WI the OAS manages to kill de Gaulle?

The Vulture

Banned
I figure it's time we try and bring a fresh perspective on an old question.

Suppose just one of the two hundred some-odd bullets fired at de Gaulle by Bastien-Thiery's men actually hits and kills him. Given the political instability of France at the time, what might have followed? Civil unrest seems likely, but would it be anywhere near the level of a putsch?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
A putsch, even with De Gaulle dead, would have been in an untenable political situation; assuming you mean the Algiers putsch that is. They'd have to contend with the fact that they have no popular legitimacy, no popular appeal, the left hates them, etc. The best it can hope for is to come out on top of a French Civil War as a repeat of the SCW; the most likely situation is that the putschists are removed in a matter of weeks to months.
 
Well, the Fifth Republic was then in an era of reforms, all managed by De Gaulle: the French Algeria cause was totally dead, due to the referendum held earlier that year, so there is a massive crackdown on the OAS. Still, as the referendum on the election of the President by universal suffrage: in the special election by the 800 great electors, the headless Gaullists wouldn't manage to chose a reliable candidate (Prime Minister Pompidou had just arrived in power, and Debré had just been dismissed and wasn't popular: he was to be terribly beaten in fall 1962), and most of the French prominent people don't feel left-wing at all, so no victory for Mendès; as of the Radical head of the Senatorial opposition to De Gaulle, Gaston Monnerville, there is no option for a coloured President of the Republic. So a classical right-wing politician is elected, such as former Prime Minister and current Minister of Finance Antoine Pinay or former Prime Minister Pierre Pfilmin. As they are members of the classical right (Pinay had begun his career under Vichy), the reforms are stopped, and the Fifth Republic becomes a replica of the Fourth Republic, even if it gives more powers to the Presidency, less all the troubles that have been settled by De Gaulle, from the economic crisis (and Pinay was the one who settled them) to the decolonization wars. Maybe French politics become, without the terrible personnality of De Gaulle, less right-wing oriented.
 
Speaking only from an institutional point of view:

De Gaulle assassinated on 22 August 1962

Gaston Monnerville, president of the Senate, becames Interim President of the Republic. A special election is organised (end of September-early October).

Will Prime Minister Georges Pompidou (who replaced Michel Debré on April 16th) be a candidate? Likely, even though he may be seen as a newcomer with no political experience. Other possible candidates for the Gaullists: former Prime minister Michel Debré and National Assembly president Jacques Chaban-Delmas.

Almost certain candidate for the centre-right: former head of government and Finance minister Antoine Pinay.

Possible candidates for the Left: François Mitterrand, and most probably Jacques Duclos for the Communist Party.

Likely winner: Pinay.
 
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Speaking only from an institutional point of view:

De Gaulle assassinated on 22 August 1962

Gaston Monnerville, president of the Senate, becames Interim President of the Republic. A special election is organised (end of September-early October).

Will Prime Minister Georges Pompidou (who replaced Michel Debré on April 16th) be a candidate? Likely, even though he may be seen as a newcomer with no political experience. Other possible candidates for the Gaullists: former Prime minister Michel Debré and National Assembly president Jacques Chaban-Delmas.

Almost certain candidate for the centre-right: former head of government and Finance minister Antoine Pinay.

Possible candidates for the Left: François Mitterrand, and most probably Jacques Duclos for the Communist Party.

Likely winner: Pinay.

Something I should have said in the above post: the special presidential election following De Gaulle's assassination would have been organized according to the electoral law of 1958. The president would have been elected not by the French citizens, but by an electoral college (composed of the members of both chambers of parliament, members of the general councils (assemblies of the départements) and the overseas assemblies, plus 80,000 delegates of the city councils). Due to the over-representation of rural France, the electoral college could only elect a conservative - Antoine Pinay is a perfect fit.

What would have then happened to the Fifth Republic is an interesting question...
 
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