WI: the Japanese DoW is delivered on time

OTL the Japanese intended to declare war on the US just hours before the Pearl Harbor attack but due to some technical problems this did not happen.

What impact would there be if the Japanese DoW had been delivered on time as planned?
 
The Japanese Government never intended to give the DoW on time. Yamamoto did though. The American code breakers had already decyphered the document before the Japanese ambassador had chane to deliver it. So in a way it was on time.

If it did arrive on time by the ambassador, i don't think it would change much of the war. It took the Americans a while to get the message of war across the Pacific anyway.
 
Actually the final section of the document was not decoded before the PH attack as it was sent at the last minute, which is why the Japanese ambassador did not get it decoded in time to deliver the "ultimatum" before the attack started. In any case, had the ultimatum been delivered say 30 minutes before the attack as planned, it would have made no difference - PH could not have been alerted, and as it was obvious the attack was enroute while the Japanese will still "talking peace" outrage would have been the same, in spite any of potential "legality".
 
Not surprisingly there have been very few wars that have been announced before they began.

Untrue, the vast majority of wars have been preceded by a declaration and a long period of negotiation and dispute. WW2 was unique in the respect that countries (Mostly the Axis) adopted a new doctrine of gaining strategic surprise in the initial period of war.
 
The 14th Part was not a declaration of war, tho it's commonly called one. All it did was break of negotiations.
 
The 14th Part was not a declaration of war, tho it's commonly called one. All it did was break of negotiations.

True, all it would have done if it was received maybe aday earlier was put the Americans on alert but not mak them go to war immediately.

In any case, they didn't know the Kido Butai was at Hawaii and attacks on Guam, Hong Kong and Philippines had already started.
 
In any case, had the ultimatum been delivered say 30 minutes before the attack as planned, it would have made no difference - PH could not have been alerted
Really? Were radio transmitters not powerful enough? It wouldn't have been long enough to (say) call up off-base soldiers, but couldn't the message have at least been gotten to Pearl Harbor?
 
Really? Were radio transmitters not powerful enough? It wouldn't have been long enough to (say) call up off-base soldiers, but couldn't the message have at least been gotten to Pearl Harbor?

When the actual message was translated by American codebreakers, an alert to Hawaii had to be sent by Western Union telegraph, because of atmosphere conditions.

Because of a comedy of errors (bad handwriting, not paying for priority transmission, etc.) the message didn't arrive at Pearl until after the first wave had finished.
 
For the sake of arguement lets say that the warning is such that there is just enough time to scramble the fleet out of pearl harbor into some manner of formation, spread planes out of close clusters on the airfields and launch CAP.
 
Untrue, the vast majority of wars have been preceded by a declaration and a long period of negotiation and dispute. WW2 was unique in the respect that countries (Mostly the Axis) adopted a new doctrine of gaining strategic surprise in the initial period of war.

Probably the smartest way to start a war. Never made much sense to me to basically announce you're coming to kick the door in.

When the actual message was translated by American codebreakers, an alert to Hawaii had to be sent by Western Union telegraph, because of atmosphere conditions.

Because of a comedy of errors (bad handwriting, not paying for priority transmission, etc.) the message didn't arrive at Pearl until after the first wave had finished.

I'd want to see the look on the guy's face at Pearl recieving that message.

Captain: "Alright, I want more fighters in the air now and get the women and children..."

Sailor: "Captain! Priority message from Washington."

Captain: *grabs note*

ATTENTION JAPANESE ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOR IMMINENT *STOP*

*Looks outside at burning everything*

Captain: :noexpression: "Join the Navy they said..."
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
For the sake of arguement lets say that the warning is such that there is just enough time to scramble the fleet out of pearl harbor into some manner of formation, spread planes out of close clusters on the airfields and launch CAP.

This might have actually made things worse for the Americans. The fact that the battleships were sunk inside Pearl Harbor made it possible to raise them and return them to service. If the fleet sorties out and meets the IJN in a major fleet action, any ships sunk are going to the deep, deep bottom.
 
Probably the smartest way to start a war. Never made much sense to me to basically announce you're coming to kick the door in.



I'd want to see the look on the guy's face at Pearl recieving that message.

Captain: "Alright, I want more fighters in the air now and get the women and children..."

