WI: The Hapsburgs don't inherit Spain

So, lets say Juana the Mad (Ferdinand and Isabella's daughter) is born as, oh, Juan the Mad, and thus, the folding of Spain into the Hapsburg monarchy doesn't happen. Instead, the Hapsburgs go into the 16th century with just the remnants of Burgundy, Austria, and Milan. A couple things I can see:

-With the Low Countries (which was, from my understanding, the wealthiest area of the HRE), plus Austria, the Hapsburgs will be in a much stronger position in the HRE. Is it possible that they might be able to unite it into something more resembling the French kingdom at some point?

-Assuming Martin Luther and the Reformation happen ITTL, how might the Austrian Emperor handle it differently, considering he won't be in Spain half the time?

-The Hapsburg's Dutch possessions are going to be richer than their Austrian ones (doubly so if they don't get Bohemia). Is it possible that the Empire might become Dutch-speaking instead of German-speaking? Or some new half-German, half-Dutch interlingua evolve and become standard throughout the HRE?

-How might Spain develop? Without Burgundy, I expect they'll be somewhat isolated from the rest of Europe, able to focus more on their navy and their possessions in the New World. Might the OTL post-1600 decline of Spain be softened/averted?
 
So, lets say Juana the Mad (Ferdinand and Isabella's daughter) is born as, oh, Juan the Mad, and thus, the folding of Spain into the Hapsburg monarchy doesn't happen. Instead, the Hapsburgs go into the 16th century with just the remnants of Burgundy, Austria, and Milan. A couple things I can see:

-With the Low Countries (which was, from my understanding, the wealthiest area of the HRE), plus Austria, the Hapsburgs will be in a much stronger position in the HRE. Is it possible that they might be able to unite it into something more resembling the French kingdom at some point?

-Assuming Martin Luther and the Reformation happen ITTL, how might the Austrian Emperor handle it differently, considering he won't be in Spain half the time?

-The Hapsburg's Dutch possessions are going to be richer than their Austrian ones (doubly so if they don't get Bohemia). Is it possible that the Empire might become Dutch-speaking instead of German-speaking? Or some new half-German, half-Dutch interlingua evolve and become standard throughout the HRE?

-How might Spain develop? Without Burgundy, I expect they'll be somewhat isolated from the rest of Europe, able to focus more on their navy and their possessions in the New World. Might the OTL post-1600 decline of Spain be softened/averted?

Uniting the Empire or even becoming Hereditary Emperor is hard and even then the HRE will be less centralized and maybe remain a bit federal.

An Emperor in the HRE could address some of the early issues, before all sides really became entrenched; and furthermore ironically a weaker Emperor could get Papal support for a council (like OTL Trent) much sooner. And the OTL Austrian Habsburgs were much more pragmatic (including religious affairs) than their OTL Spanish cousins.

A Dutch speaking HRE won't happen, Dutch influence on German might increase though. Besides Dutch and German started to really diverge from the Burgundian era, however even before that the most influential dialects of the two languages were from different parts of the same dialect continuum.
Without Spain the Habsburg marriage politics will be aimed to regain Hungary and Bohemia.

Well "Spain" from the crown of Aragon had quite some Italian possessions: the kingdoms of Sicily, Naples and Sardinia; furthermore France had claims on the kingdom of Naples, so an alliance between Austria-Burgundy and ''Spain'' (Castille-Aragon) could still happen.
 
-With the Low Countries (which was, from my understanding, the wealthiest area of the HRE), plus Austria, the Hapsburgs will be in a much stronger position in the HRE. Is it possible that they might be able to unite it into something more resembling the French kingdom at some point?

... or Spain ;) Well, the Habsburgs and their supporters had such hope over and over again for centuries. As I think they understood their situation better than we do in most aspects, I wouldn't rule out that it's possible. But I can't really see how not having Spain would help with that.

In particular, the rivalry between the Habsburgs (or "the House of Burgundy", as some of them identified themselves) with the French kings would continue similarly to OTL.


-Assuming Martin Luther and the Reformation happen ITTL, how might the Austrian Emperor handle it differently, considering he won't be in Spain half the time?

This is a very valid point! And very hard to decide.
Btw, this plays into your next item, I am under the impression that the language question was also a alienating effect. Emperor Charles V. was a Dutch speaker, and he didn't understand that much German. Although we wouldn't have this Charles in your TL, the *Charles would probably also be better at Dutch and French ...

Is it possible that the Empire might become Dutch-speaking instead of German-speaking? Or some new half-German, half-Dutch interlingua evolve and become standard throughout the HRE?

I haven't heard that much of Vienna slang in Spain lately ;)
Simple answer: No. The HRE wasn't a nation state, language was not a necessary connecting element. Although at this time the identification with cultural identity grows stronger: For instance, said Charles V. was urged at his enthronement to vow that he would issue documents only in German or Latin (as opposed to French or Dutch).
So the princes were somewhat defensive about non-understanding. But I can't see that the Emperor's language would have such a great influence on the language actually spoken in the townhalls of the cities, say. Remember that a number of Dutch speakers were HREmperors at this time, and yet this didn't have such a great impact between these languages, which are closely related and connected anyway.

