WI: The Great Egyptian Revolt succeeded?

In 205 BC, native Egyptians, emboldened by their performance at Raphia and discontented with the current state of Egypt and continued Hellenic rule over the country, revolted under a leader known as Hugronaphor, and won back 80% of the country from the Ptolemies. Hugronaphor died in 197 BC, and was succeeded by Ankhmakis, but the revolt was eventually crushed, and the rest is history. Polybius described the revolt as having "no pitched battle, no naval battle, no siege", but there has to be a POD somewhere. Let's say Ptolemy V gets poisoned early on, leading to power struggles in the court at Alexandria, or Antiochus pushes on after Panium. What happens to Egypt as a result of indigenous rule being restored? What happens to the Seleucids? What happens to the Romans?
 
IIRC the only major city the rebels managed to take over was Thebes. Should Memphis be captured, they could be able to besiege Alexandria. Just promise the Romans not to screw with the grain trade and they won't interfere.
 
If the revolt somehow succeeds and a native dynasty restored to the throne there will be some backlash against the Greek population, but I doubt there would be a mass expulsion. Alexandria will no longer be the capital, that will probably be Memphis again.

Rome at the time was busy with Hannibal or the Macedonians, and at the time had practically no interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Seleucids however could see this as an opportunity and pose as the protectors of the local Greeks as an excuse to invade Egypt which will probably succeed.

There will be some influence on Egyptian religion, its unlikely the new native kings will keep sponsoring Hellenised cults like the one of Serapis, and more likely that they will focus on more traditional gods like Amun or Ra.
 
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Any post-Ptolemaic dynasty would make an effort to expel the Greek kleruchs owning the estates in ancient Egypt, at the risk of inviting a war with the Seleucid Empire, while attempting some sort of conciliatory approach to Hellenised cities such as Alexandria. Expect any notions of self-government to be curbed.
 
I think this will likely result in a Seleucid wank, any post-Ptolemaic dynasty would be military weaker by having to find a new source of mercenaries and re-create a navy, Greeks in the Delta, Ptolemaios and Fayyum would be likely calling on the Seleucids to help them, Cyrenaic and Cypriot Greeks would also break off.
 

Dolan

Banned
Greeks in the Delta, Ptolemaios and Fayyum would be likely calling on the Seleucids to help them, Cyrenaic and Cypriot Greeks would also break off.
most likely, the Greeks there would undergone an "Exodus" of some sort, getting settled in Syria or Mesopotamia as subjects of the Seleucids.

With more manpower, the Seleucids is likely to be able to held off the Arascids for longer.
 
most likely, the Greeks there would undergone an "Exodus" of some sort, getting settled in Syria or Mesopotamia as subjects of the Seleucids.

With more manpower, the Seleucids is likely to be able to held off the Arascids for longer.
I mean I was envisioning something like the Seleucid invading Egypt instead of just removing Ptolemaic presence from the Levant and Anatolia as they did IOTL.
 

Faeelin

Banned
If the revolt somehow succeeds and a native dynasty restored to the throne there will be some backlash against the Greek population, but I doubt there would be a mass expulsion.

I don't know about that. Look at the fate of the Italian population in Asia Minor when Mithridates rose up.
 
I don't know about that. Look at the fate of the Italian population in Asia Minor when Mithridates rose up.
If the Egyptians attempt a genocide against the Greek population it would certainly invite the wrath of the Seleucids and give them a good casus belli.
 
Would it be fair to say a thar successful selucid occupation of Egypt would be a great boon to the empire? If they got involved in Egypt I can’t see them invading Greece quite yet so they would get thrashed by the Romans. Instead they’d gain a very wealthy land that could ensure their treasury would never ben empty.
 
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