Just what the title says. What if Władysław IV or John II Casimir sons survive? How would Polish politics look like with a surviving semi-hereditary Royal House on the Throne? How would European Politics?
Theoretically Władysław's son, Sigismund Casimir, would have had quite good chance for a throne. Problem is when Władysław IV died his son would have been 8 years old. Since Khmelnitsky's Uprising had already started electing a child is really unpropable, especially when dead king's brothers were available. It might have ended with a regency in the name of Sigismund Casimir by one of his uncles, but I doubt it - there were too many problems in PLC at the time and the noblemen were looking for a strong ruler with good relations abroad (John Casimir was supported by France). Position of a regent is always weaker than one of a king.
John Casimir himself, OTOH, became rather unpopular and eventually abdicated. I can not imagine his son being elected.
You mean the male line?What about the Swedish branch of the House of Vasa? Can they survive too?
Byzantine precedents do not have to be valid in Poland. AFAIR there was never in Polish history a case when a regent was crowned Co-King.So if Władysław IV's son survived then John Casimir would be a Regent King, like how the Regents of the Byzantine Empire were usually crowned Co-Emperors. If its John Casimir's son that survived, would his father still abdicate? Or at the very least would guess he would wait until his son reached his majority and could be elected as his successor.
Originally posted by Emperor Constantine
Byzantine precedents do not have to be valid in Poland. AFAIR there was never in Polish history a case when a regent was crowned Co-King.
And John Casimir abdicated not for whim, but because of failure of his policy due to internal opposition. I doubt if his son would have had any significant chance for throne.
Not to mention the fact that even if the line of Polish Vasas had survived there would have been no guarantee that they would keep Polish throne. The noblemen didn't have to elect a member of present ruling family.
The Habsburgs could influence the electors to vote in their favor. What do the Vasa have to encourage the responsible parties in Poland to do so?
Well what did they do OTL? I mean when there was a Vasa candidate, he was elected, so they must have been doing something right. Plus, the Vasas would be the closest heirs to the old Jagiellonian dynasty, so that could be a factor in it but I'm not sure.
I'm not sure, but there's a big difference between a few individual candidates managing it for whatever reasons, and a long term dynastic hold on the throne.
Three Vasa candidates got elected and if the Vasa line hadn't gone extinct then more would have probably been elected. Would having a semi-hereditary monarchy help the Commonwealth or not? I mean I know one of the main problems Poland had was large-scale decentralization that occurred during that era not to mention the liberum veto.
As for a better long-term Hold, maybe some of Władysław IV's plans could have succeeded.
Four Luxemburg candidates got elected to Holy Roman Emperor, that doesn't mean that Sigismund having a son would have lead to more.
I'm not seeing how you get a semi-hereditary monarchy here - the Sejm seems to have wanted to block Wladyslaw, after all.
Using that argument, I could say that even though 16 Habsburgs were elected Holy Roman Emperor, there would be no guarantee that the Empire surviving would lead to more.
True the Sejm opposed him but they still elected his brother King. If they were so sick of having a Vasa king, then the Sejm would have elected someone else after Wladyslaw IV died.