I'm not sure how accurate the claim that it was a typhoon (actually two typhoons) that prevented the Mongol conquest of Japan is, but it seems no typhoon is a good POD and what would really have happened if the Mongols had conquered Japan?
WI the Mongols conquer Japan
- Thread starter Galba Otho Vitelius
- Start date
Alarico Rodríguez
Banned
No typhoon seems somewhat ASB territory, but nevertheless, it wasn't just the typhoons. The Japanese had very good coastal defences and in the second invasion even routed a Mongol force that managed to get through with their own horse archers, all right before the typhoon struck. They also raided the Mongol ships. The reason why the Mongols had so much trouble was that the Japanese had prepared themselves for a Chinese invasion after the Battle of Baekje with the Taiko reforms, basically creating a sea wall in Kyushu and leaving a permanent garrison in its coast. I still think that the Mongols could have been successful had they not invaded with so many ships. A comparable case is the invasion of Indonesia, which was more successful as the Mongols were able to actually advance very inland there, albeit it still ultimately failed. Have Kublai Khan plan the invasion of Japan more carefully, advance more slowly rather than the quick conquest he was going for, and I see the Mongols conquering Japan.
Now, as to what happens to Japan, I'm not so sure. Japan most likely remains a feudal vassal of China even after the Ming uprising that dethrones the Yuan and becomes independent. A positive would be the introduction of gunpowder weaponry much earlier, though, but that would be offset by them being subordinate to the Chinese. At the same time, it may foment a more naval direction for the Chinese, eventually moving onto the Americas and also possibly to explore Oceania, as a more permanent navy would be there ensuring Japanese loyalty. The Japanese could still eventually break (a relationship comparable to England and France), and arguably even come to rule significant parts of mainland China in some future war thanks to the developing feudal relations.
Now, as to what happens to Japan, I'm not so sure. Japan most likely remains a feudal vassal of China even after the Ming uprising that dethrones the Yuan and becomes independent. A positive would be the introduction of gunpowder weaponry much earlier, though, but that would be offset by them being subordinate to the Chinese. At the same time, it may foment a more naval direction for the Chinese, eventually moving onto the Americas and also possibly to explore Oceania, as a more permanent navy would be there ensuring Japanese loyalty. The Japanese could still eventually break (a relationship comparable to England and France), and arguably even come to rule significant parts of mainland China in some future war thanks to the developing feudal relations.
The only multi-sided source mentioning the typhoon is during the second invasion of 1281, the Sino-Korean sources mentions the invading force withdrawing on their own in 1274.
Assuming a better prepared Kublai goes hard on 1274 seems the best bet, that said it is unlikely the Mongols would walk all the way to Kyoto, let alone places like Kamakura and Tohoku, Japan becomes a vassal state like Goreyo, how Japan is going to be governed is something else, would the Mongols deal with the Court in Kyoto or the bakufu in Kamakura? If so how does the court at Khanbaliq manage the vassalage, a Mongol shogun or shikken? A Mongol-Fujiwara kampaku? Several questions.
Assuming a better prepared Kublai goes hard on 1274 seems the best bet, that said it is unlikely the Mongols would walk all the way to Kyoto, let alone places like Kamakura and Tohoku, Japan becomes a vassal state like Goreyo, how Japan is going to be governed is something else, would the Mongols deal with the Court in Kyoto or the bakufu in Kamakura? If so how does the court at Khanbaliq manage the vassalage, a Mongol shogun or shikken? A Mongol-Fujiwara kampaku? Several questions.
Kaze
Banned
It is likely the Emperor would end up nothing more than "chief miko"
As for the Shogun -
option 1. one head shorter
option 2. vice-royalty
option 3. patiently wait until the Yuan Dynasty collapse. It was going to happen eventually - as soon as the Yuan collapsed, the Shogun (or his heirs) would go for independence.
option 4. resistance effort lead by a shogun / or shogun pretender
option 5. all of the above
As for the Shogun -
option 1. one head shorter
option 2. vice-royalty
option 3. patiently wait until the Yuan Dynasty collapse. It was going to happen eventually - as soon as the Yuan collapsed, the Shogun (or his heirs) would go for independence.
option 4. resistance effort lead by a shogun / or shogun pretender
option 5. all of the above
IIRC at the time Kamakura Japan had the Emperor (a figurehead like during most of Japanese history), the shogun (ostensible head of government), and then the shikken (de facto head of government).
So safe to say Hojo Tokimune likely won't be as famous TTL.
So safe to say Hojo Tokimune likely won't be as famous TTL.
This, Can be a lot of Shogun in the meanwhile.
The Emperor have real power at that time but yeah is possible the Emperor/imperial/yamato line to end from nothing, to extint to chief Miko depending how the mongol conquest goes on
...Why? The mongols didn't exterminate the Kim house of Goreyo, why go full EXTERMINATE on Japan? Particularly since it is doubtful the Japanese campaign is going to that much more successful than the Korean one.
I think "trampled by horses" would be more appropriate in describing the fate of a Shogun executed by the Mongols.
Kaze
Banned
I was talking about what happens during the "trampled by horses" - the game of polo.
According to legend, the game of polo was invented somewhere between India and Pakistan when a horseman took the butt of his spear to the head of an enemy and passed it between two trees. Thus, the game began.
There are accounts of Mongols playing polo.... so...