WI the Hugenots defeated the Catholic league

What if the Hugenots defeated the catholic league, how would this affect history as we know it and how different would history be with aprotestant France:confused:
 

archaeogeek

Banned
OTL was their best shot: they won, but as part of the royal party. They were hardly strong enough to win and impose calvinism on the remaining 90% of France.
 
OTL was their best shot: they won, but as part of the royal party. They were hardly strong enough to win and impose calvinism on the remaining 90% of France.

more like 75% of France, but you're right, the Catholics were always a huge majority over the Hugenots.
 
more like 75% of France, but you're right, the Catholics were always a huge majority over the Hugenots.

I think their only chance would be an early victory, before war and mutual distrust solidified religious identities too much. Victory wopuldn't have to mean the destriction of Catholicism, just something like the German solution of 'Oh, OK, we won't burn you all, now stop fighting and help us". The Protestants started out as a tiny minority everywhere. In 1517, in Germany, the Reformation was a minority of one person. The anticlerical sentiment and distrust of the established church that fed their rise existed in France as much as elsewhere. Getting their position accepted early could allow them to make converts, selloing their brand of Protestantism as the true French way, painting their Catholic opponents as unpatriotic, ultramontanists who want French gold to feed Spanish power and papal vice.
 
Even a military victory by the Huguenots over the Catholic League would not give them the power to impose their power on all of France. Nonetheless, a Huguenot victory is certainly possible, and there are several possible PODs that would allow that. The easiest, off the top of my head would be for Henry Bourbon to either remain a Protestant, or for his Huguenot supporters to make it clear to him that they will not accept his conversion to Catholicism without regarding him as a traitor to their cause. Even as late as 1593 Henry's military situation was perilous, it was mostly the inability of his enemies to unite around one candidate that prevented his opposition from becoming very organized. If the League had accepted Charles de Lorraine as its candidate for the French throne, Henry could very well have decided it would be militarily impossible to abandon is core constituency.

Now assuming Henry can defeat all his rivals in the field, he would still have to take Paris to be considered King of France. The city would never open its gates to a Protestant, so he would have had to initiate yet another siege of the city in 1594 or so, and hope that the Spanish are too preoccupied to relieve the city. Paris would be starved into submission, but still require a large garrison. Henry would next have to conquer Brittany and Provence from the League, difficult tasks because of those provinces proximity to Spanish power.

Once these military victories have put Henry on the throne, he has now put himself in the approximate position of James II of England. He will be a religious minority attempting to impose political absolutism on a country that largely opposes him on religious grounds. Oh, and he will have deprived his dynasty of the aide of several skilled Princes of the Church. In return the Bourbons get to be the champions of Protestantism, and condemn themselves to be dragged into wars with Spain and the Empire attempt to assert their authority over the Netherlands, or Germany.

What would really interest me is how this would affect England. What if Britannia's mortal enemy was Protestant, not Catholic France? Could the historic enmity between those two countries be healed in the 17th century, or would their rivalry become an embarrassment to Protestantism the way the conflict between Denmark and Sweden war?
 
Hmm... A Bourbon protestant dynasty? But that could meaning no Richelieu, no Louis XIV, no Spanish war of succession, etc...
I guess Henri IV maybe could always married Maria de' Medici for repaying his debt he had with the Florentine family, but surely the marriage between Louis XIII and Anne of Austria will not be celebrated for obvious reasons...
 
Antipater said:
What would really interest me is how this would affect England. What if Britannia's mortal enemy was Protestant, not Catholic France? Could the historic enmity between those two countries be healed in the 17th century, or would their rivalry become an embarrassment to Protestantism the way the conflict between Denmark and Sweden war?

Actually... In those times, the English Public Opinion didn't wish to have any things to do with "The Frogs" while the French Public Opinion didn't gave a damn about the "Perfide Albion", but the two countries did shared good diplomatic relations.

Catherine de Medicis, Henry II of France's widow and the mother of the three last Valois kings of France, adopted pro-English policies because she saw England as France's best ally against the Hapsburgs (which, in a way, was true and logic).

