WI the High Seas Fleet didn't broadcast it's movements in advance?

In my recent reading about the MarineKorps Flanders I've learned that the MKF did a lot more of its communications by telephone than the HSF did, for example the HSF had(?) to radio for a channel to be swept of mines before it went to sea as well as a general increase and pattern to radio traffic. That and the short distances meant that the MKF often achieved surprise whereas the HSF had their intentions well and truly given away to Room 40 and the RN would sortie the GF before the Germans even left port.

To what extent could the HSF minimise its radio traffic and if it achieved this how much would it affect the war?
 
Random thoughts:

It seems the Germans would be able to do their 1914-1915 coastal raids whenever they liked without getting caught Dogger Bank style.

The Germans would hope that the British might think it worthwhile in response to put a squadron of battleships down the coast closer and then the Germans could isolate that, but I don't think the British would fall for that.

The British would just have to deal with a whole bunch of shot up coastal towns, might even force a shake up of British leadership.

I can see the Germans delaying their first submarine offensive until later if they are having success coastal raiding. This might mean a more successful first submarine campaign with a United States more conditioned to dealing with it more.

Perhaps the British might be induced to more offensive sweeps and raids themselves in retaliation to the Germans coastal raids.
 
If the GF is reduced to sitting in harbour or making blind sweeps, it reinforces the idea that dreadnoughts are irrelevant as they cannot effectively respond to or deter the German raids from Scapa. So how does the RN deal with this? Probably by emphasising the value of light, mobile scouting forces, such as submarines, minelayers and aircraft/seaplane carriers, to try to spot a raid developing in time, and to attrite it with torpedoes.

There will also be a push to station GF/BCF forces down the east coast in a form of forward defence. This is risky as there's a chance of German strategy working, of smashing a portion of the GF. However, it is likely to be a mistake not made twice, to no strategic effect, as the GF simply sits at home supporting the blockade. Alternatively, the RN might attempt to force a fleet action in frustration, by doing something ridiculous around Heligoland or in the Baltic, and effectively daring the HSF to come and have a go if it thinks it's hard enough.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
In my recent reading about the MarineKorps Flanders I've learned that the MKF did a lot more of its communications by telephone than the HSF did, for example the HSF had(?) to radio for a channel to be swept of mines before it went to sea as well as a general increase and pattern to radio traffic. That and the short distances meant that the MKF often achieved surprise whereas the HSF had their intentions well and truly given away to Room 40 and the RN would sortie the GF before the Germans even left port.

To what extent could the HSF minimise its radio traffic and if it achieved this how much would it affect the war?

They can do a massive amount of improvement. First, they can do almost all land base communications by land line, if they want to. They can stop with pointless ship location updates. They can have better code books. They can change code books after they were obviously compromised, or at least the encryption tables. They can use flags and lights more.

Now as to winning the war, this is a harder one to quantify. The HSF can't win the war, only the smaller ships can. From a military perspective, sinking 10 British BB for 3 German BB changes little. Now the political impacts can be fascinating.
 
Now as to winning the war, this is a harder one to quantify. The HSF can't win the war, only the smaller ships can. From a military perspective, sinking 10 British BB for 3 German BB changes little. Now the political impacts can be fascinating.

Its not a war winner, but I think it might be a battle-evener so the HSF gets a chance to achieve its objects rather than facing the full brunt of the GF much closer to home than expected. For example the HSF's plan at Dogger Bank was sound enough, but it was given away by radio intercepts so never had a chance. If the HSF wins or beaks even in a few more battles then RN will have to react and the resources for such a reaction will have to come from somewhere, most likely the Army.
 
The British would be forced to put more resources into reconnaissance, notably radio equipped aircraft,with potentially catastrophic results for the HSF.
 
The British would be forced to put more resources into reconnaissance, notably radio equipped aircraft,with potentially catastrophic results for the HSF.

Room 40 gave strategic/operational warning that allowed the GF to put to sea before the HSF did and get into position for air recon to pass on tactical information.

