WI: The Morisco rebellion of 1568-1571 succeed?

Say that the inhabitants of the Albaicin and in Murcia and Valencia join in the revolt, while the Revolt of Aragon that occurred in 1591 OTL happens twenty years earlier.

Plus, the Ottomans send significant support (thousands or more troops) directly from Constantinople, as well as directing Uluch Ali Pasha in Algiers to send additional troops from the Maghreb.

Muhammad ibn Umayyah is also a much more capable ruler and is not assassinated.

What happens now? Umayyad restoration as Ottoman vassals?
 
A more powerful and undisputed Ottoman Mediterranean fleet could help them. Perhaps due to a successful capture of Malta in 1565 (or right after Djerba in 1560), and a following Lepanto equivalent battle also ending in Ottoman victory?
 
There is little potential IMO because at this point in time there aren't enough Muslims to create a stable large enough state or a large enough rebellion to defeat the Spanish, the involvement of the Valencians Muslim would only make the Spanish more united in quelling the rebellion(by involving the Aragonese crown even more), plus the involvement of the Ottomans in the Western Mediterraenean would be seen as dangerous by the Genoese and other Italians and probably fuelling support for the Spanish on the naval front, which coincidentally was happening during this exact time with Lepanto.
You'd need a way earlier POD for that to happen, a pretty heavy Ottoman wank that'd be.
 
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Say that the inhabitants of the Albaicin and in Murcia and Valencia join in the revolt, while the Revolt of Aragon that occurred in 1591 OTL happens twenty years earlier.

Plus, the Ottomans send significant support (thousands or more troops) directly from Constantinople, as well as directing Uluch Ali Pasha in Algiers to send additional troops from the Maghreb.

Muhammad ibn Umayyah is also a much more capable ruler and is not assassinated.

What happens now? Umayyad restoration as Ottoman vassals?

Not sure how many Morisco's are left but... I'd see Spain sacrificing more in the Low Lands to stop the rebellion and repulse an Moorish-Ottoman invasion of Granada. Considering that Spain went Bankrupt several times due to the war with the Dutch this might leave a mark up until the the 18th century.

If it is successful it might be under protection of the Ottomans or Moroccans. I'd see the Ottomans as a more powerful state to preserve it, bringing the descendants of Moorish refugees from the Maghreb to repopulate the area. It is however under stronger pressure from Spain but also used as an ally against Spain by England (Great Britain) and France. Its existence is in danger however.
 
There is little potential IMO because at this point in time there aren't enough Muslims to create a stable large enough state or a large enough rebellion to defeat the Spanish, the involvement of the Valencians Muslim would only make the Spanish more united in quelling the rebellion(by involving the Aragonese crown even more), plus the involvement of the Ottomans in the Western Mediterraenean would be seen as dangerous by the Genoese and other Italians and probably fuelling support for the Spanish on the naval front, which coincidentally was happening during this exact time with Lepanto.
You'd need a way earlier POD for that to happen, a pretty heavy Ottoman wank that'd be.

There are are the Moorish descendants from Morocco and Algeria though. And Italians states don't really bother with Ottoman wars as long as they can continue to trade and earn the money they desire.

But I agree, the existence will be in danger as long as Spain remains united. An earlier Ottoman intervention, preferably by the 1480s with Mehmed II living longer or Bayezid II capturing Cem would do the trick.
 
There is little potential IMO because at this point in time there aren't enough Muslims to create a stable large enough state or a large enough rebellion to defeat the Spanish
As @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha said, there are refugee Andalusians in the Maghreb who would rally to even a semi-successful cause. Plus, the Moriscos were still the majority population (around 60%) of the ex-Emirate of Granada.
 
There are are the Moorish descendants from Morocco and Algeria though. And Italians states don't really bother with Ottoman wars as long as they can continue to trade and earn the money they desire.

But I agree, the existence will be in danger as long as Spain remains united. An earlier Ottoman intervention, preferably by the 1480s with Mehmed II living longer or Bayezid II capturing Cem would do the trick.

As @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha said, there are refugee Andalusians in the Maghreb who would rally to even a semi-successful cause. Plus, the Moriscos were still the majority population (around 60%) of the ex-Emirate of Granada.
I mean I'm not sure how refugees from 2 generations ago are going to be that much of a help short-term especially, my concern is more on the size of the already existing community which declined with the past war and rebellion and also through forceful conversion, which even if not genuine conversion it wasn't followed always by some sort of crypto-islamic presence(and there were even a couple genuine converts, or at least not directly coerced).

