WI:The Mongols fail to conquer the Song Empire?

What if the Mongols failed to conquer the Song Empire and later defeated in Eastern Europe, what will happen, could a stable mongol state arise?
 

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What if the Mongols failed to conquer the Song Empire and later defeated in Eastern Europe, what will happen, could a stable mongol state arise?
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them. That being said any Mongolian state would fracture because Mongolian society demanded it fracture. Further, it would still be a massive state covering lands from Persia and Syria, Anatolia, India, Siberia, Northern China, and Korea. It would probably still easily be ranked in the greatest empires of history and still link east to west. But asking what would happen is anyone's guess. It could just as easily stay together as a loose federation of tribes after a few generations or it could fall apart after Ogedei died.
 
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them. That being said any Mongolian state would fracture because Mongolian society demanded it fracture. Further, it would still be a massive state covering lands from Persia and Syria, Anatolia, India, Siberia, Northern China, and Korea. It would probably still easily be ranked in the greatest empires of history and still link east to west. But asking what would happen is anyone's guess. It could just as easily stay together as a loose federation of tribes after a few generations or it could fall apart after Ogedei died.

How long could it survive?
 
But it could drift away in culture from the Northern Chinese if the Song Dynasty remains separate for long.

China has balkanized for centuries at a time (e.g. between the Han and the Sui), yet there was no "cultural drift". It's doubtful that a few nomads can impose their customs on a much larger sedentary people within the few decades the empire reigns.
 
China has balkanized for centuries at a time (e.g. between the Han and the Sui), yet there was no "cultural drift". It's doubtful that a few nomads can impose their customs on a much larger sedentary people within the few decades the empire reigns.

But can they industrialize?
 
China has balkanized for centuries at a time (e.g. between the Han and the Sui), yet there was no "cultural drift". It's doubtful that a few nomads can impose their customs on a much larger sedentary people within the few decades the empire reigns.

Mind you, my post was about the survival of a mongol kingdom up north... maybe even some territory wins...
 
Mind you, my post was about the survival of a mongol kingdom up north... maybe even some territory wins...

My two cents are that after decades of futile attempts at conquering the Southern Song (perhaps after multiple kamikaze-like incidents which save the Song army), the Mongols would give up, deciding that mountainous and humid Southern China is unsuitable for conquest and turn their attention westwards. But the longer proto-industrial Southern Song holds out, the harder it would be to hold onto the North China Plain.
 
I was actually, thinking of swapping the fates of Southern China and Japan, I think preventing the conquest of Song is kinda favorable to South East Asians like Zhuangs, Khmers, Chams, etc in some way..
 
I was actually, thinking of swapping the fates of Southern China and Japan, I think preventing the conquest of Song is kinda favorable to South East Asians like Zhuangs, Khmers, Chams, etc in some way..

That's not necessarily true. While I don't know too much about the time period and area, I'm pretty sure the Khmers and Chams suffered at the hands of the Thai and Vietnamese, and the Mongols were comparatively minor. In fact, while the Mongols did attack Champa, it wasn't until the Vietnamese invaded and conquered the Champa kingdom, about 200 years after the Mongol invasions of Indochina, that really marked the end of their civilization. And I'm pretty sure the Khmers attacked the Chams several times too. As for the Khmers, I fail to see how keeping the Song Dynasty helps them. If you wanted to keep the Khmers and Chams around and in a position of strength, removing the conquest of the Song isn't going to help.

And I'm pretty sure the Chinese absorption of the Zhuang/Dai/Yi/Tujia/etc peoples was a gradual process, and over the centuries, even if the Mongols didn't conquer the Song Dynasty, some other Chinese dynasty would probably try. Maybe even the Song might try.
 
That's not necessarily true. While I don't know too much about the time period and area, I'm pretty sure the Khmers and Chams suffered at the hands of the Thai and Vietnamese, and the Mongols were comparatively minor. In fact, while the Mongols did attack Champa, it wasn't until the Vietnamese invaded and conquered the Champa kingdom, about 200 years after the Mongol invasions of Indochina, that really marked the end of their civilization. And I'm pretty sure the Khmers attacked the Chams several times too. As for the Khmers, I fail to see how keeping the Song Dynasty helps them. If you wanted to keep the Khmers and Chams around and in a position of strength, removing the conquest of the Song isn't going to help.

And I'm pretty sure the Chinese absorption of the Zhuang/Dai/Yi/Tujia/etc peoples was a gradual process, and over the centuries, even if the Mongols didn't conquer the Song Dynasty, some other Chinese dynasty would probably try. Maybe even the Song might try.

But having Nanchao survive might help as well..
 
But having Nanchao survive might help as well..

For the indigenous people of what is now Southwestern China, I can see what you mean, though I think you would be referring to the Kingdom of Dali, which succeeded Nanzhao and was conquered by the Mongols.

As for how Dali/Nanzhao helps the Cham or Khmer succeed, I don't see it at all.
 
For the indigenous people of what is now Southwestern China, I can see what you mean, though I think you would be referring to the Kingdom of Dali, which succeeded Nanzhao and was conquered by the Mongols.

As for how Dali/Nanzhao helps the Cham or Khmer succeed, I don't see it at all.

Not exactly but it will lessen the Sinification of OTL Southern China because China has not yet conquered Yunnan, Nanchao might expand like what the Burmese and Siamese Empire did in OTL.
 
Not exactly but it will lessen the Sinification of OTL Southern China because China has not yet conquered Yunnan, It might expand like what the Burmese and Siamese Empire did in OTL.

So what you're really asking for is the survival of Dali more than the Song Dynasty then. (Though, yes, a survival of Dali would make it more likely that the Song survives, but not necessarily.)

And I've never heard about Dali being expansionist or centralized enough to do something like invading the other peoples of Southeast Asia. I know Nanzhao was more expansionist, but I don't think Dali was like that.
 
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them.

Anyone else see a problem here?

"Normally states fall to the Mongols like dominoes, but the corrupt Song took decades due to their mismanagement."

Hrm.
 
So what you're really asking for is the survival of Dali more than the Song Dynasty then. (Though, yes, a survival of Dali would make it more likely that the Song survives, but not necessarily.)

And I've never heard about Dali being expansionist or centralized enough to do something like invading the other peoples of Southeast Asia. I know Nanzhao was more expansionist, but I don't think Dali was like that.

But a conflict with the Burmese or Siamese could change that.
 
But a conflict with the Burmese or Siamese could change that.

I don't know much about the area, but I don't think the Burmese and Siamese states showed any interest in attacking Yunnan.

It seems likely to me that, if the Mongols didn't conquer Dali and Song China, the history of Southeast Asia would be afflicted by the butterfly effect. However, the Khmer and Cham did survive the Mongol attacks and still were defeated down the line. So what I'm saying again is that removing the Mongol invasions won't necessarily preserve them, since the Mongol invasions weren't what destroyed them in the first place.
 
I don't know much about the area, but I don't think the Burmese and Siamese states showed any interest in attacking Yunnan.

It seems likely to me that, if the Mongols didn't conquer Dali and Song China, the history of Southeast Asia would be afflicted by the butterfly effect. However, the Khmer and Cham did survive the Mongol attacks and still were defeated down the line. So what I'm saying again is that removing the Mongol invasions won't necessarily preserve them, since the Mongol invasions weren't what destroyed them in the first place.
But both Dai Viet and Nanchao could also be buffer states between the other South East Asian states and China.
 
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