WI: The Iran-Iraq War Has a Victor

They'd probably be absorbed. What was Saddam's plan for Kuwait?


Isn't that largely populated by Shia? Iraq is going to become more imbalanced than it already is and Saddam and the Sunni are going to be an even smaller minority. That said I don't think Iraq could have ever actually won. Iran fought the war without trying to give the armed forces to much power, if they are losing to bad they might let the dog off the leash and go for it.
 
Were there any contingency plans in the event that one side actually won? For example, if Iraq had actually defeated Iran and seized the western petroleum reserves, it would be on par with its invasion of Kuwait in terms of how much influence it would have on world energy markets. Then it would be a question of what they would do with Kuwait, which Iraq has regarded as a lost province. Iran would also make huge gains if it achieved victory in Shia areas of Iraq.

Yes, that is what Central Command or the RDF in the old days was up to, planning for what it could do to keep the oil fields out of the hands of hostile powers. AFAIK all those are still 'Secret'. Maybe in a few more years we will see some substance from that era declassified.
 
Slightly confused where people are getting some of their ideas for a post-war Iran or Iraq victory are coming from. One of the largest points shown, both by Iraq's invasion of Khuzestan and Iranian attempts to get the majority Shi'a Iraqi population to revolt, was that nationalism, as opposed to sectarianism or ethnic nationalism, was more important in both Iran and Iraq. Despite Saddam's claims to be "defender of the Arabs", there was very little in the way of genuine support from pro-Ahvaz groups in Khuzestan during the invasion and occupation. Likewise, Shi'a Iraqis fought alongside their Sunni countrymen against Shi'a Iran. Why? Because both groups saw the invader as exactly what they were: a foreign power.

So best case scenario?

Iraq: Shatt-al Arab and Khuzestan annexed, and likely subject to either a grinding, brutal occupation a la Kurdistan, or simply depopulated and filled with "loyal" Baathists. Either way, super messy, and way worse for Iraq in the long run.

Iran: Probably OTL's scenario. Anything more (a spreading of the revolution to Iraq) would not be hugely unpopular for about 2/3rds of the country, but also be something Iran could not feasibly support, either in economic or military terms.
 
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