is already fighting a war against Britain in a Northern Front.
Would the US quickly sue for peace against Britain and focus in Mexico? Or would they rather accept Attocha's terms and only buy Texas and California north of the San Francisco Bay from Mexico so the can focus their fight against Britain? Or would they be bold enough to take on both?
Britain and Mexico are not allies but Britain was very keen on seeing and independent Texas. By now that is not possible but an independent California is.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
The Americans need out of the war with Britain, immediately. Their chances are much, much worse than an ACW era conflict since the railroad network is nacant.

The British, for their part, will play the role they played in 1812, but will be able to focus exclusively on the US and have steamships that free themselves from a lot of the logistical shackles that held them back in 1812.
 
one problem with this scenario is that the whole '54-40 or fight' was a bluff... Polk had no intention of going to war with Britain over Oregon, and wanted the border right where it actually ended up at in OTL. If it ever actually looked as if Britain might go to war, I find it more likely that Polk would suddenly be quiet on the issue, and let the Oregon situation (the whole joint occupation thing) continue as is. But the US is still likely to get what it wants anyway, since US settlers are pouring into what is now OR and WA, and ownership by the US there will be a given.
If the Brits go so far as to declare war (and they will have to be the ones to start it), then I'd think Polk would bluster but try to get a peace ASAP. If he can't get it, then the US is likely to lose the whole of OR...
 
one problem with this scenario is that the whole '54-40 or fight' was a bluff... Polk had no intention of going to war with Britain over Oregon, and wanted the border right where it actually ended up at in OTL. If it ever actually looked as if Britain might go to war, I find it more likely that Polk would suddenly be quiet on the issue, and let the Oregon situation (the whole joint occupation thing) continue as is. But the US is still likely to get what it wants anyway, since US settlers are pouring into what is now OR and WA, and ownership by the US there will be a given.
If the Brits go so far as to declare war (and they will have to be the ones to start it), then I'd think Polk would bluster but try to get a peace ASAP. If he can't get it, then the US is likely to lose the whole of OR...

Not to mention this would have adverse effects on the Mexican war as well. They'd have to reach Mexico City over land since naval superiority is gone and they'd be trying to project power across a continent by power of the foot.

It'd be a logistical nightmare for the US. Who knows, we could see a British Dominion of Cascadia which would be kind of neat. Wonder what effects losing Oregon would have on the Civil War?
 
one problem with this scenario is that the whole '54-40 or fight' was a bluff... Polk had no intention of going to war with Britain over Oregon, and wanted the border right where it actually ended up at in OTL. If it ever actually looked as if Britain might go to war, I find it more likely that Polk would suddenly be quiet on the issue, and let the Oregon situation (the whole joint occupation thing) continue as is. But the US is still likely to get what it wants anyway, since US settlers are pouring into what is now OR and WA, and ownership by the US there will be a given.
If the Brits go so far as to declare war (and they will have to be the ones to start it), then I'd think Polk would bluster but try to get a peace ASAP. If he can't get it, then the US is likely to lose the whole of OR...

The 54-40 was a bluff, but the problem with bluffs if that sometimes they become more than bluffs. And even though Polk meant it as a bluff others in his administration did not. A few scrambles in the west between Americans and British could easily turn into the war.
And if a war does break out and Polk quickly tries to get a peace. It doesn't seem logical that the British would accept a status quo ante bellum since the joint partnership clearly did not work.

It'd be a logistical nightmare for the US. Who knows, we could see a British Dominion of Cascadia which would be kind of neat. Wonder what effects losing Oregon would have on the Civil War?

It would also be interesting to consider how the war against Mexico would turn out. As already stated it would be a logistical nightmare. The US would need most of its fleet in the North to take on Britain. Thus the blockade in Veracruz might not hold. Without the blockade and the march into Mexico City the Mexicans are likely to continue fighting for much longer. And an invasion through land across Texas, Coahuila and Zacatecas into the center of Mexico is a long long trek through desert (or swamp if you take a coastal route).
However if the US is fighting a war against Britian would it be capable of paying the terms laid out by Atocha at the beginning of the War (this was a new border from the San Francisco Bay to the Rio Grande plus 30 million dollars for Mexico).
Also the more the war prolongs the more chances Santa Anna gets to centralize power in Mexico. Which would definitively change the way Mexico gets governed after the war.

As far as the Civil War goes I think the absence of a large California as in OTL (I am assuming the US will end up at least with the Sacramento Valley and the northern half of San Francisco Bay ... at least) would have a much larger impact. The Mexcians will not discover the gold till much later and even when they do it would probably end up in the government's hands or in the hands of some rich land owners so a gold rush and huge spiking of population wont happen. This means the East (in particular the mid west) would be much more densely populated.
 
