WI: The Inconfidence of Minas Gerais was successful?

Those of you who may know a bit of brazilian history may have heard of the "Inconfidência Mineira", which was a civil conspiracy in the region of Minas Gerais, with intent on seceeding the colony or at least the region in which the conspirators operated.

The brazilian populace, at the time, was very angry at the system of gold taxation imposed on them by the portuguese crown: every 20% of the ammounts of gold found by prospectors had to be collected by government agents and shipped back to portugal. This practice was known as the "Fifth". This has even led to a common insult in modern brazil, "vá para o quinto dos infernos", which translates roughly to "go to the Fifth of hell", which means the same as "go to hell".

The conspiracy was led by a small group of civilians led by a guy known as Joaquim José Da Silva Xavier, also known as Tiradentes because he once worked as a dentist. Eventually, the group was betrayed by a snitch known as Joaquim Silvério Dos Reis, who sought to regain support from the crown due to his debts. The group was arrested, most of its members were either sentenced to life-in-prison or exile, while the rest was sentenced to death. Tiradentes was the one most brutally executed because of his leadership, his dismembered body pieces hung across many villages across the region in order to discourage unrest. In the long term, this would be a mistake, as Tiradentes has been immortalized as a national symbol, the Martyr Of The Inconfidence.

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But what if Silvério never betrayed the group, either by convincement or by never having been indebted in the first place? Would a revolution be likely to happen? And if so, would it succeed in creating an independent state?
 
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Thanks for noticing.
The conspiracy only saw activity in 1789, being both started and aborted in that year. The same year in which the french revolution had started.
 
Thanks for noticing.
The conspiracy only saw activity in 1789, being both started and aborted in that year. The same year in which the french revolution had started.
Most interesting...

If this flourishes enough, it can coincide with Napoleon invading Portugal too!
 
Most interesting...

If this flourishes enough, it can coincide with Napoleon invading Portugal too!

If it ever does happen, i'm sure the portuguese royal family could be left with either nothing or nowhere to go.
I'm also thinking right now about the influence such a revolt could have on the neighboring regions. Could it motivate the hispanic americans to rise up as well?
And if it could, would it cause the "moment of awakening" in france to also regard the american independence wars, transforming it from "The French Revolution" to "The Great Awakening of the People of the World" or something that sounds just as inspiring?
 
In 1817 a popular separatist revolt blew up in the Northern province of Pernambuco... and it was crushed in 3 months, so I think that the prospect of Minas (being even closer to the central government) wouldn't be greater.
 
In 1817 a popular separatist revolt blew up in the Northern province of Pernambuco... and it was crushed in 3 months, so I think that the prospect of Minas (being even closer to the central government) wouldn't be greater.

the portuguese monarchy was already stationed in brazil by 1817, and napoleon had already been defeated, which meant that portugal was recovering at the time.
Portugal's empire was in an unstable position during the 18th century, and the early period of the french revolution proved to be inspiring enough for rebels across the globe, at least those who had news of it. So the rebel leadership in such a proposed scenario could be able to use this "rallying cry" to their advantage.
If you analyze the history of anti-colonial unrest in brazil, you may see that bursts of such unrest were fairly recurrent, may them be in favor of either autonomy or outright secession.
 
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