WI: The Guangxu Emperor outlives Empress Dowager Cixi

The Guangxu Emperor was the second to last Emperor of China and was famous for his attempted Hundred days reform i 1898. These attempted reforms included creating a modern education system, transitioning the Government from absolution to a democratic Constitutional Monarchy, a complete overhaul to the military and rapid industrialization. Sadly for China, a coup by Empress Cixi stopped all attempt at reform and left the Emperor as a powerless figurehead under house arrest. Fast forward 10 years to 1908 and the dying Empress Dowager apparently ordered the Emperors murder ( On 4 November 2008, forensic tests revealed that the level of arsenic in the Guangxu Emperor's remains was 2,000 times higher than that of ordinary people. Scientists concluded that the poison could only be administered in a high dose one time. So its pretty obvious that he was poisoned). So lets say that the Empress either doesn't order his murder, dies before she's able too or the Eunechs chose to not carry out this order and the Emperor is restored to full power after her death. How would this change history? Would Guangxu be able to successfully transform China into a democratic Constitutional Monarchy or was this doomed to fail?
 
I doubt China would be in a state for 100 days reform once again...

I wouldn't be so sure. From 1908 onwards China was in the midst of several political reforms. A Constitution was promised for 1916, there was elections for provincial assemblies and I believe that there was an attempt to have elections for a national parliament. It seems to me at least, that with a competent Reform-devoted Emperor at the helm it would be possible to pull these plans off. A lot of people don't realize that many reforms were attempted between 1901 and 1911.
 
Depends on how effectively he could control the imperial court. Liang Qichao would likely return to China with the support of moderate reformists who had indeed asked for his advice, and Liang has yet to become Republican-leaning by this point. (Kang Youwei would very likely be neglected by this point, given that he had already gone dicky and crazy.)

The next thing would be, how effectively he could control local governments, who have become very powerful following the Boxers' Rebellion. Even on the local level, moderate reformists are generally loyal and sympathetic towards the young emperor, but not the conservatives.

After that, the question of Yuan Shikai. Yuan Shikai, despite his opportunism, was clearly part of the Self-strengthening faction who favored military and economic reforms without touching the political system. However, Guangxu himself personally wanted to get rid of Yuan due to personal hatred thanks to his 1898 betrayal. In OTL, once Cixi died, Guangxu's widow would force Yuan to "retire". I don't see Guangxu pissing off the New Army that much by killing Yuan, he would simply go the way that his wife did. But without the support of Yuan and the New Army, Guangxu could easily get into trouble.

By getting Liang Quchao, you also get Cai E, whose relations with the New Army has never been strained - given enough time, he would be able to balance off the influence of Yuan. As of 1909, Cai was an influential military leader in Guangxi. Interestingly, he was seen as a conservative instead of reformist before being forced out by reformists and got transferred to Yunnan, where he would increasingly be seen as a reformist; but at the same time he remained personal contact with revolutionaries due to early ties. Given the personality of Cai and his likability within the military establishment and Liang being his political mentor, he could easily be transferred to Beijing for new roles. Cai was competent, intelligent, politically skillful and was able to work with different people; both Huang Xing and Duan Qirui like him on a personal level. To find someone who could balance the influence of Yuan, you have to have Cai transferred to Beijing and be assigned new roles before it was too late.

Last but not least, while the Revolution of 1911 happened by accident, Guangxu would have to avoid the nationalization of private rail in Sichuan in order to pay back debts, which would be very difficult. While the protesters at the time carried the photo of late Guangxu during the protest, my view is that not even Guangxu could do much to prevent the nationalization that would eventually come when the imperial court ran out of money, unless Guangxu could carry out effective fiscal reforms, but by then it would be too late.

Not to mention Guangxu's perceived weakness when it came to Japan. While he was somewhat inspired by the Chinese defeat in the Sino-Japanese war, he was according to some accounts trying to defeat the conservatives with Japanese support, though he was unable to do so: when Guangxu received Hirobumi Ito in September 1898, Cixi'a men were present at the scene to make sure that he could do nothing. Like Yuan Shikai who signed the Twenty-one Points, or Sun Yat-san who was willing to exchange OTL Manchuria in return of Japanese support, Guangxu may well have done the same to obtain funding for his reform programs, which could easily spark off nationwide protests.
 
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Depends on how effectively he could control the imperial court. Liang Qichao would likely return to China with the support of moderate reformists who had indeed asked for his advice, and Liang has yet to become Republican-leaning by this point. (Kang Youwei would very likely be neglected by this point, given that he had already gone dicky and crazy.)