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It really isn't very likely.

Polk is remembered as one of the most successful of US presidents, having actually achieved all of his major campaign goals, something extremely rare in any country. Such things don't happen by accident and someone that good at achieving his goals isn't likely to stumble into a major war against his will.

At the first hint of trouble Polk casually recalls the sanctity of the 49th as a border, quietly makes the concession of certain islands dipping south of that, as he did OTL, and the problem is solved. Now, as to why the British would suddenly change their position in the first place...
 
Well, Polk wanted the border to be on the 49th the whole time, and Britain got antsy about it for some reason, so Polk brought up the whole 54-40 or fight thing as a bluff. It might not have worked, except that Britain got distracted by some other colonial crisis (can't remember which), decided the whole thing wasn't worth it, and agreed to the 49th border anyway. Which is why I doubt that it would lead to war in the first place, since Polk isn't going to let things escalate that much. But if it did, it would be bad news for the US...
 

67th Tigers

Banned
I've recently found an article by Dr. Andrew Lambert (a legend on 19th century warfare and Prof. of Naval Warfare at King's) on British-American tensions 1812-65.

His conclusions are accurate; they're essentially the British did not want to go to war with the US and went to great lengths to accommodate them. However, if necessary the UK was prepared to burn the US until they came to terms.

Winning with fighting: British Grand Strategy and it's application to the United States 1815-65
 
I've recently found an article by Dr. Andrew Lambert (a legend on 19th century warfare and Prof. of Naval Warfare at King's) on British-American tensions 1812-65.

His conclusions are accurate; they're essentially the British did not want to go to war with the US and went to great lengths to accommodate them. However, if necessary the UK was prepared to burn the US until they came to terms.

for some reason though, Britain balked at Polk's first proposal to set the border on the 49th... maybe some underling somewhere got ambitious?
 
I think it was due to the rival claims, the British one being longer, but after Polk agreed to yield Vancouver Island and the British considered the rate at which Americans but not British were settling the area the British decided to settle on the 49th(plus Vancouver Island).
 
Alright:
recently Ive been reading a bit about the Mexican American War and it is not entirely out of the question. But the POD has to be a few months earlier than originally posted before the war-mongering Paredes deposes Herrera in Mexico.
After Herrera deposed Santa Anna for almost causing a war over Texas being annexed, Herrera began negociating with Britian over the possibility of a hefty monetary and militrary loan to defend the Mexican territory from the Americans. In particular the Nueces strip, which was legaly part of Tamaulipas and not Texas. In exchange for the loan Mexico would morgage California to the Brits.
Herrera sent the army lead by Paredes to Tamaulipas to defend the Nueces Strip. In OTL Paredes turned around and deposed Herrera acusing him of selling California to the Brits, giving Texas to the Americans, and being unpatriotic. (Paredas after declaring war on the US will be deposed by Santa Anna and his sympathizers for being the moron and declaring war without any preparations).
Polk used the 54th parallel as a bluff to distract the British from Herrera´s proposal. By yielding to the 49th Polk assured that Britain would not side with the Mexicans. As already said he always intended for the 49th or maybe lower as long as the British stayed distracted from Herrera´s proposal.
But WI: Herrera is never deposed. If Paredes does as he was told and takes the Mexican army to Tamaulipas in case their is a war. Because the Nueces Strip is still in question and Tayor already has an army sitting in Corpus Christi a war will happen sooner or later. Furthermore the American army is already on its way to the Pacific (not only to attack Mexico in case of war but to secure Oregon) And because Herrera is in power negociations with the Brits continue. At one point the Brits agree to the loan (this is a loan not an alliance).
However once the American feet reaches the Pacific coast if the war against Mexico has not started it would need to dock somewhere ese. An American port in Oregon would be the best option. Britian gets antsy about having such a large fleet near the territories in question. Furthermore Fremont and his men have already arrived to California to start an insurection against the Mexcians. Because there is little comunication to washington. Fremont starts the insurection in Sonoma as instructed. Britain sees this as American meddling in British interests since California technicaly belongs to them until the Mexicans pay their loans.
Britain declares war on the US. Mexico (even with peacefull Herrera in power) is arogant enough to think they´ve found an ally even though Britain is acting on its own interests, declares war on the US justifying it under the pretense of defending Tamaulipas and ending the blockade in Veracruz. Paredes and his men move northwards into Texas. Polk then declares war on Mexico and trys to negociate with Britain. But lack of communication and the preassure of having the American fleet in the Pacific makes the efforts futile.
America is now at war against two countries.

What happens next and how does the war end?
 
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