Sailor: "Captain! Priority message from Washington."

Captain: *grabs note*

ATTENTION JAPANESE ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOR IMMINENT *STOP*

*Looks outside at burning everything*

Captain: :noexpression: "Join the Navy they said..."

Now imagine that the delivery boy from Western Union who just delivered the telegram is Japanese. (The scene in "Tora, Tora, Tora" shows it.)
 
Probably the smartest way to start a war. Never made much sense to me to basically announce you're coming to kick the door in.

War isn't an act entirely seperate from diplomacy and world opinion. No one trusts a nation that attacks it's neighbors out of the blue with no warning. Diplomatic nicety for centuries has revolved around utilizing war as a last result to negatiations. Further, in most states a surprise attack makes it easier to present the attacker as a villain. This in turn makes it impossible for the attacker to get foreign backing.

If you're a pure evil state like Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan, committed to wars of exploitation, genocide, and conquest, such things aren't as necessary. But for most states throughout history, even the worst (The Mongols, for instance), it did matter.
 
I don't think it would have mattered much. It would have been what? A hour or two notice that war was declared. A fleet can't sail across the Pacific that fast, which means it was already on its way with intent to attack.

Now if war was declared before the Japanese fleet set to sea, that might be different....
 
For the sake of arguement lets say that the warning is such that there is just enough time to scramble the fleet out of pearl harbor into some manner of formation, spread planes out of close clusters on the airfields and launch CAP.

All but the Nevada had 'cold boilers'. That is only one boiler was operating to run the ships electric generator and make hot water for the mess, laundry, and showers. From the minimal power condition it took the BB 2-4 hours to get up enough steam pressure to get under way. The Nevada had fired up a second boiler early that morning so the other in use could be shut down for maintinance. As luck has it both boilers were still operating when the attack started.

There were enough pilots and ground crew present at their quarters on the airfields to get at least fifty fighters aloft in a hour. The trick would be ineffective control. Although a centralized control station linked to the radar stations existed on paper traning had just started & it was unlikely to have functioned. The same condition existed on Luzon and the air defense command and control there collapsed into ineffectiveness before the Japanese attacked Clark Field. The pilots on CAP over Oahu would have had to figure it out for themselves with little or no help from a CP.
 
Don't forget it's a Sunday, a lot of men partied the night before and were in no condition to fight. And that many of the fighters had dry tanks and no ammo to protect them from sabotage.
 
OTL the Japanese intended to declare war on the US just hours before the Pearl Harbor attack but due to some technical problems this did not happen.

What impact would there be if the Japanese DoW had been delivered on time as planned?

I don't think it makes any difference to Kimmel and Short if the DOW arrives on time and they receive let's say 1 hr notice of the initiation of hostilities. I think neither were anticipating an attack on pearl...a DOW wouldn't change that. They'd still be thinking the initial stroke would be in the Phillipines and South east asia.

As far as the countries attitude...ie dirty rotten sneaky Japs. Doesn't change that perception much and the battlefleet is still a smoking ruin.

Not much changes except the historical record which reflects a little better on Japan..
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
Hmm... Well assuming that a DoW was declared with enough warning to even matter in the short term, here's my take on it:


To Japan the war against America was purely based on economics: Japan needed American Oil, America was refusing to give them said Oil, So Japan attacked America.

So if you have Japan actually declare war then the perception in America will be that this will be a war over economics. While there would be anger, it wouldn't reach the fever-pitch it did OTL.

If you have Kimmel get his head out of his ass and realize that Pearl was the target, you could have a much less one-sided battle. This may butterfly away Hitler's DoW.
 
Dirk_Pitt said:
If you have Kimmel get his head out of his ass and realize that Pearl was the target
The same Kimmel who wasn't getting Ultra? The same Kimmel who no more guessed Pearl was a target than the Intel weenies in DC who had Purple & J-19 & still didn't guess? The same Kimmel who wan't actually responsible for the defense of the damn base?
Dirk_Pitt said:
you could have a much less one-sided battle
Yes, had Kimmel sortied, it could have been a total damn massacre.:eek::rolleyes:

Unless, until, you have Short being less a nitwit, it's going to turn out exactly as OTL.
 
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