What if the Mongols failed to conquer the Song Empire and later defeated in Eastern Europe, what will happen, could a stable mongol state arise?
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them. That being said any Mongolian state would fracture because Mongolian society demanded it fracture. Further, it would still be a massive state covering lands from Persia and Syria, Anatolia, India, Siberia, Northern China, and Korea. It would probably still easily be ranked in the greatest empires of history and still link east to west. But asking what would happen is anyone's guess. It could just as easily stay together as a loose federation of tribes after a few generations or it could fall apart after Ogedei died.What if the Mongols failed to conquer the Song Empire and later defeated in Eastern Europe, what will happen, could a stable mongol state arise?
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them. That being said any Mongolian state would fracture because Mongolian society demanded it fracture. Further, it would still be a massive state covering lands from Persia and Syria, Anatolia, India, Siberia, Northern China, and Korea. It would probably still easily be ranked in the greatest empires of history and still link east to west. But asking what would happen is anyone's guess. It could just as easily stay together as a loose federation of tribes after a few generations or it could fall apart after Ogedei died.
It is possible that the Song Dynasty keep decaying on a longer run, and if they keep focused inward like later Ming..
But it could drift away in culture from the Northern Chinese if the Song Dynasty remains separate for long.
China has balkanized for centuries at a time (e.g. between the Han and the Sui), yet there was no "cultural drift". It's doubtful that a few nomads can impose their customs on a much larger sedentary people within the few decades the empire reigns.
China has balkanized for centuries at a time (e.g. between the Han and the Sui), yet there was no "cultural drift". It's doubtful that a few nomads can impose their customs on a much larger sedentary people within the few decades the empire reigns.
Mind you, my post was about the survival of a mongol kingdom up north... maybe even some territory wins...
I was actually, thinking of swapping the fates of Southern China and Japan, I think preventing the conquest of Song is kinda favorable to South East Asians like Zhuangs, Khmers, Chams, etc in some way..
That's not necessarily true. While I don't know too much about the time period and area, I'm pretty sure the Khmers and Chams suffered at the hands of the Thai and Vietnamese, and the Mongols were comparatively minor. In fact, while the Mongols did attack Champa, it wasn't until the Vietnamese invaded and conquered the Champa kingdom, about 200 years after the Mongol invasions of Indochina, that really marked the end of their civilization. And I'm pretty sure the Khmers attacked the Chams several times too. As for the Khmers, I fail to see how keeping the Song Dynasty helps them. If you wanted to keep the Khmers and Chams around and in a position of strength, removing the conquest of the Song isn't going to help.
And I'm pretty sure the Chinese absorption of the Zhuang/Dai/Yi/Tujia/etc peoples was a gradual process, and over the centuries, even if the Mongols didn't conquer the Song Dynasty, some other Chinese dynasty would probably try. Maybe even the Song might try.
But having Nanchao survive might help as well..
For the indigenous people of what is now Southwestern China, I can see what you mean, though I think you would be referring to the Kingdom of Dali, which succeeded Nanzhao and was conquered by the Mongols.
As for how Dali/Nanzhao helps the Cham or Khmer succeed, I don't see it at all.
Not exactly but it will lessen the Sinification of OTL Southern China because China has not yet conquered Yunnan, It might expand like what the Burmese and Siamese Empire did in OTL.
The Mongols had already taken Northern China from the Jurchens so it is possible that they simply replace the Jurchens and form a sort of balance of power with China. The Song Dynasty only fell because of continuous mismanagement and corruption. The Mongolians normally conquered countries and states in months and years at the most. China took decades and the Song court practically handed it to them.
So what you're really asking for is the survival of Dali more than the Song Dynasty then. (Though, yes, a survival of Dali would make it more likely that the Song survives, but not necessarily.)
And I've never heard about Dali being expansionist or centralized enough to do something like invading the other peoples of Southeast Asia. I know Nanzhao was more expansionist, but I don't think Dali was like that.
But a conflict with the Burmese or Siamese could change that.
But both Dai Viet and Nanchao could also be buffer states between the other South East Asian states and China.I don't know much about the area, but I don't think the Burmese and Siamese states showed any interest in attacking Yunnan.
It seems likely to me that, if the Mongols didn't conquer Dali and Song China, the history of Southeast Asia would be afflicted by the butterfly effect. However, the Khmer and Cham did survive the Mongol attacks and still were defeated down the line. So what I'm saying again is that removing the Mongol invasions won't necessarily preserve them, since the Mongol invasions weren't what destroyed them in the first place.