WI: The Irish national uprising happens after October 1917?

IOTL, The Easter Rising was a short term failure that laid the ground work for the formation of the Republic of Ireland. The leaders were all executed and became martyrs of the cause of Irish freedom. What would happen if it was postponed for a year and took place after the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia? IMHO, given how red Irish nationalism can be just in general (look at Connolly) I think that the effect would be the declaration of a Socialist Republic.
 
IOTL, The Easter Rising was a short term failure that laid the ground work for the formation of the Republic of Ireland. The leaders were all executed and became martyrs of the cause of Irish freedom. What would happen if it was postponed for a year and took place after the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia? IMHO, given how red Irish nationalism can be just in general (look at Connolly) I think that the effect would be the declaration of a Socialist Republic.

Well, first off you'd probably have an ACTUAL rising by the full IRA, rather than IOTL where most of the operation was called off save for a few die-hards in Dublin who refused to listen. Its pretty hard to have a worse execution of the plan than actually occured provided the entire organization is in synch. As a result, the Rising lasts longer and is more broadly based throughout the country, limiting the British government's ability to pull in troops from the rest of the Island to crack down on Dublin as quickly. Given how much of the British military is on the Continent in one spot or another, and that the units left at home are largely 3rd-string and in training, I'd give the movement months before London manages to bring in force that's potenetially overwhelming... by which point armories and cities across Ireland have probably been seized, with Ulster a violent cluster-(French sea lion) as Protestants and Catholics clash over control.

Given that it would be associated with the Reds however, and that the Rising would be alot bloodier and longer than IOTL, expect the cause of Irish Nationalism to get shot through the heart. When the Brits finally DO put it down, it would be touted by the Unionists as a sign that a government from Dublin couldn't be "responsible" that the loyal men of Belfast had every right to be afraid, and the the Empire needs a stronger and more centeralized, not weaker hand. Especially during the sacrifice of war-time, the English would see this as a HUGE betrayal.
 
Well, first off you'd probably have an ACTUAL rising by the full IRA, rather than IOTL where most of the operation was called off save for a few die-hards in Dublin who refused to listen. Its pretty hard to have a worse execution of the plan than actually occured provided the entire organization is in synch. As a result, the Rising lasts longer and is more broadly based throughout the country, limiting the British government's ability to pull in troops from the rest of the Island to crack down on Dublin as quickly. Given how much of the British military is on the Continent in one spot or another, and that the units left at home are largely 3rd-string and in training, I'd give the movement months before London manages to bring in force that's potenetially overwhelming... by which point armories and cities across Ireland have probably been seized, with Ulster a violent cluster-(French sea lion) as Protestants and Catholics clash over control.

Given that it would be associated with the Reds however, and that the Rising would be alot bloodier and longer than IOTL, expect the cause of Irish Nationalism to get shot through the heart. When the Brits finally DO put it down, it would be touted by the Unionists as a sign that a government from Dublin couldn't be "responsible" that the loyal men of Belfast had every right to be afraid, and the the Empire needs a stronger and more centeralized, not weaker hand. Especially during the sacrifice of war-time, the English would see this as a HUGE betrayal.
This assumes that the rising is put down, would it have to be? Also, what would be the effects on the early Soviet Union if they had a "sister state" in Ireland? Obviously the embattled and surrounded Bolsheviks can't really give more than moral support to their Irish comrades, but it would reduce British ability to support the whites.
 
This assumes that the rising is put down, would it have to be? Also, what would be the effects on the early Soviet Union if they had a "sister state" in Ireland? Obviously the embattled and surrounded Bolsheviks can't really give more than moral support to their Irish comrades, but it would reduce British ability to support the whites.

Yes. It might not be in 1917, or 1918, but if Ireland is Red than the British government will do everything in its power to crush it. Especially since the uprising takes place during the height of the Great War, when patriotism and militarism among the population is at an all-time high. Granted, by that time the situation probably resembles more of a civil war/invasion of Ireland than an intervention against an Uprising, but when the British Army comes home the first thing the Conservative-Unionists are going to demand is that it be sent against Ireland. After all, it was the Irish in this case who have en-mass resorted to violence against Parliamentary procedure, which smacks rather poorly in Britain, and Redmond and Barnes have probably take some severe knocks in their popularity. If Labor and the Irish Parliamentarians fall out of government (Or even one) than the Liberals lose their majority and will either have to renegade on the Irish plank or be branded as "Traitors". While the Tories don't HAVE to vote no-confidence, it gives them that threat and allows them to force concessions from the Liberals... with popular support as horrors of the Red Revolution spreads.

