WI: The Iron Curtain followed the Rhine and the Alps?

[Deleted member 97083]

Due to a delayed or failed Operation Overlord, yet historical performance in Operation Bagration, the Soviets push much farther west and the Allies have a harder time pushing east.

By the time the Germans surrender, the frontlines between Soviet occupation and American-British-French occupation very closely follow the Rhine and the Alps. It wouldn't line up perfectly of course, but after some negotiation (much like the OTL negotiation where the Soviets enlarged East Germany while ceding West Berlin), the border between West and East is set exactly along the Rhine river and the Danube watershed. Excluding Neutral Switzerland, of course.

So, what are the long term social, economic, cultural, and military effects of the Iron Curtain being defined by the extremely iconic Rhine river and Alpine mountains?

What happens to the very small German territory west of the Rhine? Would it become a small Benelux like republic--if so, what would its mentality be? Does the small West Germany have room to develop economically or is it doomed to become a satellite of France?

I assume the small mountainous Austrian territories not ruled by the Soviets would become part of Italy rather than an Austrian rump state, perhaps getting local linguistic representation in Italy.

How is Switzerland affected by having a direct border with the DDR?

How are the politics of Sweden, Finland, and Denmark affected when they are basically encircled by the Soviet Union?

 

[Clandango]

This would go the the foothills of the Alps? I expect Voralburg, Tyrol, and the rest would try to join Switzerland but probably fail, but isn't he end act similar to them and get very tied together, acting as a pair of buffer states. The Soviets would likely be happy to have them as areas where their agents could slip in and out of France and Italy. And if you go by the Danube watershed, that means all of Austria, plus a bit of Bavaria, are independent of the Soviets. Are we considering the Wester Allies as having mostly moved up from Italy and into Yugoslavia and Hungary?

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I meant that the Danube watershed (whose southern boundary follows the Alps) would go to the Soviets. So Austria would be in the communist sphere, and the border between Austria and Italy, give or take some Alpine outcrops, would become an extension of the Iron Curtain.

Something like this:

 

[NoMommsen]

Sry, but that's not something, that can be called "The Danube watershed". That's Stalin conquering everything beside Europes most western parts. ... Dystopia
And how did he get most of the Netherlands either ?
Not sure with what threats he could wring that from Churchill.

Bot for the sake of the OP :
- The "rest"-Netherland you allow will go to Belgium, No other chance to survive.
- The "rest"-Germany will become an independent, rconomically dependent on France and the US(Marschall-plan ?).
- This Germany together with Belgium will become heavily occupied "front-states" only to serve the military and intelligence agencies members daily needs and deeds.
- Adenauer and other rhenish separatists of Weimar time will have a party : finally rid of these dumb prussians and bavarians and hanseatics.

Scandinavian politics will ... be that of the socialistic peoples republics of Finnland, Sweden and Denmarck. ... as independent as their baltic counterparts.
Maybe Norway has the "luck" due to british intervention to become something else like the mention "New Lowlands" of Germany and Belgium. However, Stalin would heavily push to get this shore also later on (with whatever means). Perhaps demanding to be neutralized as he "offered" it for an united Germany in the early fifties.

All in all : not a scenario I feel ... comfortable to interest in.

 

[Whiteshore]

- The "rest"-Netherland you allow will go to Belgium, No other chance to survive.

What about the rump Netherlands being run from Suriname or Aruba?

 

[NoMommsen]

What about the rump Netherlands being run from Suriname or Aruba?

Don't think the Flames actually living there (in rump-Netherlands) would accept this. Too far away for rendered able to deal with things locally.
Too near are their 'bretheren' south the border, with whom they will have constant interchange in every aspect of life.

 

[Clandango]

In this world did the Germans use all their men to defend the against the Anglo-Americans? You would think they would move soldiers from the West where the 'Anglo-Saxons' failed invading to the East where Germans would be massacred to the man due to... Well, the Eastern Europeans and Soviets realizing the Nazis wanted to massacre them to the baby. And while rivers are decent as a boundary at the Rhine, for the Danube it would be better to look at the mountains. Also, how do you guys think the Soviets would break up Germany in this map? I imagine splitting it into Prussia, Austrian, and Bacarian portions miiiight leave a bad taste in their mouth. Well, time to rename a load of cities.

 

[Clandango]

Don't think the Flames actually living there (in rump-Netherlands) would accept this. Too far away for rendered able to deal with things locally.
Too near are their 'bretheren' south the border, with whom they will have constant interchange in every aspect of life.

And, conveniently, the areas left behind are Dutch Flanders, Dutch Brabant, and Dutch Limburg! Though of course the Dutch or Germans would have opened up the waterline, flooding the are and leaving Am Stermdam and most of the coast on the far side of the Rhine, outside Soviet control.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

Well, depending on the exact front lines at the end of the war I'd imagine that Stalin would hand back The Netherlands (perhaps with some minor border adjustments in favor of the Soviets) as Stalin already has the Big Prize in Germany East of the Rhine and keeping the Anglo-Americans from crying bloody murder (too loudly anyway) about having Soviet Bombers within spitting distance of Britain.

 

[David Floyd]

Don't see it. Even if the Soviets occupied the territory, the US would almost certainly not accept Soviet domination of Central Europe any more than the Soviets would have accepted the Allies occupying Berlin and Czechoslovakia. Since neither side wants war, the logical outcome is a negotiated partition, much as actually happened.

 

[raharris1973]

If the Soviets occupy and puppetize Netherlands north of the Rhine, a side effect would probably be instant support for independence of the Indonesian Republic in the postwar.

@NoMommsen

Scandinavian politics will ... be that of the socialistic peoples republics of Finnland, Sweden and Denmarck. ... as independent as their baltic counterparts.
Maybe Norway has the "luck" due to british intervention to become something else like the mention "New Lowlands" of Germany and Belgium. However, Stalin would heavily push to get this shore also later on (with whatever means). Perhaps demanding to be neutralized as he "offered" it for an united Germany in the early fifties.

What exactly was Stalin proposing for Scandinavia, in tandem with a unified Germany?

 

[NoMommsen]

@raharris1973 I don't know of any actual schemes Stalin might have had for scandinavia.
I was only extrapolating what happened to the countries that IOTL enjoyed the favor of being liberated by him.

 

[Historyman 14]

Far too west. In 1945, the USSR was scraping the barrel for men, and resources. I can't see them getting that far.

More of Germany? Yes, but not this.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Don't see it. Even if the Soviets occupied the territory, the US would almost certainly not accept Soviet domination of Central Europe any more than the Soviets would have accepted the Allies occupying Berlin and Czechoslovakia. Since neither side wants war, the logical outcome is a negotiated partition, much as actually happened.

If the Soviets did occupy all that area (or a little bit more before negotiation to make the border match the Rhine), what could the Western Allies really do?

 

[NoMommsen]

If the Soviets did occupy all that area (or a little bit more before negotiation to make the border match the Rhine), what could the Western Allies really do?

Possibly the same, they did in the final negotiations to get a part og Berlin.
"You know, ... Hiroshima, Nagasaki ..."