The next thing would be, how effectively he could control local governments, who have become very powerful following the Boxers' Rebellion. Even on the local level, moderate reformists are generally loyal and sympathetic towards the young emperor, but not the conservatives.

After that, the question of Yuan Shikai. Yuan Shikai, despite his opportunism, was clearly part of the Self-strengthening faction who favored military and economic reforms without touching the political system. However, Guangxu himself personally wanted to get rid of Yuan due to personal hatred thanks to his 1898 betrayal. In OTL, once Cixi died, Guangxu's widow would force Yuan to "retire". I don't see Guangxu pissing off the New Army that much by killing Yuan, he would simply go the way that his wife did. But without the support of Yuan and the New Army, Guangxu could easily get into trouble.

By getting Liang Quchao, you also get Cai E, whose relations with the New Army has never been strained - given enough time, he would be able to balance off the influence of Yuan. As of 1909, Cai was an influential military leader in Guangxi. Interestingly, he was seen as a conservative instead of reformist before being forced out by reformists and got transferred to Yunnan, where he would increasingly be seen as a reformist; but at the same time he remained personal contact with revolutionaries due to early ties. Given the personality of Cai and his likability within the military establishment and Liang being his political mentor, he could easily be transferred to Beijing for new roles. Cai was competent, intelligent, politically skillful and was able to work with different people; both Huang Xing and Duan Qirui like him on a personal level. To find someone who could balance the influence of Yuan, you have to have Cai transferred to Beijing and be assigned new roles before it was too late.

Last but not least, while the Revolution of 1911 happened by accident, Guangxu would have to avoid the nationalization of private rail in Sichuan in order to pay back debts, which would be very difficult. While the protesters at the time carried the photo of late Guangxu during the protest, my view is that not even Guangxu could do much to prevent the nationalization that would eventually come when the imperial court ran out of money, unless Guangxu could carry out effective fiscal reforms, but by then it would be too late.

Not to mention Guangxu's perceived weakness when it came to Japan. While he was somewhat inspired by the Chinese defeat in the Sino-Japanese war, he was according to some accounts trying to defeat the conservatives with Japanese support, though he was unable to do so: when Guangxu received Hirobumi Ito in September 1898, Cixi'a men were present at the scene to make sure that he could do nothing. Like Yuan Shikai who signed the Twenty-one Points, or Sun Yat-san who was willing to exchange OTL Manchuria in return of Japanese support, Guangxu may well have done the same to obtain funding for his reform programs, which could easily spark off nationwide protests.


First of all, thank you for such a detailed response.

Second, from what looked up I agree with you about Liang Qichao. But I'm unsure why you said no to Kang Youwei? I admit his attempted Qing restoration in 1917 was ill planned and ill timed but how was he
crazyish in 1908? Oh and looking up Qichao, I found out he advocated a Federation modeled on the at the time new Australian Government as a model of integration might well be copied in the diverse regions of China. Any idea as to weather this idea has any merit or no?

Third, I'm not sure how the reform movement would go about re-centralizing China. Normally such powerful conservative leaders could be smashed by the army, but with the various modern armies precariously loyal... again I'm not sure. I mentioned earlier that Qichao advocated federalization for China on the model of Australia. Would that be a good model to use on the provinces? I mean it sounds like a good idea on paper but could it be put into actual practice.


Fourth, completely agree with you about Yuan Shika. There was even rumors that he was the one who had the Guangxu Emperor.Hell some sources mention that Guangxu ordered Yuan's execution in his will. So he might end up either poisoned or executed. However, I assume that the Emperor and the reformers knew how influential Yuan was with the Beiyang Army, so I would guess that he would either be dismissed or poisoned. Though considering his later second betrayal of the Dynasty, poisoning him might be the best way to go.

Fifth, looking up Cai E, he was in exile in Japan until 1911, so I'm guessing he would return to China with Liang Qichao. So he Cai E would be a better military advisor, almost a replacement for Yuan. Could Cai E be assigned command of the Beiyang Army to replace Yuan or was Yuan's popularity with the army to integrated to allow the Army to switch loyalty?

Sixth, could the Dynasty secure foreign loans, similar to what the Ottoman Empire did? Also, as to the nationalization of the railways, I thought the uprising has something to do with the fact that the compensation the Court offered to the investors in Sichuan was much lower than all other provinces. So if the court compensates the provinces equally or at least not so disproportionate when compared to the other provinces, would that be enough to put off disaster or no? It seems to me that such actions would give the Reformers some breathing room, perhaps enough to actually get reforms threw.

