WI: The LibDems win the Hodge Hill by-election?

Callan

Callan

Meadow said:
Does that happen IRL though? In Britain? In this day and age?
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There's an anecdote in The End of the Party that all of Blair's loyalist were personally thanking Bryne for basically "saving" Blair's position, but I'm not sure if Blair would go over that. I can see something like a loss like that denting his confidence even further and making quitting in 2004 even more attractive, maybe.
 
iainbhx

iainbhx

Meadow

Meadow

Daltonia said:
There's an anecdote in The End of the Party that all of Blair's loyalist were personally thanking Bryne for basically "saving" Blair's position, but I'm not sure if Blair would go over that. I can see something like a loss like that denting his confidence even further and making quitting in 2004 even more attractive, maybe.
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That I can see. It's a definite POD in a general 'things build up and Blair goes' TL, but I can't see it doing it on its own if everything else is OTL.
 

stodge

Impact on Others..

A double by-election success (the LDs won Leicester South on the same day) would have been a huge boost for Charles Kennedy and might have seen the LD poll numbers move back into the upper 20s.

The Party goes to Conference on a high and in a positive mood for the upcoming election while neither Labour nor the Conservatives under Howard are in such good shape.

IF Blair goes, it seems unlikely Brown will do a volte-face on Iraq for example and the question then becomes whether he would even have a majority in the election ?
 

SlideAway

If Blair steps down in '04 then Brown takes over and if he still calls an election for 2005, he probably wins a somewhat larger majority - something in the 80 seat range. Those more knowledgeable about British politics can say what policy changes this might have brought about compared to OTL. Not sure what this changes electorally beyond that, although a more popular Labour Party might keep the SNP from winning in Holyrood in '07, with big knock-on effects there. SNP might well win in 2011, but a referendum might have been delayed a decade and you wouldn't have had this year's yellow surge.
 

Look More Closely Later

???

spookyscaryskeletons said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_Hodge_Hill_by-election,_2004

Liam Byrne only won by 463 votes. Let's say a few hundred votes shift and the Liberal Democrat candidate wins. IMO, the loss of two by elections in one day, coupled with a drubbing in the Euro/Locals would've seen Blair go.
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The idea of Tony Blair voluntarily relinquishing power strikes me as Alien Space Bat! :D

I don't see Tony Blair going, unless his own party forces him out, and I'm not sure that even losing a second by-election in one day would have convinced them to give him the heave-ho in 2004.

Don't forget, Peter Mandelson is still in the country in the summer of 2004, and thus available to help Tony quell any possible mutiny. :eek:
 
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