WI the Iraq war did not happen?

With the Iraq war finally winding down how would the world different/same if we had not invaded Iraq?

Lets try to keep the passion to a minimum and the reason to the maximum.
I.E. don't let your politics get in the way of your reason.

Something I don't think would have changed:
Bin Laden would still be free/dead someplace in Pakistan. No mater how much we want him dead, we are not invading Pakistan just for him unless we know exactly where he is.

America would have bombed Iran's nuke plants by now if we were not tied up in Iraq.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Who knows, but Al-Q would certainly be in a much wose position in Afghanistan.

I'm not sure about that. When we invaded Iraq, A-Q in Afghanistan was probably about as destroyed as we could do with conventional force. Even without Iraq, we weren't likely to send much more forces in Afghanistan.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Yes, but without Iraq you could have send reinforcements when Al-Q raised it´s head again.

I think that the coalition troops in Afghanistan are at a good number, reason: The whole point of Afghanistan was for the US to use local forces to achieve their goals, not for the US to overthrow the Taliban with conventional forces.
 
I think that the coalition troops in Afghanistan are at a good number, reason: The whole point of Afghanistan was for the US to use local forces to achieve their goals, not for the US to overthrow the Taliban with conventional forces.

Actually we don't have enough troops there. On paper we do, but a good chuck of the nato nations are unwilling to actually fight the Taliban. The Taliban takes full advantage of this. If the US was not so over stretched with Iraq and the surge we could make up the difference in forces.

So no Iraq and Afganistan would be more stable.
 
I suspect that the US would be involved in multiple Afghanistans at this point, rather than the overriding and ongoing concern that is the occupation in Iraq. It would consist of ongoing operations in places like Yemen, Somalia, MAYBE the Red Sea coast of the Sudan, which would get massive press coverage for a few months when the shiny bombers and missiles attacked, and then belated, rarely-mentioned pieces on the news much like Afghanistan is today.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
I suspect that the US would be involved in multiple Afghanistans at this point, rather than the overriding and ongoing concern that is the occupation in Iraq. It would consist of ongoing operations in places like Yemen, Somalia, MAYBE the Red Sea coast of the Sudan, which would get massive press coverage for a few months when the shiny bombers and missiles attacked, and then belated, rarely-mentioned pieces on the news much like Afghanistan is today.

Didn't think of that, but it makes a lot of sense.
 
I suspect that the US would be involved in multiple Afghanistans at this point, rather than the overriding and ongoing concern that is the occupation in Iraq. It would consist of ongoing operations in places like Yemen, Somalia, MAYBE the Red Sea coast of the Sudan, which would get massive press coverage for a few months when the shiny bombers and missiles attacked, and then belated, rarely-mentioned pieces on the news much like Afghanistan is today.

Wouldn't Yemen result in the same kind of uproar that Iraq caused?
 
The US will have $3 trillion more. No Iraq = Massively more troops in Afghanistan on the search for Al Qaeda and a major deployment of forces in Africa. Iran would not be as much of a problem.
 
ooc: Whop says Iraq is winding down?

WIthout an Iraq war the credibility of Howard, Blair and Bush would be intact. It is likely that the first two would perhaps still be in power (with Howard getting ready to annoint Costello his successor to the Prime Ministership once he passes Menzies in years of office)

Bush would also be a more credible leader (this is shot now in many nations worldwide because of the phony WMD excuses and the like) and worldwide support for the war on terror would be higher as a result. Remember there are many nations out there that do not support this war, and even more that just do enough to make sure America doesnt bomb their backyards.

Iran would still be a major issue, however America and the rest of the West would have a stronger moral high ground in the nuclear non-proliferation talks. Not to mention the Western world would not be weary from 5 years of war and counter-insurgency in Iraq, and thus would be more willing politcally to meet Iran head on.

Lastly this is not to mentrion that thed militants would not get all the juicy propoganda over American and Western abuses in Iraq (Abu Gharib anyone?) This would probably affect recruitment and membership to their oreganisations and also public support for their efforts against the 'crusaders'
 
What would the POD be for the Iraq war not happening anyway?

That's an excellent question. To be honest with you I was just thinking along the lines the debate on the war ended with Congress voting against it. But I can't really see how that could be possible. The Dems where acting like Bush's personal yes men and the GOP is pretty unlikely to vote against their president.

Saddam could have come clean on his lack of WMDs but he was convinced the US was just going run another bombing complain not an invasion. He was using the WMD threat as a way of keeping Iran at bay.

The intel on Iraq's WMDs was the same during the Clinton years so I very much doubt any intel leaks could have stopped it (We had a total lack of on the ground intel).

Anyone have anything plausible besides Bush decides not to invade for random reason <X>?
 
Top