And that's the best case scenario. Worst case, British Communists decide this is a sign that the World Revolution is at hand and try stage a general strike/uprising themselves. This hamstrings the British war effort and likely leads to a low-level Civil War on the British Isles or at least a brutal government crack-down. The Liberals will have to take a turn to the right in those circumstances, as the "Red" label associates the traitors/terrorists in Britian itself with those rebelling in Ireland.
 
Yes. It might not be in 1917, or 1918, but if Ireland is Red than the British government would do everything in its power to crush it. Especially since the uprising takes place during the height of the Great War, when patriotism and militarism among the population is at an all-time high. Granted, by that time the situation probably resembles more of a civil war/invasion of Ireland than an intervention against an Uprising, but when the British Army comes home the first thing the Conservative-Unionists are going to demand is that it be sent against Ireland. After all, it was the Irish in this case who have en-mass resorted to violence against Parliamentary procedure, which smacks rather poorly in Britain, and Redmond and Barnes have probably take some severe knocks in their popularity. If Labor and the Irish Parliamentarians fall out of government (Or even one) than the Liberals lose their majority and will either have to renegade on the Irish plank or be branded as "Traitors". While the Tories don't HAVE to vote no-confidence, it gives them that threat and allows them to force concessions from the Liberals... with popular support as horrors of the Red Revolution spreads.

I think that if that happened you could see The UK. become a fascist state in the 1930s. That kind of brutal suppression, especially as it would involve a permanent occupation over all or most of Ireland (and with the communist putsch working class/heavily Irish areas of Britain as well). This could increase the influence of The BUF or its alt hist equivalent. It would also make Britain clutch its colonies very tightly, India would be a nasty case.

However, I don't think it has to be that nasty. The Irish revolt, especially if they were able to take and hold large base areas could hold out for a while. Establishing a longer term dual power situation in the country, and that could draw British forces away from preventing revolution in Eastern Europe and funding the whites in Russia.
 
The problem with this ATL is that the "red" aspect of Irish nationalism is not a serious driver outside of Dublin. Even there they had outsized influence in the Easter Rising due to the fumbled launch of the rising.

The success of the Land War meant that communism was directly opposed to the interests of significant parts of the Irish revolutionary class.

This shift in date does bring about one very interesting potential wrinkle that I've idly thought about writing a timeline about. Without a a 1916 rising the British Government may have been more confident extending conscription to Ireland. In OTL they passed the law enabling it but never went so far as enforcing it. In fact, the outrage over the passage of the act was such they had to quadruple the Irish garrison in the middle of Operation Michael. The Irish Parliamentary Party left Parliament over the issue and the Irish Volunteers made clear they would resist any attempt to conscript men with force.

A Government more confident and oblivious about their position in Ireland combined with a stronger Volunteers and united irish Civic society has the potential to present serious issues for the British.
 
I think that if that happened you could see The UK. become a fascist state in the 1930s. That kind of brutal suppression, especially as it would involve a permanent occupation over all or most of Ireland (and with the communist putsch working class/heavily Irish areas of Britain as well). This could increase the influence of The BUF or its alt hist equivalent. It would also make Britain clutch its colonies very tightly, India would be a nasty case.

However, I don't think it has to be that nasty. The Irish revolt, especially if they were able to take and hold large base areas could hold out for a while. Establishing a longer term dual power situation in the country, and that could draw British forces away from preventing revolution in Eastern Europe and funding the whites in Russia.

The amount of British resources invested in the White cause during the Russian Civil War was hardly substantial (Though understandable given that the population was pretty sick of war), nor were the Western powers particularly concerned IOTL with stomping down on the Bolsheviks violently. I'm going to be brutally honest with you: I don't think you can get a successful Easter Rising, at least not in an Entente victory scenario, for the simple fact that there just aren't that many Irishmen, and not all of them are going to be loyal to the cause of the revolt. Ireland during its most recent population survey had barely over 3 million people, and its population was on a downward trend. Industry was fairly sparce in the Catholic-Nationalist south and the Royal Navy is going to be keeping close watch for ships, so don't expect such a rebellion to be well-armed for any significant period of time. The British government/Protestant-Loyalist forces are going to have a secure base and harbor in Belfast from which they can project power south, and have a battle-hardened army coming back from the Continent once the war is over (Or, push comes to shove, during it if things get REALLY bad). Also, by delaying the war this long the one potential power who might have spoken out on Ireland's behalf, The United States, is now a member of the Entente camp.