Seventh, I also read something to that effect. However, how likely would it be that the Emperor would turn to Japan in 1908? I can understand why he would ask for support from them in 1898, when a coup against him was immanent and he didn't know which army would support him. But 10 years down the road I doubt he was as naive as he was in 1898. Also, wouldn't it make more sense for him to turn to one of the Western powers, like Germany or the US or hell even Britain? I know that Guangxu was popular among the western powers during the Boxer Rebellion so its not unthinkable for the western powers to give him support.

Are effective fiscal reforms unlikely then?

Difficult but not completely unlikely.
 
I've studied this consept a bit for my TL. The thing is, after the Boxer Rebellion Chi'ing dynasty had lost much of its former clout in the minds of the Han Chinese officials in the imperial administration. Meanwhile the financial difficulties already pointed out in this thread were mounting on and further restraining the possible funds available for much-needed reform programs.

A suitable solution to this dilemma would be to remove Imperial Woman from the scene. But her unexpected death would still throw the Empire and Manchu court into a fierce struggle for power - in and in that emperor kept confined to his palace for a decade would be a mere puppet, not an active player.
 
I've studied this consept a bit for my TL. The thing is, after the Boxer Rebellion Chi'ing dynasty had lost much of its former clout in the minds of the Han Chinese officials in the imperial administration. Meanwhile the financial difficulties already pointed out in this thread were mounting on and further restraining the possible funds available for much-needed reform programs.

A suitable solution to this dilemma would be to remove Imperial Woman from the scene. But her unexpected death would still throw the Empire and Manchu court into a fierce struggle for power - in and in that emperor kept confined to his palace for a decade would be a mere puppet, not an active player.

I'll have to check out ur TL. But yes I did read something to that effect. However, the Guangxu Emperor seemed to retain his popularity, at least among the commoners. I can't be too sure with the Han officials. As for the financial problems, I know. That's why I pointed out two possible options. Either getting foreign loans, which without the Empress Dowager might be possible or when nationalizing the railways, give equal compensation to the provinces, since that seems to be what triggered the Wuchang Uprising in the first place.

Personally I think the best POD would be to have Cixi fail in her Conservative Coup in 1898, thus allowing the Hundred days reform to actually get of the ground.
 

katchen

Banned
Or have the Guanxu Emperor realize that to succeed he would need to have his mother killed. Very hard for a Chinese person.
 
Does any one have any idea what the Qing financial situation actually was? I mean I know they had to pay a huge amount of reparations to the Eight-nation alliance but besides that did they really owe money on loans? Because on Wikipedia I saw that when Yuan became President he managed to secure a 100 million $ loan so I assume China's credit must have been good. So could China under Guangxu secure a loan of that size to help pay for the reforms? Truthfully China would only have pay the loans until WWI starts. I doubt either side would invade China of defalted loans while fighting a massive war. Or at least default on loans to either the Entante or the Central powers.
 
In a TL I'm planning, the PoD is that Guangxu is restored to power (as a puppet) after Cixi is killed by her subordinates after a counterattack against the foreign legations is carried out with disastrous results. The AQing empire would still be doomed but you just might be able to avoid the warlord era.
 
In a TL I'm planning, the PoD is that Guangxu is restored to power (as a puppet) after Cixi is killed by her subordinates after a counterattack against the foreign legations is carried out with disastrous results. The AQing empire would still be doomed but you just might be able to avoid the warlord era.

I'd love to read it, the Qing are a sad fascination for me.
 
Does any one have any idea what the Qing financial situation actually was? I mean I know they had to pay a huge amount of reparations to the Eight-nation alliance but besides that did they really owe money on loans? Because on Wikipedia I saw that when Yuan became President he managed to secure a 100 million $ loan so I assume China's credit must have been good. So could China under Guangxu secure a loan of that size to help pay for the reforms? Truthfully China would only have pay the loans until WWI starts. I doubt either side would invade China of defalted loans while fighting a massive war. Or at least default on loans to either the Entante or the Central powers.

Damn, a couple weeks ago, I would've been able to give you a really detailed answer courtesy of this book I'd checked out from the library, but unfortunately I don't have it on hand any more. IIRC, part of the loan to Yuan's government came from Japan (and later loans from the Allied powers) in order to keep China from accepting German loans at the start of the Great war. So it might not have had too much to do with the shape of China's credit at the time and more to do with the politics of keeping China from siding with Germany during the war.
 
I'd love to read it, the Qing are a sad fascination for me.

The TL I'm going to write is about Japan, actually, just that the PoD is in China. Of course I also have plans for China that might become its own TL but in the same universe.
 
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