WI the House of Savoy goes extinct around the 1580's?

During the 16th century the nobles of the House of Savoy were quite unlucky regarding surviving legitimate male heirs. Philibert II didn't have any, both Charles III and Emmanuel Philibert one had only one child, and Philip, Duke of Nemours (the younger brother of Philibert II and Charles III) only had one too. So, WI this trend had got worse and the family had gone extinct by the that century?

I assuming two PODs here. The first is that Anna D'Este, the wife of Jacques of Savoy (son of Philip, Duke of Nemours) fails to deliver him her two OTL sons, or both of them die at an young age in the early 1570's. Jacques still dies in 1585 as IOTL.

The second POD is that Charles Emmanuel I dies in 1585 too, before his marriage to Catherine Michelle of Spain. So, in this year, with the death of Charles Emmanuel and Jacques the House of Savoy goes extinct.

How the succession would go? Savoy was part of HRE, so could the Habsburgs annex it to their domains as they did with Milan before when the Sforzas died out? In the other hand, the general heir of the Savoys, if we follow bloodline and primogeniture would be Henry III of France. I simply can't see the French not raising a claim to such strategic territory. So, what could happen?
 
Female succession was permitted at some point - John Lackland was betrothed for several years to Anne de Maurienne, heiress of Savoie and Piemonte, daughter of Count Humbert and niece of Adelaide who was Queen of France. I don't know why it was phased out but I guess the option would be to bring it back, or for the last Duke to will or sell his entire domains as the last Duke of Guelders did.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
On the one hand the French have proven that they can pretty effectively occupy Savoy-Piedmont. After all Charles Emmanuel's father only got it back under Cateau-Cambresis after 25 years of French occupation during which it wasn't at all certain that the Savoys would ever be restored. Plus the French still control Saluzzo which gives them a foot hold on the other side of the Alps.

On the other hand France of 1585 is not the France of the 1530s and 40s. With the French succession so unsettled and civil war looming it seems debatable whether they could successfully press a claim. I'm sure they'd try. And perhaps Henry III could use it as a way of uniting France against a common enemy, namely Spain. But then the question arises, who is Henry III's heir? Certainly in Savoy it would unquestionably be one of his sisters. But his eldest sister was married to the King of Spain, the second to the Duke of Lorraine and the youngest to the protestant Henry of Navarre. So how do you sort all that out?

Would it be possible to work out some compromise where France gets a little something, maybe Pinerolo is restored (they only gave it back to Savoy in 1574) and Nice (which has a historical link to Provence anyways) and Bresse. The rest can go to Catherine Michelle of Spain, who would be declared heir of her mother Elisabeth of Valois. She could then marry some compromise candidate, some German or Italian Prince? Is that realistic? It seems like France would have to compromise because a long drawn out war war would probably favor Spain, though perhaps at the expense of the Netherlands. But Spain would have to fight because Savoy is important to maintaining the Spanish Road.

I think there's a certain symmetry here in that OTL Philip II gave the Netherlands to his other daughter Isabella Clara Eugenia. So perhaps now the two grants are made simultaneously. Weaker in the Netherlands because of the distraction of War in Savoy, Spain grants it autonomy under Isabella a little earlier than OTL. Then another Infanta is placed in charge in Savoy. So basically Spain creates a string of allied quasi-satellite states ringing France. I suppose this means that Catherine Michelle would have to marry a Habsburg Archduke, however, and I'm not sure one's available save for the future Ferdinand II. Hmm... that could get messy. Given Savoy's status in HRE I suppose this would get wrapped up in some kind of equivalent to the Treaty of Onate between the two Habsburg branches.

I suppose another possibility is that the Guise faction in France could support the candidacy of the Duke of Lorraine, by way of his mother Claude of France, under the theory that it only strengthens their power in France against Henry of Navarre (who I suppose has a claim not only jure uxoris but also as a descendent of Marguerite of Navarre). Or Henry of Guise could perhaps betroth his son to Catherine Michelle in exchange for Spanish support and make a direct claim. Interestingly the Duke of Guise's brother, Charles of Mayenne, is already married to Henriette of Savoy, heiress of an illegitimate line of the House of Savoy. So maybe the Bourbons get France and exile the Guises who then get Savoy where they remain Spanish clients.
 
On the other hand France of 1585 is not the France of the 1530s and 40s. With the French succession so unsettled and civil war looming it seems debatable whether they could successfully press a claim. I'm sure they'd try. And perhaps Henry III could use it as a way of uniting France against a common enemy, namely Spain. But then the question arises, who is Henry III's heir? Certainly in Savoy it would unquestionably be one of his sisters. But his eldest sister was married to the King of Spain, the second to the Duke of Lorraine and the youngest to the protestant Henry of Navarre. So how do you sort all that out?

Would it be possible to work out some compromise where France gets a little something, maybe Pinerolo is restored (they only gave it back to Savoy in 1574) and Nice (which has a historical link to Provence anyways) and Bresse. The rest can go to Catherine Michelle of Spain, who would be declared heir of her mother Elisabeth of Valois. She could then marry some compromise candidate, some German or Italian Prince? Is that realistic? It seems like France would have to compromise because a long drawn out war war would probably favor Spain, though perhaps at the expense of the Netherlands. But Spain would have to fight because Savoy is important to maintaining the Spanish Road.

