...bump...
I listed those particular events above to explore potential knock-ons of a larger German colonial empire:
> > 1895 - the Triple Intervention against Japan (Russia, Germany and France
> > against Japan)
So, are the Germans and French both still likely to oppose Japan in this scenario and back Russian demands? It seems that Germany, with more on its colonial plate, and wary of conflict with Britain in the Niger area and Borneo, might hesitate to get involved in something Britain might not like. In the meantime, if Russia has hesitated to escalate pressure on Germany to back up France in Africa, perhaps France will be disinclined to do Russia any favors in the Far East. That would leave the situation after Shimonoseki a bilateral Russo-Japanese dispute. Russia might not try to contest Japan in this case. Or if they did Japan might not back down. Or, unilateral Russian threat might work on Japan in this time period.
The range of options runs from Germany not participating, to Germany possibly participating in a bigger way in order to get Taiwan as Lord Kalvert one proposed.
> > 1896 - the Jameson Raid and the Kruger Telegram
Will the Germans congratulate Kruger, or will they be more careful given that they have built up more tension with the French in west-central Africa? And they have perhaps had some friction with Britain in the borderlands north of Nigeria. Conceivably the Kaiser, or at least his Ministers, might want to be more sensitive to British feelings. Or, if the Germans still congratulate Kruger, do the British turn more sharply against Germany earlier (in part as a consequence of rubbing shoulders more closely with the UK in Africa and the Indies).
> > 1897-1898 - the German seizure of Qingdao in Shandong province (followed
> > by other powers grabbing concessions)
Perhaps Germany still takes the same actions as in OTL, or they feel they have enough potential bases in East Asia with their additional territory in parts of the East Indies.
> > 1898 - Diederichs versus Dewey, verbal confrontation and posturing between
> > the Germans and Americans in Manila Bay
The Germans might not even bother, unless they are still fishing for a Far East port, and what they've gained in the East Indies (mainly in Borneo and Celebes) doesn't give them a useful base.
> > 1898-1899 - German purchase of Spanish Micronesia (except Guam) in the
> > aftermath of Spain's defeat in the Spanish- American War
Essentially the same deal here - might the Americans claim more of the Marianas like Saipan, if Germany is not interested.
> > 1898 - The Anglo-French Fashoda incident in Sudan, Kitchener's conquest of
> > the Mahdi in Sudan
The situation in the the Sahel region, known as "the Sudan" during that time, is going to be altered very much by German expansion into Chad and Niger. This is going to block off French expansion on the east-west axis coming from Senegal, Mauritania and Mali, so that the Germans will be a buffer between the French and British west of the Nile.
So, the Fashoda incident may not happen at all, and British-French tensions may not get as high over their cross-cutting avenues of advance in Africa.
On the other hand, the French can still expand out of Gabon and north Congo, into the Central African Republic and even south Sudan, in a quest to link up with Abyssinia and Djibouti, for a more southerly French west-to-east route. In fact Marchand in OTL did start in Gabon, so, a "Fashoda" style incident might still happen, possibly in addition to some stand-off between Germany and Britain in the Sahara in which, I would presume, Germany would back down to avoid the chance of war.
>
> > 1899-1902 - The Boer War and surge of anti-British feeling on the
> > continent
Do the Germans still try to negotiate partition of Portuguese colonies (which was a measure Britain took to "buy-off" Germany)? Do the Germans restrain their pro-Boer press more? Does Britain come to see Germany in Africa as a bigger threat that they need to fight along with the Boers? If there is no Anglo-French stand-off at Fashoda and humiliation of France, might the French be less pro-Boer and anti-British during the war?
>
> > 1904 -1905, a pro-Russian posture during Russo-Japanese War and support
> > for Russian re-coaling. The offer of the treaty of Bjorko.
Here what I'm wondering is if Germany, with greater colonial territories at stake, is more hesitant to do something pro-Russian, and therefore unpopular with Britain at the time.
>
> > 1905-1906, the first Morrocco Crisis, and Algeciras conference.
>
this might be altered as a knock-on if there is no Entente Cordiale, or if the Germans and French end up making a separate agreement on Morrocco, possibly before 1905, as part of managing their rivalry in the Niger river basin.
On the other hand, if these events of the next ten years aren't changed significantly as a knock-on effect, because the extra German colonies are so remote and peripheral to European politics, we could go to the other extreme and suppose everything goes the same up to WWI, at which point, the partitioning of the German Empire may be a little longer and messier, and have different players (Australia, Japan, France, Britain, Italy) getting different pieces of the strudel.