Depends on how effectively he could control the imperial court. Liang Qichao would likely return to China with the support of moderate reformists who had indeed asked for his advice, and Liang has yet to become Republican-leaning by this point. (Kang Youwei would very likely be neglected by this point, given that he had already gone dicky and crazy.)
The next thing would be, how effectively he could control local governments, who have become very powerful following the Boxers' Rebellion. Even on the local level, moderate reformists are generally loyal and sympathetic towards the young emperor, but not the conservatives.
After that, the question of Yuan Shikai. Yuan Shikai, despite his opportunism, was clearly part of the Self-strengthening faction who favored military and economic reforms without touching the political system. However, Guangxu himself personally wanted to get rid of Yuan due to personal hatred thanks to his 1898 betrayal. In OTL, once Cixi died, Guangxu's widow would force Yuan to "retire". I don't see Guangxu pissing off the New Army that much by killing Yuan, he would simply go the way that his wife did. But without the support of Yuan and the New Army, Guangxu could easily get into trouble.
By getting Liang Quchao, you also get Cai E, whose relations with the New Army has never been strained - given enough time, he would be able to balance off the influence of Yuan. As of 1909, Cai was an influential military leader in Guangxi. Interestingly, he was seen as a conservative instead of reformist before being forced out by reformists and got transferred to Yunnan, where he would increasingly be seen as a reformist; but at the same time he remained personal contact with revolutionaries due to early ties. Given the personality of Cai and his likability within the military establishment and Liang being his political mentor, he could easily be transferred to Beijing for new roles. Cai was competent, intelligent, politically skillful and was able to work with different people; both Huang Xing and Duan Qirui like him on a personal level. To find someone who could balance the influence of Yuan, you have to have Cai transferred to Beijing and be assigned new roles before it was too late.
Last but not least, while the Revolution of 1911 happened by accident, Guangxu would have to avoid the nationalization of private rail in Sichuan in order to pay back debts, which would be very difficult. While the protesters at the time carried the photo of late Guangxu during the protest, my view is that not even Guangxu could do much to prevent the nationalization that would eventually come when the imperial court ran out of money, unless Guangxu could carry out effective fiscal reforms, but by then it would be too late.
Not to mention Guangxu's perceived weakness when it came to Japan. While he was somewhat inspired by the Chinese defeat in the Sino-Japanese war, he was according to some accounts trying to defeat the conservatives with Japanese support, though he was unable to do so: when Guangxu received Hirobumi Ito in September 1898, Cixi'a men were present at the scene to make sure that he could do nothing. Like Yuan Shikai who signed the Twenty-one Points, or Sun Yat-san who was willing to exchange OTL Manchuria in return of Japanese support, Guangxu may well have done the same to obtain funding for his reform programs, which could easily spark off nationwide protests.