60% seems a bit low IMO, especially considering Valencia is Muslim in about 1/3(read from one book) of their population with Murcia not being higher, so all in all it would need to have a strong foreign support in the form of this Ottoman-wank, maybe Ottoman victory in Vienna, failure of the Spanish in the Netherlands and Italy and the invasion would work as part of a joint Ottoman-French effort, although too much French and Ottoman success might pit them against one another in Italy and the HRE, so maybe you'd have to keep things balanced.
 
I mean I'm not sure how refugees from 2 generations ago are going to be that much of a help short-term especially, my concern is more on the size of the already existing community which declined with the past war and rebellion and also through forceful conversion, which even if not genuine conversion it wasn't followed always by some sort of crypto-islamic presence(and there were even a couple genuine converts, or at least not directly coerced).

60% seems a bit low IMO, especially considering Valencia is Muslim in about 1/3(read from one book) of their population with Murcia not being higher, so all in all it would need to have a strong foreign support in the form of this Ottoman-wank, maybe Ottoman victory in Vienna, failure of the Spanish in the Netherlands and Italy and the invasion would work as part of a joint Ottoman-French effort, although too much French and Ottoman success might pit them against one another in Italy and the HRE, so maybe you'd have to keep things balanced.

Why does the major forgien support have to only be Ottoman? Morocco is rather on the assent during this period and could have sent in a substantial military force, particularly if it's in co-operation with Constantinople. Combine the two, and Al-Andalus could be restored though likely as a political client or province of Morocco (who is in a far better logistical position to support and settle the region long term), though recognizing Ottoman Caliphatel spiritual authority. Such an agreement could really help with the Trans-Islamic trade by turning the southern Med into a Muslim half-lake, and threaten Portugal-Spain to the point that their penetration into either Africa or the Indian Ocean would be broken.
 
I mean I'm not sure how refugees from 2 generations ago are going to be that much of a help short-term especially, my concern is more on the size of the already existing community which declined with the past war and rebellion and also through forceful conversion, which even if not genuine conversion it wasn't followed always by some sort of crypto-islamic presence(and there were even a couple genuine converts, or at least not directly coerced).

60% seems a bit low IMO, especially considering Valencia is Muslim in about 1/3(read from one book) of their population with Murcia not being higher, so all in all it would need to have a strong foreign support in the form of this Ottoman-wank, maybe Ottoman victory in Vienna, failure of the Spanish in the Netherlands and Italy and the invasion would work as part of a joint Ottoman-French effort, although too much French and Ottoman success might pit them against one another in Italy and the HRE, so maybe you'd have to keep things balanced.
Mosques in northern Morocco had until the end of the 19th century a black flag on their minaretes. This was to remember the expulsion. And many families still have their morisco names. So if they had the opportunity to conquer their home back then they would have done it.
 
Why does the major forgien support have to only be Ottoman? Morocco is rather on the assent during this period and could have sent in a substantial military force, particularly if it's in co-operation with Constantinople. Combine the two, and Al-Andalus could be restored though likely as a political client or province of Morocco (who is in a far better logistical position to support and settle the region long term), though recognizing Ottoman Caliphatel spiritual authority. Such an agreement could really help with the Trans-Islamic trade by turning the southern Med into a Muslim half-lake, and threaten Portugal-Spain to the point that their penetration into either Africa or the Indian Ocean would be broken.
The Moroccans failed in the 14th century even when Granada was around and during this time they aren't particularly strong on the seas, they have a quite smaller population compared to Iberia, a smaller navy and less resources overall. They were still battling the Portoguese on their territory, so during this time they don't have time for such a feat.

Mosques in northern Morocco had until the end of the 19th century a black flag on their minaretes. This was to remember the expulsion. And many families still have their morisco names. So if they had the opportunity to conquer their home back then they would have done it.
Any source on all of that?
 
The Moroccans failed in the 14th century even when Granada was around and during this time they aren't particularly strong on the seas, they have a quite smaller population compared to Iberia, a smaller navy and less resources overall. They were still battling the Portoguese on their territory, so during this time they don't have time for such a feat.


Any source on all of that?

Failure is no argument. Morocco has the manpower, so does Algeria. All they need ia now is Naval security and that would be the job of the Ottomans.
 
Failure is no argument. Morocco has the manpower, so does Algeria. All they need ia now is Naval security and that would be the job of the Ottomans.
Morocco has half the population of Castille and they are fighting the Spanish on their ground and at their peak, with so much resources to throw in their easily to supply armies(considering they are not sending them through Italy and Germany), the fact the Moroccans failed even when they had a better situation with the Marinids and an already established Muslim state in the peninsula shows that this scenario is unrealistic at best without massively changing the situation in Southern Italy and Morocco itself, which again was occupied with the Portoguese during this very time.
 
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