Catherine de Medicis even tried to arrange a marriage between Elizabeth and a French prince. In an AH way of thinking, although hard to do, this is one of the last plausible chances of having an Anglo-French union as the candidates where Henri, Duke of Anjou (later Henri III of France), Françis of Alençon (Henri III's younger brother who died before him) and Henri of Navarra (OTL Henri IV). The marriage didn't happened, but there was indeed an Anglo-French alliance against the Spanish common ennemy. That alliance even lasted when the Scottish Stuart dynasty came on the English throne (remember that James II was a cousin of Louis XIV).

I also think I read Elizabeth had send funds and maybe even troops to support Henri IV when he became officially King of France (although opposed by the Catholic League). However, she withdraw her support when Henri converted to Catholicism.

Anyway, my point is that you would have a temporary alliance of France and England against the Hapsburgs until either no one can stand the alliance any longer or the Hapsburg are no longer a threat.

I see more France and England as "rivals" (sometime even as "competing brothers") than "mortal ennemies" by the way.
 
Guys

I would agree. If Henry IV got to power as a minority Protestant ruler then France would be a weaker power and hence relations with England would be better. Both are mainly threatened by the Hapsburg's who dominate both Spain and the empire.

Given that traditionally France gave aid to the Ottomans against the empire this is probably likely to occur again, possibly even more so. The only exception might be that a Protestant minority dynasty might be more cautious about upsetting it's Catholic majority, especially as any Catholic claiments [foreign or internal] would have idea propaganda they could use here. Hence the empire might be more successful against the Turks but probably not greatly so.

If able to have a period of stability and a moderate and tolerant level of government then you would probably see the proportion of Protestants in France rise. [Lack of the brutal persecution of them, lack of the stigmata of being treasonable and probably at least some conversions because the people involved thought that being Protestant would boost their chances of economic or political progress].

This depends on Henry and his immediate successors being moderate and far sighted. It also relies on many/most of the Catholics being willing to play ball as well. Not sure how possible this would be as the Papacy was often pretty interventionist at this point. However over the longer term, if the Bourbons could maintain stability and have some decent economic development then they could probably be fairly successful and popular and possibly hard line Catholic reactionism that opposes the monarchy could be seen as treasonable and hence unpopular. Especially while the Hapsburg powers seem a threat to south west, south east and east.

If this path did develop then the key question would be whether a stronger/earlier French intervention drastically alters the religious balance of power in Germany. This could break the power of the eastern Hapsburg's, or force it to a more southern location. Whether this leads to an earlier Protestant dominant power in N Germany, or a greater French advance on the Rhine or whatever. However this would tend to make France the new great power that others would combine to oppose. More likely, to avoid unbalancing the internal situation in France I could see it's eastern border being somewhat further west.

More likely however, with religion being so important in this period and such a path to be achieved requires such a combination of skill and look that more likely at some point a Catholic claimant for the throne comes to power.

Steve
 
Am I the only one that can see France splitting in two states (maybe called France and Navarra) or beeing HRE-style "federalized"?
 
Am I the only one that can see France splitting in two states (maybe called France and Navarra) or beeing HRE-style "federalized"?

I think is highly improbable, generally the French supported the rightful ruler regards of his confession. The Hugenots historically didn't fight to create a their own state but for the recognition of their religion; they didn't refuse the royal authority.

So for reversal, the French catholics in the end could accept a strong and legitimate but hugenot king: Henry IV could also imposed his authority claiming the principle of cuius regio eius religio.

Spain is occupied at that time of England and Dutch, so a intervention in France is highly improbable; Philip II could however launch an attack towards France, but if Henry IV managed to win the fight the consequences were surely disastrous for all the catholic states (Loss of Belgium and indipendence recognized for Holland, spread of Protestantism in Germany, Italy under threat)

Meanwhile, for this thread i want to suggest this TL from paradox forum: http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum...aris-ne-vaut-pas-une-messe!-A-Huguenot-IN-AAR ; it's based on a EU3 gameplay but it is well historical built.

Last news related, i read they found the head of Henri IV and soon it will placed at St. Denis.
 
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