-How might Spain develop? Without Burgundy, I expect they'll be somewhat isolated from the rest of Europe, able to focus more on their navy and their possessions in the New World. Might the OTL post-1600 decline of Spain be softened/averted?

I don't think they would be isolated. Spain was definitely a respected kingdom. Though not in personal or dynastic union, it would still be connected to Burgundy-Austria and other dynasties by marriages. Such alliances would be revived or new ones created later. Spain won't lose the connection.

The combined Habsburg complex was a gigantic power, and several leaders of this family dreamed of a "universal rule" over Europe, so as to found something like a new Roman Empire. It's very hard to say whether the Burgundy-Habsburg without Spain would dream the same dream! Probably yes, as they were constantly competing with France, which had similar aspirations; but this is not completely clear. And would Spain try to become such a hegemon? Would they even confront with the Habsburgs? I'd say I can see several possibilites in this important point.
But yes, less emphasis for this far-reaching (and probably unachievable) goal will spare the Habsburgs energy to use in other places.

And as far as I can tell, the Americas are not discovered yet by your PoD.
So it's by no means clear that Spain will have to do that, or that it will get a share from the beginning.
If we assume that Columbus sails for Spain and we have a Treaty of Tordesillas, I don't see why and how it should treat their new territories differently. However, there might by some influence from the personality of the kings ....

Are you planning to pursue this idea any further? I would be interested!
 
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I haven't heard that much of Vienna slang in Spain lately ;)
Simple answer: No. The HRE wasn't a nation state, language was not a necessary connecting element. Although at this time the identification with cultural identity grows stronger: For instance, said Charles V. was urged at his enthronement to vow that he would issue documents only in German or Latin (as opposed to French or Dutch).
So the princes were somewhat defensive about non-understanding. But I can't see that the Emperor's language would have such a great influence on the language actually spoken in the townhalls of the cities, say. Remember that a number of Dutch speakers were HREmperors at this time, and yet this didn't have such a great impact between these languages, which are closely related and connected anyway.

(...)

Which one apart from Karel V (Charles V) had Dutch as his first language though. I know that Maximilian learned Dutch from Mary (the Rich) and that he thought her German, but other examples (especially as first language).
 
If Juana the Mad had been born Ferdinand (he wouldn’t be named Juan because he would already have an older brother named Juan) in 1479, then his parents would have been very happy to have a second son. Assuming Juan still marries Margaret of Austria and dies in 1498, then Ferdinand the Younger would probably marry Margaret to maintain the alliance between Spain and Austria against France. If someone thinks Ferdinand would have a problem marrying his brother’s widow, keep in mind that Ferdinand II, in OTL married his daughters Isabella and Maria to Manuel I of Portugal. Ferdinand the Younger would most likely continue his father’s alliance with the Hapsburgs in order to protect Naples from France.

In TTL, Philip the Handsome would have most likely married Ferdinand II’s daughter Maria. Philip and Maria would probably be a more stable couple than Juana and Philip were in OTL. Philip would have been chosen King of the Romans and succeeded his father Maximilian as Emperor in 1519. Just how Philip would have handled the Reformation in Germany would have been very interesting. I suspect that Philip would have looked at the Reformation as a chance to increase his power at the expense of the Catholic Church, perhaps even forming his own national church for Germany. Philip may even become a Protestant, considering he wouldn’t have to worry about maintaining his rule over Spain as Charles V had to do in OTL.
 
So, lets say Juana the Mad (Ferdinand and Isabella's daughter) is born as, oh, Juan the Mad, and thus, the folding of Spain into the Hapsburg monarchy doesn't happen. Instead, the Hapsburgs go into the 16th century with just the remnants of Burgundy, Austria, and Milan. A couple things I can see:

-With the Low Countries (which was, from my understanding, the wealthiest area of the HRE), plus Austria, the Hapsburgs will be in a much stronger position in the HRE. Is it possible that they might be able to unite it into something more resembling the French kingdom at some point?

-Assuming Martin Luther and the Reformation happen ITTL, how might the Austrian Emperor handle it differently, considering he won't be in Spain half the time?

-The Hapsburg's Dutch possessions are going to be richer than their Austrian ones (doubly so if they don't get Bohemia). Is it possible that the Empire might become Dutch-speaking instead of German-speaking? Or some new half-German, half-Dutch interlingua evolve and become standard throughout the HRE?

-How might Spain develop? Without Burgundy, I expect they'll be somewhat isolated from the rest of Europe, able to focus more on their navy and their possessions in the New World. Might the OTL post-1600 decline of Spain be softened/averted?

I think it is better if Anne of Brittany is married to Philip the Fair, Habsburgs would inherit Brittany..
 
