WI: The Incas win

Not a chance. If their first shot gets repulsed, the Spanish will come back for blood. Lots more men, all with metal armor and guns. I think many folks underestimate just how motivated by religious fervor the Conquistadors were. In their view, pagans who practice blood sacrifice simply cannot be allowed to win against the Holy Church.

So...do you think Spain will waste their hard earned gold to ready an army (that, mind you, could be on a good use murdering their enemies on Europe) to kill a bunch Bronze-Wielding Indians?

First, after this defeat of Pizarro, everyone will not see Incas as 'savages to be killed' but as 'people that aren't weak as we thought'.

Second, the Spanish Crown will not be funding any conquistadors after that defeat, even the adventurous streak will die, after all, the natives will kill you, and for the Crown, it would seen as a bad venture to send an army.

Armies cost gold and they wouldn't know the Incas have a immense amount of gold and well...the possibility of defeat as they ended up seeing with Pizarro.

Third, even with the die off, they couldn't know, after all, news spread slow into that age...
 
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So...do you think Spain will waste their hard earned gold to ready an army (that, mind you, could be on a good use murdering their enemies on Europe) to kill a bunch Bronze-Wielding Indians?

First, after this defeat of Pizarro, everyone will not see Incas as 'savages to be killed' but as 'people that aren't weak as we thought'.

Second, the Spanish Crown will not be funding any conquistadors after that defeat, even the adventurous streak will die, after all, the natives will kill you, and for the Crown, it would seen as a bad venture to send an army.

Armies cost gold and they wouldn't know the Incas have a immense amount of gold and well...the possibility of defeat as they ended up seeing with Pizarro.

Third, even with the die off, they couldn't know, after all, news spread slow into that age...
The Incas have resources valued in their lands, so yes.

Yes maybe but that doesn´t mean they won´t try again.

A yes the Spanish will just be "we took Mexico but our 200 mens didn´t manage to get the Incas, we go home boys because we totally can´t do better"

Yes 1000 or so men will totally bankrupt Spain. How wouldn´t they know about Incan gold?

Not that slowly.
 
The Incas have resources valued in their lands, so yes.

Yes maybe but that doesn´t mean they won´t try again.

A yes the Spanish will just be "we took Mexico but our 200 mens didn´t manage to get the Incas, we go home boys because we totally can´t do better"

Yes 1000 or so men will totally bankrupt Spain. How wouldn´t they know about Incan gold?

Not that slowly.

They wouldn't try for a good time.

On the second? Yes? Dude, with what would be the Spanish be worried? Indians or their enemies on Europe? Remember Spain ended up spending gold and silver into their wars against England, France...all of these countries.

Also, 1000 armed men, horses, guns...ships...

That seems to be very costly.
 
So...do you think Spain will waste their hard earned gold to ready an army (that, mind you, could be on a good use murdering their enemies on Europe) to kill a bunch Bronze-Wielding Indians?

First, after this defeat of Pizarro, everyone will not see Incas as 'savages to be killed' but as 'people that aren't weak as we thought'.

Second, the Spanish Crown will not be funding any conquistadors after that defeat, even the adventurous streak will die, after all, the natives will kill you, and for the Crown, it would seen as a bad venture to send an army.

Armies cost gold and they wouldn't know the Incas have a immense amount of gold and well...the possibility of defeat as they ended up seeing with Pizarro.

Third, even with the die off, they couldn't know, after all, news spread slow into that age...
Given the high likelihood of the Spanish and Portuguese losing expeditions, and the historical fact that they got clobbered several times, why would they stop entirely over this one loss?
I am pretty sure it'll take many expeditions for them to give up entirely. Pizzaro will be regarded as a failure for failing, rather than as a clue of the inevitability of Inca success - and he, of course, went to the Incas twice before his famous trip. The Portuguese also weren't shy about fighting known dangerous Ottomans despite also being on the far end of a ridiculously long logistics chain.

The Incas might also just shatter due to civil war; no fixed succession system is nice for picking good successors in times of success, but once faith in the system starts to drop it gives a ton of possible heirs a viable claim. 'Sure the last ruler said son Y should inherit, but the last ruler clearly was hated by the gods which is why so many people died inexplicably on his watch, pick me instead' is exactly what every ambitious princeling of Eurasia would have said, even in systems with established primogeniture. The Incas might have had different thresholds, but Atahualpa's civil war may well have set a dangerous precedent (that the battlefield determines the true heir) - and if Pizarro fails spectacularly he's not going to come across as a reason to not fight among themselves for the Inca, either.
 
They wouldn't try for a good time.

On the second? Yes? Dude, with what would be the Spanish be worried? Indians or their enemies on Europe? Remember Spain ended up spending gold and silver into their wars against England, France...all of these countries.

Also, 1000 armed men, horses, guns...ships...

That seems to be very costly.
A decade at best?

Yes one thousand men are going to totally win the wars in Europe for Spain.

They supported more in Europe, they had tens of thousand of troops(20k in 1470, quite more later) and that was not even the best they could do. One thousand men are not going to change anything.

Yes if you are a single person not if you are a country.
 
Spain didn't really fund the conquistador expeditions. If Pizarro gets annhilated, that's Not providing a lot of incentive for conquistadors to try their luck after him.
 
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