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If Gladstone died during his second premiership, say from a heart attack in 1883, would a future Liberal government introduce a Home Rule Bill? That would depend on Gladstone's successor as Prime Minister. The three most likely men would be Hugh Childers, the Chancellor of the Exchequer; William Harcourt, the Home Secretary; and the Marquess of Hartington, the Secretary of State for War. He had served as leader of the Liberal Party in the House of Commons from 1875 to 1880. I think it is unlikely that Earl Granville, the Foreign Secretary would become Prime Minister, while Joseph Chamberlain, the President of the Board of Trade, was too radical.

Childers was one of the few Liberals who adopted the policy of Irish Home Rule before Gladstone's conversion in 1886. Harcourt did not leave the Liberal Party over Home Rule, so he did not oppose it. But he was not a convinced Home Ruler like Gladstone. Hartington was opposed to Home Rule and did not serve in Gladstone's third government and was the first leader of the Liberal Unionist Party.

If Childers was Prime Minister after a general election in 1885, there would probably be an Irish Home Rule Bill, but it would be defeated in the House of Commons, and the Liberal Unionist split would still happen. If Harcourt was Prime Minister there would probably not be a Home Rule Bill, and definitely not if Hartington was.


[1] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Childers, section headed Home Secretary.
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