If the Magyars are crushed that point, The German colonization of Austria will spread into the Hungarian plains, we may see a bigger surviving Slovak population in Hungary[1], and maybe the Hungarian enclave in Transylvania will survive.I wonder if the Magyars would survive as an ethnic group without their early success, if not would they become Slav or German or something else even? Can the East Frankish kingdom incorporate Pannonia in its entirety? Could their defeated open up Pannonia for other nomadic groups?
Mhh, would they still be West Slavs linguistically? I imagine their more direct connection to Ukraine and Serbia-Bulgaria would distinguish them from Czech.If the Magyars are crushed that point, The German colonization of Austria will spread into the Hungarian plains, we may see a bigger surviving Slovak population in Hungary[1], and maybe the Hungarian enclave in Transylvania will survive.
[1] In fact we may see Slovakia colonized by the Germans from Silesia and Slovaks surviving in southeastern Slovakia and eastern Hungary.
Mhh, would they still be West Slavs linguistically? I imagine their more direct connection to Ukraine and Serbia-Bulgaria would distinguish them from Czech.
Although this kinda begs the question on whether or not West Slavs would still be a thing long term as well, if for example the victory creates a chain-reaction that ends with a earlier expansion of the HRE in modern East Germany, Bohemia and Poland, it could mean strong Germanization on that front as well.
Bohemia was devasted by 910 with the collapse of Great Moravia, given the way they were incorporated in the HRE and their special status as kingdom and various political events, I'd say a earlier and different takeover would play a big role in how the region would ethnically and linguistically develop.I don't think this would lead German settlement to do better in Bohemia, the colonization of the east was purely political/religious and practical, the east was lightly populated and Germans was a way to develop and Christianise these region, Bohemia was already pretty developed and became Christian early,as such there's no need to colonies it. Slovakia was far less developed and needed German expertise, which is why Germansettlers would be invited to settle there.
As for Slovak, I would expect it to diverge more from Czech, but I see little reason for it to be one member of another branch of Slavic.
At this point it's too early to call them Slovaks or even west slavs. Common Slavic broke up around 1000 AD. This PoD could possibly end up bumping the Pannonian Slavs into the South Slavic camp.we may see a bigger surviving Slovak population in Hungary
Like you said Charlemagne did win against the Avars, why is it so strange for East Franks to manage to do the same? I don't want to seem harsh, but it becomes kinda frustrating how IOTL developments are taken as some sort of determined thing when after all we did see repeated victories against those supposedly unbeatable foes in the very time period we speak of anyway, as early as 913 for example.I know for a WI we're supposed to assume the POD without necessarily interrogating how it happened, but this is an exceptionally difficult outcome for me to imagine. The Franks got absolutely stomped on by the Magyars in the first decade of the 10th century. It wasn't due to mere tactical errors that might be reversed with a fortuitous battle POD - the Franks simply did not know how to deal with an enemy of this kind, as apparently there wasn't much institutional memory of Charlemagne's campaigns against the Avars. You could write a definitive book entitled "How Not to Fight Nomadic Armies" and base it entirely on Frankish battles with the Magyars between 899 and the 920s. The Germans didn't really get their shit together until Riade in 933.
Decisively crushed in the various battles I mean, also I'm not sure how a 13th century battle is important for this time period?(you meant Lechfeld?)Nevertheless, if the Magyars do somehow lose, what does "decisively crushed" mean in this context? A single lost battle, or an actual conquest of Pannonia and the disintegration of Magyar identity, Avar-style? Even the famous Battle of Marchfeld didn't succeed in destroying them as a polity and a military force (even if it did end their raids), and the Germans proved ultimately unable to subjugate the Hungarian state (see Conrad II's invasion, in which the Magyars used classic scorched earth tactics to render his progress impossible).
I guess, but still the effects it would have on Germany would be tremendous I'd say and France would be also spared from the bulk of it as well, at least the Northern part.Moreover, even if the Magyars are prevented from attacking Germany, they did a lot of profitable work raiding Italy and the Balkans. So long as Italy remains a dysfunctional mess, it's quite possible for the Magyars to bypass Germany entirely and still raid juicy targets in France, Burgundy, and even Spain.
Like you said Charlemagne did win against the Avars, why is it so strange for East Franks to manage to do the same? I don't want to seem harsh, but it becomes kinda frustrating how IOTL developments are taken as some sort of determined thing when after all we did see repeated victories against those supposedly unbeatable foes in the very time period we speak of anyway, as early as 913 for example.