I think there's a certain symmetry here in that OTL Philip II gave the Netherlands to his other daughter Isabella Clara Eugenia. So perhaps now the two grants are made simultaneously. Weaker in the Netherlands because of the distraction of War in Savoy, Spain grants it autonomy under Isabella a little earlier than OTL. Then another Infanta is placed in charge in Savoy. So basically Spain creates a string of allied quasi-satellite states ringing France. I suppose this means that Catherine Michelle would have to marry a Habsburg Archduke, however, and I'm not sure one's available save for the future Ferdinand II. Hmm... that could get messy. Given Savoy's status in HRE I suppose this would get wrapped up in some kind of equivalent to the Treaty of Onate between the two Habsburg branches.

I suppose another possibility is that the Guise faction in France could support the candidacy of the Duke of Lorraine, by way of his mother Claude of France, under the theory that it only strengthens their power in France against Henry of Navarre (who I suppose has a claim not only jure uxoris but also as a descendent of Marguerite of Navarre). Or Henry of Guise could perhaps betroth his son to Catherine Michelle in exchange for Spanish support and make a direct claim. Interestingly the Duke of Guise's brother, Charles of Mayenne, is already married to Henriette of Savoy, heiress of an illegitimate line of the House of Savoy. So maybe the Bourbons get France and exile the Guises who then get Savoy where they remain Spanish clients.

But would the Spanish would give so much support to the Guises? Weapons, money and troops (as IOTL) are granted, but a daughter of Spain (and a Habsburg above all!) marrying one of them? Not very likely. Also, Philip entertained his own ideas of making his daughter Isabella be accepted as the ruler of France. I'm not sure if he really wanted the Guises on the throne or they were only useful for him to cause troubles to the Valois and the Huguenots.

In the other hand, I think it's very likely that Philip could try to make one of his daughters the heir of Savoy. There were at least four Habsburgs available (the Archdukes Ernest, Maximilian, Matthias and Albert) to marry them. Also, it would interesting the possibility of one of them marrying Henry of Lorraine, the heir of Duke Charles III. If the same daughter who marries him receives both the Netherlands and Savoy then the heir of this marriage would rule over a continuous territory from Flanders to Savoy, occupying the whole Eastern French border.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
You're probably right about the Guises, I was kind of thinking out loud. But they will definitely be involved in the struggle somehow. Because it seems like Savoy will inevitably be entangled in domestic French politics and the War of the Three Henrys. Philip II singed the Treaty of Joinville with the Guises in '84 so he's already involved and committed to supporting the Catholic League.

The problem is Philip has to decide what to do in '85 when the current King of France is claiming Savoy and his successor is still uncertain. So I think Philip has two options. Press his own claim to Savoy, inferior to Henry III of France, or let it pass to France with the expectation that it will fall to him there after. I feel like disputing the succession with France puts him at odds with the French and makes his support of the Catholic League difficult. OTL the League already got a bad wrap for being backed by Spain but if its also bargaining away territory that is 'rightfully French' I think its support could collapse even sooner. Does taking Savoy ruin any chance of getting a French succession favorable to Spain?

So any settlement in Savoy has to be made in the context of the French succession. I think Isabella was only put forward for the French throne after the Duke and Cardinal of Guise were assassinated in '88 and Henry III died in '89. Before that I believe the official Spanish position was to support the candidate of the Catholic League, the Cardinal of Bourbon, who would have been succeeded by the Duke of Guise. So putting the Duke of Guise up for the Savoy inheritance may boost his chance in France and betrothing his son to a Spanish infanta may tie him closely to Spain. But it is perhaps a bit of a stretch.

So maybe putting forward one of his own daughters is the wiser option. Perhaps the best way to tacitly support the Guises is to marry one to the Duke of Lorraine like you suggested. In one sense that works because the Duke of Lorraine is somewhat dependent upon Spain to maintain control of Savoy. He has to go through Spanish controlled Franche Comte to reach it and he'll need Spanish support vis a vis French claims so that would ensure both Lorraine and Savoy remain pro-Spain keeping the Spanish Road open. On a related note I believe the heir to Nemours is the Duke of Mercoeur from yet another branch of the House of Lorraine, first cousin to the current Duke of Lorraine and second cousin to the Guises. Mercoeur also claimed the Duchy of Brittany jure uxoris. So its possible that the branches of the House of Lorraine could end up ruling a great number of territories in and around France.

You're right of course that there are other Archdukes. But Maximilian I think was committed to the Church having already been made Grand Master of the Teutonic Order. And Ernest is heir presumptive to Rudolf II, since it should be obvious by that time the Rudolf isn't having kids. Since Spain hasn't settled all its differences with the Austrian branch yet, not until the Treaty of Oñate in 1617, I'm not sure Philip would want to risk Spanish territory being transferred to the Austrian branch. But that does leave Matthias. I suppose since Ernest is still alive there would be enough distance between Matthias and the throne for him to be a candidate. Still it seems like Lorraine is preferable to the Spanish because he would be more easily controlled by them.
 
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