WI: the great prussian rebellion succeeds, the teutons are destroyed.

After the Baltic Crusades, there were several attempts from the native balts of recovering their independence. The most successful of these was the Great Prussian Rebellion, Which even had Mindaugas support (but finally was crushed, as the first Lithuanian king was murdered).

So, suppose that Mindaugas is not killed by his nephew, constantly sends military support to his fellow Prussians, crushing the Teutonic fortress at Konigsberg and finally destroying the monastic state of Prussia.

What would be the main effects on European history? without a significant Teutonic threat, would the Lithuanians convert to Catholicism?
 
Most likely not, depending on events following afterward - the area isn't really worth fighting over, so crusaders going there is possible but not a given.
 
The area was poor but close to christians. Besides united Prussian and Lithuanian efforts would be extremely dangerous for Masovian and Pomeranian dukes (and ultimately for restored Polish kingdom) so they would call for crusades. Also there was large population of knights in Europe looking for fame of pagan-fighters. In OTL even Czech king Ottokar II was one of participants in Prussian crusades, Koenigsberg was given it's name after him. And lastly the eviction of Teutonic Order from Prussia would cause a strong response from christian community, it would be shameful and danderous precedent, similar to great Vendish rebellion in 983. I think that crusaders would return eventually, though I don't know who would establish it's reign in Prussia: TO again, other knightly order, Polish king, Masovian duke, Pomerellian duke, Danish king or maybe Lithuanians if they are baptized.
 
Sorry for being absent that long. Thanks for the feedback.

IMO, there were a few geopolitical similarities between Baltic and Middle East crusades. Both had a "trigger state" (Middle east had ERE, Baltic got Poland). In both cases these two ultimately repented of calling crusades. While crusader states in the Mediterranean were not such a threat to Byzantium, Baltic case was different, as these crusades were much more a success that their middle east counterparts.

My thought is to recreate an scenario were Baltic crusades weren't that successful, thus, shrinking the western presence in pagan regions & allowing them to a more significant eastern influence (perhaps through religion). I think having Lithuania defeating the Germans at a right time would make the thing much harder for later crusaders, as they would fight rather organized foes. (Something similar happened at Middle east, were the initial crusaders had to fight against thye rather decadent Fatimids. But once stronger foes appeared (such as Saladin and Baybars) these states got quickly crushed, as reinforcements -which were the main source of military strength- had to travel from very far.)

Also with a defeated order, Novgorod may get involved. I'm actually unsure if there would be an alliance between both Orthodox and Pagan powers or they would start fighting each other instead.
 

MSZ

Banned
If the Knights Teutonic were defeated in Prussia, the order would have to relocate to some other area - possibly to Livonia, as it was close geographicly, and already had the Livonian Order present. This would most likely lead to the Ordenstaat being formed there, the local inhabitants exterminated as the prussians were OTL, and that state crusading southwards against Lithuania or Eastwards against Novogorod. The Prussians would not keep their independence long though - once Poland reunifies, it would seek to regain Pomeralia and most likely broaden it's access to sea attacking the Prussians and defeating them eventually if only thanks to superior numbers. German migration to Polish Prussia would still be present due to Ostsiedlung, just not as numerous and the Prussians themselves would most likely survive under polish rule like the Lithuanians did.
 
Top