WI the MacKay-Orchard deal never happened?

In 2003, Peter MacKay made a deal with David Orchard to become leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. MacKay promised, in writing, not to merge with the Canadian Alliance. Several months later, MacKay reneged.

What might have happened had Orchard not made the deal?

Frex, it seems likely Jim Prentice would have become Tory leader, & possibly PM. It seems virtually certain Stephen Harper would not have become PM...

For the record, I'm not a political junkie, so I'm offering this one for those who are. This post will (probably) be my sole contribution.;)
 
I'm actually not sure this changes much.

First: Even without an explicit deal, Orchard's supporters will almost certainly break for MacKay. Orchard, as we know, was opposed to any sort of merger or co-operation with the Alliance, so it's hard to see any sort of deal reached with Prentice— who was running on an explicit Unite the Right platform. They won't be enthused by MacKay's ambiguous position, but ambiguity is better than nothing. MacKay's victory will come without a cloud of confusion and uncertainty, so his leadership is probably more stable and less controversial, but ultimately he pursues a merger all the same. If, by some chance, Prentice wins instead… well, like I said, he was the Unite the Right candidate. So he goes ahead and pursues a leadership. Same result.

Second: no matter who wins, the Conservative leadership is still Harper's. Prentice would surely run against him (as leader, he wouldn't face the same fundraising troubles that forced him out IOTL), but I can't imagine he'd a terribly tough opponent; Harper is still leader of the larger party and with experience under his belt, while Prentice is— at this point— a political newbie (he had never even won public office at this point IOTL).

I imagine the PC-CA merger will happen a few months ahead of schedule— MacKay would likely consider it sooner, and Prentice wouldn't wait at all— but I don't see that actually having any major ripples.
 
Top