WI: The Mongols invade Europe a year earlier

The story that the Mongol invasion of Europe failed to reach the Atlantic because of the death of Ögedei Khan is a popular one, but I find it to be unlikely, due to the vast distances that messengers would have to travel. I'm more inclined to believe the theory that they withdrew because of unfavorable weather in 1242 that turned much of Hungary into marshland, forcing them to fall back to find more suitable pasture for their horses.

But AFAIK, the weather in Europe the previous winter wasn't so wet. What if the Mongol invasion of Europe began a year earlier for whatever reason (maybe the Russians don't put up as much resistance)?
 
The story that the Mongol invasion of Europe failed to reach the Atlantic because of the death of Ögedei Khan is a popular one, but I find it to be unlikely, due to the vast distances that messengers would have to travel. I'm more inclined to believe the theory that they withdrew because of unfavorable weather in 1242 that turned much of Hungary into marshland, forcing them to fall back to find more suitable pasture for their horses.

But AFAIK, the weather in Europe the previous winter wasn't so wet. What if the Mongol invasion of Europe began a year earlier for whatever reason (maybe the Russians don't put up as much resistance)?

Ogedei’s death was just an excuse and there was absolutely no emergency to elect the new khan: for the next 4 or 5 years Empire was ruled by Ogedei’s widow as a regent. Ogedei was important by a single reason: he was an authority forcing the quarreling Genghisid princes to keep acting together and with this authority gone nothing prevented Batu’s enemies from abandoning the enterprise from which they were not going to gain anything of substance.

Weather was not such a big deal because moving forward would obviously solve the problem with Hungarian flooding: the Mongolian scouting parties had been acting well beyond Hungary and reached Adriatic Sea.

The problem is that nobody can tell for sure what was a real goal of the Western Campaign. Formally, there were two different goals:

1st, for which Batu had a clear mandate: punish the Kipchaks and those who gives them a shelter. Hungary clearly fit the bill and operations in Poland had been necessary to secure the right flank. All Kipchak lands had been given to Jochi and his descendants as their domain. Rus, IIRC, also was explicitly mentioned (enemies, who attacked the Mongols during Jebe, Subotai raid, plus association with the Kipchaks). Beyond this, situation with who is getting what was not quite clear and neither are Batu motivations. The theories include at least: (a) being betrayed by Guiuk and his supporters, (b) not being interested because these lands would not be his, (c) being more interested in consolidation of his state (seems reasonable because he was more statesman than general), (d) being afraid of leaving behind not quite pacified Russian lands (with the leading princely family actively licking his posteriors, seems unlikely outside Russian patriotic legend). Or it can be combination of any of the above plus something else.

2nd, there was a rather vague part of Genghis testament ordering to conquer all the lands to the Last Western Sea. If taken literally, this means that most of the European rulers had officially recognize supremacy of the Great Khan. This did not mean a permanent conquest with occupation or even a direct Mongolian rule: system of the vassal rulers had been implemented in Rus, Georgia, Armenia Minor and elsewhere. In OTL messengers with such requests had been sent at least to Frederic II and the Pope. Frederic answered with a joke that he can serve as a master of the falcon hunt at Khan’s court and presumably raised some troops to protect Germany. However, he was not interested in more active actions both because their outcome would be anything but clear and because so far the Mongols had been destroying supporters of the Pope (Hungary and Poland). In OTL formal excuse for ending the campaign was “promoting” Adriatic to the Last Western Sea: its coast was reached, task accomplished.

Now, what could happen if Ogedei is still around:

1. He can accept the claim about Adriatic and sanction the end of campaign. We are back to OTL with a single possible butterfly: he can give Hungary (or at least its plain) to one of the Genghizides.

2. He may order continuation of the campaign. Task of pursuing the Kipchaks is accom0lishedvand stress is on reaching the sea. Subotai would have 2 main options for the future campaign:
2.1. Go strictly Westward across Germany all the way to the Atlantic or Baltic coast. Armies of Baidar are now the main force and those in Hungary (led by Subotai and Batu) are covering their left flank. There could be some reshuffling of the troops but covering of the left flank and communications with the base (steppes of the Black Sea - Volga) are getting problematic because there are simply not enough troops to ptotect the stretching front. Opposition could be quite strong with the resulting high losses. Plus there would be no good base for a potential multi-year campaign (no steppe regions) and the area was not too rich. IMO, there are no indications that Subotai was seriously planning this scenario while staying in Hungary.
2.2. Play scenario “while talking to the superior you should have an appearance brave and idiotic” (*) and keep doing what he was already doing: protecting right flank and advance toward Italy. Mediterranean can serve as the Last Sea just fine, the loot promising to be better, communications much more secure and opposition less strong. The natural obstacles were not too great: Subotai already fought in Caucasus. If the Mongols are looting a big chunk of the Northern and Central Italy before withdrawal, the big winner is Frederic because most of his enemies are destroyed.


(*) Quote from the official instruction written by Peter I.
 
If the Mongols are looting a big chunk of the Northern and Central Italy before withdrawal, the big winner is Frederic because most of his enemies are destroyed.

With the dual result for Europe of spurring the long-term centralization of the HRE, ie, unified Germany, while stunting or aborting the cultural and scientific rise of the Italian renaissance?
 
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