Decisively crushed in the various battles I mean, also I'm not sure how a 13th century battle is important for this time period?(you meant Lechfeld?)
I guess, but still the effects it would have on Germany would be tremendous I'd say and France would be also spared from the bulk of it as well, at least the Northern part.
Considering the relative vicinity, temporal and territorial, of all those engagements I'd imagine a good general that doesn't indeed fall for their traps and sets an early precedent on how to deal with their tactics could have a snowball effect.I don't think it's impossible for the Magyars to lose a battle in this time frame. They could easily do that, the most likely scenario being what went down at the Inn in 913 (the Germans fall upon them while they are returning to Pannonia, laden down with booty). In most engagements of this period, however, the Franks demonstrated themselves to be severely outmatched. They fell repeatedly for the most basic tricks straight out of the nomadic playbook, charging after feigned retreats over and over again.
I presume that what you're asking for is more than merely one lost engagement for the Magyars, because the Magyars were clearly able to lose a raiding force every now and then and not only recover from it but go back to raiding not long thereafter. Even after winning such a signal battle as Riade and learning a lot of important lessons about fighting the Magyars (like "don't charge after feigned retreats") it still took the Germans more then 20 years to fully pacify them. What you're talking about is a repeated, decisive string of Frankish victories, sufficient to quash the Magyar threat once and for all within the first decade of their arrival, when all evidence suggests that the Franks were clearly not their equals and in those early years could win an engagement only under particularly favorable circumstances. This seems extremely unlikely to me, unless we're considering a pre-900 POD that results in the (East) Franks being a significantly more capable military force by the time the Magyars show up.
Yes, Lechfeld. Typo!
Oh, no doubt. I certainly agree with that. What happens to Germany and France, however, depends even more on Carolingian dynastic politics than it does on whatever the Magyars are doing. Does Louis the Child still die? Does Conrad I still become king? Who is the king that manages to defeat the Magyars in this POD, Louis? Conrad? Someone else?
Depending on how things shake up dynastically, if Germany/East Francia were to be Magyar-free by 910 you might well see a German conquest of Italy far earlier than it happened IOTL. Italy under Berengar and his successors/rivals was a basketcase, and if the East Francian king is strong enough to stop the Magyar invasion dead in its tracks then he's definitely strong enough to topple Berengar and accomplish what Arnulf of Carinthia almost managed in 896.
Considering the relative vicinity, temporal and territorial, of all those engagements I'd imagine a good general that doesn't indeed fall for their traps and sets an early precedent on how to deal with their tactics could have a snowball effect.
Well I was indeed thinking of a pre-900 POD(related to other stuff going on in England and elsewhere), I was thinking of the predecessor of Louis the Child(Arnulf something something) living longer and have a better succession, with him possibly dying 2 decades later after the Magyar threat had been subdued, allowing to have a good aged successor.
Something which good generalship can provide as well.Generalship is all well and good, but training and experience can't be acquired overnight, and in any case the ultimate German victory over the Magyars was more strategic than tactical.
Fortifications against the Magyars were built as early as 900, the fact 3 important battles were lost one after the other and after that a dynasty shift happened I'd argue that were the first engagement(s) a victory for the Franks and the Carolingians kept on ruling, we would see a faster adoption of anti-raiding and anti-cavalry tactics and even without the Magyars can't simply leave unscathed if thousands of their soldiers die.There's no reason the Carolingians can't do this, but the point is that they can't do it immediately.
Considering the loss of 3 battles was the reason why Germany was open to full raiding, I'd argue that those encounters were vital. The Magyars don't have infinite amount of resources and people willing to throw themselves against what would seem to them as a risky target.It's not simply a matter of having a really smart general or a particularly lucky encounter
Which was managed in relative short time OTL, depending on the territory(some territories were safe already by 930s)- it's an adaptive process of encountering a new threat, managing the disruption caused by that threat, innovating methods of dealing with the threat, and implementing those methods, which requires not only clever commanders but the laborious task of building, training, and organizing.
Like I said, the WI is only about the Franks winning those first engagements(with a previous POD that allows for a better king to be in power during the time), the WI isn't that the Magyars would be physically unable to raid Germany by 910, only that they lose those key engagements, which would probably deter open full blown Hungarian raids in the next decade, probably incentivizing them to fight East with Pechenegs and the Bulgars.I concede that this process could, given more favorable political circumstances, be accomplished prior to 955. What I doubt is that it could have been accomplished prior to 910, after only a scant few years of Hungarian raiding..