WI: The Japanese annexed Northern Karafuto in their intervention in Siberia?

What if once it became clear that the Soviets are going to win the Russian civil war, the Japanese just annexed the rest of Karafuto? What impact would this have on history? I have often read on here that the Japanese felt betrayed that they weren't allowed to annex the whole island back in the Russo-Japanese war and that it was this what brought them on the expansionist path. Would the Japanese still partake in WW2 on the Axis side? If yes, how does Japan owning the resource rich northern half affect the war? According to the CIA, northern Sakhalin produced 1,750,000 tons (almost 12mil barrel) of oil in the 1941-45 period. Will the Japanese use that oil to mechanize their army? Assuming WW2 plays out much like IOTL, what would happen to Karafuto once Japan loses? IOTL the Americans objected the Soviet invasion of Karafuto, will we see more effort to try to not let the Soviets invade it? Could Karafuto be part of modern day Japan?
 

Attachments

  • oil production.PNG
    oil production.PNG
    123.5 KB · Views: 129

nbcman

Donor
12 million barrels of oil is nothing. Japan imported 106 Mbd (thousand barrels per day) in 1938 or 38.7 million barrels in 1938.

 
The Soviets are going fight to take it back eventually, unless the Japanese compensate them for it.
You don't just snatch de jure territory off a major world power.
Plus there are a bunch of Russians living there. Are they just going to become Japanese citizens?
 
12 million barrels of oil is nothing. Japan imported 106 Mbd (thousand barrels per day) in 1938 or 38.7 million barrels in 1938.

I wouldn't call it nothing... it's slightly less of a third of their imports.
 

nbcman

Donor
I wouldn't call it nothing... it's slightly less of a third of their imports.
The total output from 1941-1945 was less than a third of their oil imports in 1938. Or in other terms, the oil output over those 5 years works out to around 7 Mbd / yr. Their demand for imports in 1939 was 160 Mbd and in 1941 it was 192 Mbd. 7 Mbd doesn't do much when Japan's demand is 23-27 times higher than that.
 
The Soviets are going fight to take it back eventually, unless the Japanese compensate them for it.
You don't just snatch de jure territory off a major world power.
Plus there are a bunch of Russians living there. Are they just going to become Japanese citizens?
There'd be plenty of opportunities for Japan to compensate the USSR given the events of the Russian Civil War and aftermath. Japanese technical support or investment could suffice or payment, or simply cold hard cash to compensate the Russians for their property.

The Russian population was small anyway, and Southern Karafuto received over 400,000 Japanese settlers in the barely 40 years it existed. Despite the harsh climate, Northern Karafuto with the oil and coal industry would certainly attract plenty of settlers and investment that would swamp the small Russian population. Some of them might stay anyway since the alternative is living under the USSR.

OTL the Soviets occupied Karafuto, but it's a lot more difficult when they don't even have a border and there's still plenty of suicide torpedo boats and kamikazes out there to keep the small Soviet Navy away from the island. Since it also contains some of the best coal and oil reserves for Japan and there's a real danger of invasion since it's so close to the mainland, perhaps it would be decently fortified. USSR suffered rather heavy losses in the Kurils from their naval invasions there. It would take until winter 1945 for the strait to freeze up too so invading would be very difficult for months. If Downfall happens, then I think it would hold out well into 1946.

If the Soviets don't have the island occupied when Japan surrenders, then they'd have to ask the US to let them occupy it.
 

xsampa

Banned
There'd be plenty of opportunities for Japan to compensate the USSR given the events of the Russian Civil War and aftermath. Japanese technical support or investment could suffice or payment, or simply cold hard cash to compensate the Russians for their property.

The Russian population was small anyway, and Southern Karafuto received over 400,000 Japanese settlers in the barely 40 years it existed. Despite the harsh climate, Northern Karafuto with the oil and coal industry would certainly attract plenty of settlers and investment that would swamp the small Russian population. Some of them might stay anyway since the alternative is living under the USSR.

OTL the Soviets occupied Karafuto, but it's a lot more difficult when they don't even have a border and there's still plenty of suicide torpedo boats and kamikazes out there to keep the small Soviet Navy away from the island. Since it also contains some of the best coal and oil reserves for Japan and there's a real danger of invasion since it's so close to the mainland, perhaps it would be decently fortified. USSR suffered rather heavy losses in the Kurils from their naval invasions there. It would take until winter 1945 for the strait to freeze up too so invading would be very difficult for months. If Downfall happens, then I think it would hold out well into 1946.

If the Soviets don't have the island occupied when Japan surrenders, then they'd have to ask the US to let them occupy it.
American Sakhalin?
 

Deleted member 109224

American Sakhalin?
 
There'd be plenty of opportunities for Japan to compensate the USSR given the events of the Russian Civil War and aftermath. Japanese technical support or investment could suffice or payment, or simply cold hard cash to compensate the Russians for their property.

The Russian population was small anyway, and Southern Karafuto received over 400,000 Japanese settlers in the barely 40 years it existed. Despite the harsh climate, Northern Karafuto with the oil and coal industry would certainly attract plenty of settlers and investment that would swamp the small Russian population. Some of them might stay anyway since the alternative is living under the USSR.

OTL the Soviets occupied Karafuto, but it's a lot more difficult when they don't even have a border and there's still plenty of suicide torpedo boats and kamikazes out there to keep the small Soviet Navy away from the island. Since it also contains some of the best coal and oil reserves for Japan and there's a real danger of invasion since it's so close to the mainland, perhaps it would be decently fortified. USSR suffered rather heavy losses in the Kurils from their naval invasions there. It would take until winter 1945 for the strait to freeze up too so invading would be very difficult for months. If Downfall happens, then I think it would hold out well into 1946.

If the Soviets don't have the island occupied when Japan surrenders, then they'd have to ask the US to let them occupy it.
Or, Japan gives the Soviets the middle finger and tells them they’re not gonna give those lands back or compensation, the West will likely support Japan as they are anti Communist
 
Or, Japan gives the Soviets the middle finger and tells them they’re not gonna give those lands back or compensation, the West will likely support Japan as they are anti Communist

Strangely enough most of the Western powers strongly opposed the Japanese occupation of parts of the Russian Far East and Siberia towards the end of the Russian Civil War/ The attempted Western interventions in what would become the USSR.

That was largely the reason that the Japanese withdrew their troops from Vladivostok and the Russian Far east and stopped propping up their puppet state their. Perhaps if the Soviets were even most violently opposed to the Western Capitalist powers (Say trying to send guns and the like to forment more revolutions abroad or had somehow won in the Polish/Soviet War.) The Polish/Soviet War seems the best bet. If the Soviets take Warsaw the Western powers are going to be a lot less opposed to the Japanese effectively taking a big chunk of the Russian Far East.
 
Strangely enough most of the Western powers strongly opposed the Japanese occupation of parts of the Russian Far East and Siberia towards the end of the Russian Civil War/ The attempted Western interventions in what would become the USSR.

That was largely the reason that the Japanese withdrew their troops from Vladivostok and the Russian Far east and stopped propping up their puppet state their. Perhaps if the Soviets were even most violently opposed to the Western Capitalist powers (Say trying to send guns and the like to forment more revolutions abroad or had somehow won in the Polish/Soviet War.) The Polish/Soviet War seems the best bet. If the Soviets take Warsaw the Western powers are going to be a lot less opposed to the Japanese effectively taking a big chunk of the Russian Far East.
Churchill would probably support it as he wanted a full scale intervention in the Russian civil war.
 
Top