The hit would have taken place in 1935.
Here is the background:
http://www.historynet.com/thomas-e-dewey-defeats-dutch-schultz.htm
Here is the background:
http://www.historynet.com/thomas-e-dewey-defeats-dutch-schultz.htm
Willkie was dead in 1944.
If they'd killed Dewey then as they feared New York would've initiated a ferocious crackdown on the mob. Killing Dewey would've done more harm than good to the mafia, which is why they didn't do it.
Down the line, in US politics I think without Dewey Wendell Willkie is renominated by the GOP in 1944 but he loses a second time. Stassen is the likely nominee in 1948, and if he campaigns hard against Truman then he will probably win.
That's why Luciano had Dutch Schultz killed before he could carry it out, which is one of the few good things he did...