A couple further remarks:

  • Re Dutch: Afaik the Burgundian court language was French!
  • Re other Dutch speaking Emperors: Er, you're right. There are no other Habsburgs. But the Habsburgs show that the family alone doesn't determine the native language. Note that Austria was ruled by a Spanish speaker in the same time. Of course such a constellation has consequences, but it hardly ever propagates the language in question. One of the most enduring accomplishments of Ferdinand and his entourage of administrators is the German/Czech/Croatian phrase "That's Spanish to me" where you would put "Greek" in English ...
  • Re Bohemia: I'd suppose the Habsburg chances for the Crown of Saint Wenceslas wouldn't change a lot without Spain. Sure, they would not be exactly that stronghold of power and prestige as IOTL by then. But on the other hand, the importance of Bohemia for the ruler would certainly be higher, and royal electors tend to appreciate that.
  • @AlphaTrion: That's a good suggestion for a scenario! However, keep in mind that Spain wasn't the only alliance the Burgundy-Habsburgs were interested in, and vice versa. Also, as far as we know, neither Ferdinand and Isabella nor Maximillian had actually planned a personal union. The marriage was designed to strengthen the alliance against France, but not more. *Ferdinand (let's keep the name!) could also marry a Portuguese princess (in case one is available; didn't check). And right, the Habsburgs spend many thoughts about Britanny, but also Hungary, Bohemia, and perhaps Poland.
 
Re Bohemia: In this scenario, there is no guarantee that the wars between the Ottomans and Hungary would result in the end of Jagiellon rule in Bohemia. Philip the Handsome may be able to direct more resources and attention to fighting the Ottomans than Charles V was able to in OTL. Perhaps, Maximilian is able to call a Congress of Vienna in TTL with marriage plans similar to what happened in OTL. However, its possible Philip may let the Ottomans defeat the Jagiellons in TTL in order to place himself or one of his sons on the thrones of Hungary and/or Bohemia.

If Philip were to use the Reformation to solidify his control over Germany, he would have a strong power base to expand Hapsburg influence in Eastern Europe. France and Poland would be his natural enemies in this scenario. Philip and Ferdinand the Younger:D would be natural allies in this scenario. I remember reading somewhere that Henry VIII thought Philip the Handsome was a model of leadership for him:rolleyes:, so it would very interesting to see England’s foreign policy in a scenario where Philip lives another 20 to 30 years. Perhaps Henry and Philip in TTL actually succeed in a joint invasion of France with Henry becoming king of France and Philip regaining all of his grandfather’s territory in France.
 
OP doesn't guarantee Bohemia would fall into Habsburg hands. Also, having a Habsburg Spain kind of helps a lot. If Charles V were to separate his lands better, and his younger brother instead of himself was made heir to their Grandfather. This way, the Austrian Netherlands never touches Carlos and through him, Spain. With Ferdinand as heir, we can cross our fingers that Louis II of Hungary and Bohemia still dies, Ferdinand marries his sister, and the awesome Austria we know today still comes about, just a shitload stronger. Perhaps due to having the Netherlands as well, Ferdinand puts a cousin (or his second son, Ferdinand) on the throne of Hungary so as not to overextend. In this case, Austria has all the allies it needs to protect itself, and all the power it can exert to centralize the empire. (Preferably under Maximilian II who was very intelligent.

As for the language, It would be German, as Dutch is isolated, and French was spoken in Burgundy. Also France would get WTF pwned in any and all wars against the Habsburg alliance.
 
OP doesn't guarantee Bohemia would fall into Habsburg hands. Also, having a Habsburg Spain kind of helps a lot. If Charles V were to separate his lands better, and his younger brother instead of himself was made heir to their Grandfather. This way, the Austrian Netherlands never touches Carlos and through him, Spain. With Ferdinand as heir, we can cross our fingers that Louis II of Hungary and Bohemia still dies, Ferdinand marries his sister, and the awesome Austria we know today still comes about, just a shitload stronger. Perhaps due to having the Netherlands as well, Ferdinand puts a cousin (or his second son, Ferdinand) on the throne of Hungary so as not to overextend. In this case, Austria has all the allies it needs to protect itself, and all the power it can exert to centralize the empire. (Preferably under Maximilian II who was very intelligent.

As for the language, It would be German, as Dutch is isolated, and French was spoken in Burgundy. Also France would get WTF pwned in any and all wars against the Habsburg alliance.

There's no guarantee that Bohemia and Hungary will return (as they saw it) to the Habsburgs, but without 'Spain' that will be a more important goal for the Habsburgs.

Furthermore Charles (Karel) V was born in Ghent and Ferdinand was the one born in Spain, and Ferdinand did eventually gain the Austrian Hereditary Lands IOTL. In fact Burgundy and the Burgundian Netherlands in many ways were like 'home' for Charles; in the beginning of his reign Charles V was seen as a Karel/Charles (so as a Dutchman/Burgundian (French))in Spain not Carlos. In a similar way Philip II was more seen as a Felipe II (Spanish) in the Burgundian Netherlands than as Philippe/Filips II (French/Dutch). And one doesn't have to wait until Maximilian II, Ferdinand IMHO was a capable ruler and if Charles wouldn't have to travel ITTL like IOTL then he will do a much better job too.

As for language Dutch and German weren't isolated from each other, these languages developed from the same dialect continuum. The wealthy Low Countries and one of the most important possessions of the Habsburgs will increase Dutch influence on German, but at the same time the German-Dutch split will slow down and even grow towards each other. So IMHO the language will be a German more influenced by Dutch.
 
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