Depending on how long and tenacious the Irish resistance is, I can see this having a huge impact on Ireland's demographics (From war casualties, starvation caused by food confiscation, illness as the Spainish Flu starts to spread, ect.) and could have a highly variable effect on Britian's domestic situation. If nothing else, it gives the Conservative-Unionists a huge boost as the Irish Parliamentarians see their party shot in the heart and the Liberals face the back-blast of their association with them and the Reds. While I'm not sure you'd see a Fascist Britain (The Empire is still coming out more or less intact, democratic institutions remain fairly strong, ect.), something more resembling a "Red Scare" Era U.S culture might very well emerge, and more nationalist/state interventionist economic policies such as a protective tariff introduced (A pet project of the Conservatives, who saw the benefits it had for Germany and the Americans.)
 
The problem with this ATL is that the "red" aspect of Irish nationalism is not a serious driver outside of Dublin. Even there they had outsized influence in the Easter Rising due to the fumbled launch of the rising.

The success of the Land War meant that communism was directly opposed to the interests of significant parts of the Irish revolutionary class.

This shift in date does bring about one very interesting potential wrinkle that I've idly thought about writing a timeline about. Without a a 1916 rising the British Government may have been more confident extending conscription to Ireland. In OTL they passed the law enabling it but never went so far as enforcing it. In fact, the outrage over the passage of the act was such they had to quadruple the Irish garrison in the middle of Operation Michael. The Irish Parliamentary Party left Parliament over the issue and the Irish Volunteers made clear they would resist any attempt to conscript men with force.

A Government more confident and oblivious about their position in Ireland combined with a stronger Volunteers and united irish Civic society has the potential to present serious issues for the British.

I disagree, I think that there was a much stronger base for socialist politics among the Irish working class and rural poor. I've been reading a lot of fairly left wing historiography on the period, so that might be part of it events like The Limerick Soviet prove that it wasn't just Dublin.

Conscription would be a big factor, I agree.
 
However, any successful Irish Socialist state would have to:

1. Control all of Ireland (obviously a huge ask)

2. Have some regional ally who could support them against the British, only thing I can really see is if The Soviets are able to take control of parts of Scandinavia or if Greenland goes red.
 
However, any successful Irish Socialist state would have to:

1. Control all of Ireland (obviously a huge ask)

2. Have some regional ally who could support them against the British, only thing I can really see is if The Soviets are able to take control of parts of Scandinavia or if Greenland goes red.

1. Possible, but unlikely. As I think I mentioned above, Belfast is almost inevitably going to become a stronghold for the Unionists even if they lose control over the rest of the island: providing Britain with a friendly port and secure supply base. Combining Pre-WW I fears, the effectiveness of defense learned in the trenches of France, and the horror stories of Red Terror in Russia, and the ability to import resources via the sea (No way the Irish rebellion can blockade against the Royal Navy), and I imagine they'll be holding out in siege for quite a long time with the Orangemen's motto "Never Surrender!" echoing from the rooftops. I imagine it somewhat like a modern version of the Siege of (London)Derry: only thanks to radio and cargo ships the Unionists know "Prince William" is guaranteed to arrive. If anything, the Irish insisting on having the whole island is probably only going to serve to stoke up British stubbornness as well, eliminating the possibility of a peaceful partition. Even in a CP victory scenario, I doubt the Germans would insist on Britain freeing the island if the Irish Nationalist movement was primarily Red.

2. Greenland has next to nothing to offer Ireland, and the Red Fleet can't possibly be built up fast enough to outmatch the Royal Navy before the British can overwhelm the Irish rebels.
 
The problem with this ATL is that the "red" aspect of Irish nationalism is not a serious driver outside of Dublin. Even there they had outsized influence in the Easter Rising due to the fumbled launch of the rising.

The success of the Land War meant that communism was directly opposed to the interests of significant parts of the Irish revolutionary class.

This shift in date does bring about one very interesting potential wrinkle that I've idly thought about writing a timeline about. Without a a 1916 rising the British Government may have been more confident extending conscription to Ireland. In OTL they passed the law enabling it but never went so far as enforcing it. In fact, the outrage over the passage of the act was such they had to quadruple the Irish garrison in the middle of Operation Michael. The Irish Parliamentary Party left Parliament over the issue and the Irish Volunteers made clear they would resist any attempt to conscript men with force.

A Government more confident and oblivious about their position in Ireland combined with a stronger Volunteers and united irish Civic society has the potential to present serious issues for the British.

I agree with everything you've said - I don't believe that it is plausible for the mainstream of the Irish Nationalist movement to 'go red'. Yes, like in OTL you had the Irish Citizen Army and the Limerick Soviet, but in any ATL I can't see anything more than that.

I also agree with the idea that without the Easter Rising, the government, particularly a coalition government, might try to impose conscription earlier than the spring of 1918 and that that could radicalise Irish opinion. But without the Irish Easter Rising, would Sinn Fein be strong enough to use this ATL Conscription Crisis to their advantage and replace the IPP?
 
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