WI: The Iberian Union Never ends?

[ArKhan]

Two questions:
1. is it possible for Portugul to never split from Spain
2. What would by the long term geopolitical outcome of a United Iberia?

 

[Basilisk]

I suppose it's possible; there wasn't much a sense of nationalism, and the Castillans can do to Portuguese what they did to Catalan. Though there may be an additional challenge in that they are already established Portuguese-speaking colonies in the New World.

 

[Faralis]

Its doable, Phillip II respected their institutions, but his son and grandson did not, and even then it was a lucky chance that the Spanish where at war with the French over Catalonia and the fact that they proclaim themselves vassals of the Pope ... so just one of the factors out and you can keep the Union.

In the Geopolitical outcome, a lot of colonial wars with England and later Britain, with France and with Holland ( after all this one of the main reasons of the split ) ... but about later "problems" is a lot more difficult to speculate.

 

[Socrates]

Easily possible. You don't even need to accomodate the Portuguese that much - just have the Spanish defeat the revolt. They'll be like a Western Catalonia.

Long term Spain will stay for a player longer in European affairs. They will have revenues from the sugar plantations in Brazil, which should keep their economy alive much better. It also means they wouldn't have to deploy their army on their Western border during wars, and might be able to interfere more in central Europe/Italy.

I imagine they would be drawn to the French in an anti-British alliance, although dynastical disputes between the Bourbons and Habsburgs would still need to be sorted out.