For air recon to duplicate what Room 40 did the RNAS would have to conduct continuous overflights of (defended) HSF bases and observe increased activity, channels being swept etc. which would require massive commitment of resources at the expense of something else.
 
It all works wonderfully until they have a ship torpedoed by one of their own submarines who did not know they were there. There was a reason the HSF operating in a much larger space did things differently to the MKF.
 
It all works wonderfully until they have a ship torpedoed by one of their own submarines who did not know they were there. There was a reason the HSF operating in a much larger space did things differently to the MKF.

I don't think radio use can be eliminated, it is the only way to talk to ships at sea and aloft airships, but I do wonder about the practicality of minimising radio traffic for other purposes.
 
Well standard messages will always be sent. And if the one for the U Boots contains informations that they HSF will sortie on the so and such, that would be not out of the ordinarry. So no major increase in traffic. And the ones to Zepelins and such would Imo and AFAIK be rather lower powered ones. Lets assume the new security concerns also change codes.

But all in all I think it would work one or two times before the RN realizes that the Germans changed their game. The interesting thing for me would be how they react. If they have to be allways ready for a sorty of the HSF that would increase wear and tear on the ships and crew. How much I do not know.
I think it could lead to a more "lively" Northsea theater in the war as both sides would have to increase light forces to screen and spy. And those could realistically meet much more often then the big boys. Not that I think they could stay safely in port. As both sides would need them to secure their lighter forces or risk losses becose the other side jumps them with heavy metal...
 
Well standard messages will always be sent. And if the one for the U Boots contains informations that they HSF will sortie on the so and such, that would be not out of the ordinarry. So no major increase in traffic. And the ones to Zepelins and such would Imo and AFAIK be rather lower powered ones. Lets assume the new security concerns also change codes.

But all in all I think it would work one or two times before the RN realizes that the Germans changed their game. The interesting thing for me would be how they react.

I think this is the meat of it, a sudden burst of radio signals in a desert of wireless communications would be a give away so you have to try and hide the pattern. However there is always is a pattern because humans are not truly random creatures and so sooner or later that will be identified. I think the idea that it works twice and then there is a nasty shock at some point around the third or later is the most likely outcome (it may not be the first time the GF try and intercept because they had a fair few near misses OTL).

Otherwise though the British may well settle for attrition tactics against the HSF...if the GF won't be coming down then lay more minefields and post submarine pickets off the coast, you'll bag maybe one or if lucky two ships each time but each is a morale victory and for the Germans it is even worse as they are actually the ones being worn down when they need to degrade the enemy battle fleet to achieve their goal.
 
But that works both ways. And Germany is better positioned to defend its coast against the RN then vis verse. Britain is an isle after all.
And should the Germans try and ambush those light RN forces it could be their win. The HSF would after all have Zepelins overhead and know more then the British near its own coast. That is not to say they will be overpowering the RN. But that the HSF would gain some new options to use.
On the other hand, without forwarning the RN would have to have more and heavier ships at sea at any given time and that plays into the German hands. They could use the same mines and subs to also hinder the patrolls of RN ships into the North Sea. And as you say one or two ships here and there and suddenly we are talking numbers...
 
Zeppelins with telephones/semaphore/signal lamps???
or
More likely zeppelins with radio
What people always seem to forget is the side that won historically was also the side that adapted faster and better to what their enemy did
 
trying to think what the Germans could hope to achieve navally. (assuming this POD allows them to perform better)

a) Win some battle in the North Sea early 1915, sink 6 Dreadnoughts for the loss of 2. This:
1) Makes Italy think twice about entering the war.
2) Makes the British keep significant pre-dreadnoughts and other forces along their coast, meaning the British don't do the Dardanelles.

b) Makes the Germans think they can do a war of attrition longer, delaying the first submarine offensive to 1916 where the Germans have more boats and can do better.

c) Force the British to try an invasion of Borkum or Sylt or some such Frisian island as a forward recon post (even better if the British take some Dutch island) and thus be in a position to win a decisive naval battle.
 
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